The Bartlett Development Planning Unit dpuISSUE 63 April news2018 In this issue: On climate change, risk and relocation See Focus on, page 2 Focus on On climate change, risk and relocation By Cassidy Johnson1 Climate change brings a particular set of heavier rainfall that can contribute to flash too expensive (Johnson et al, 2016). challenges for cities in the global south. The flooding, higher water tables and landslides As these examples illustrate, the manner people most affected are the poor living in places where there is inadequate drainage in which risk is defined, and by whom, in hazard-exposed locations or areas with infrastructure. Droughts can make water has a bearing on decisions about how to inadequate provision for basic services. scarcer and more expensive. Sea level rise approach risk mitigation. Risk is essentially Resettlement from high-risk areas has been can permanently inundate once habitable a subjective concept and the threshold considered a possible disaster risk reduction areas. Wind patterns are changing and, in of tolerable risk varies by circumstance. strategy in response to increased natural some places, becoming more intense. These Research suggests that individuals accept hazard risks and disasters brought on by impacts can lead to both intensive and a certain level of risk in their lives as urbanisation and climate change (Correa et smaller-scale disasters. necessary to avail themselves of certain al. 2011). However, as this piece will argue, For most people, disasters are not the benefits; benefit and risk have a directly the implementation of resettlement is rarely greatest threat, but rather an amplification proportional relationship: the higher the successful because more often than not it of their daily struggles. People live with benefit/need, the more willing individuals occurs in a top-down manner that fails to ‘tolerable risks’ to maximise the benefits will be to accept risk. Individuals take consider people’s view of risks and how of a certain location. The poorest live in calculated risks based on the amount of these are interwoven with people’s values areas exposed to hazards not by choice, information they have and their experiences and daily needs. Disaster risks need to be but because they are balancing the need in similar situations. considered as intrinsic to everyday life. for shelter against that for livelihood or Simply put, risk is indicated by the Recent DPU research on urban risk and employment opportunities, and the threat equation Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability/ relocation has looked at these issues and of a disaster may not be the highest priority. Capacity to act. But who decides the put into practice bottom-up methods of At some point there may be a tipping threshold of risk that is too great to bear? defining risk and risk mitigation strategies. point—maybe a disaster—that urges people What methodology do authorities use in Climate change is expected to impact to move of their own volition, or their their calculations in situations of potential on people living in urban areas in various circumstances change so that they no longer resettlement? There are two specific ways, and compounds the already existing need to ‘tolerate the risks.’ elements at play here, one is around power, problem of urban risk. The term ‘urban For example, in the Msasani and and which people or organisations have the risk’ covers a wide spectrum of risks that are Mtambani neighbourhoods of Dar es power to make decisions or take action, and created through the process of urbanisation Salaam, Tanzania, DPU research showed secondly, how those in power measure or – the concentration of people and assets that community members identify crime perceive risk. in places that are vulnerable to hazards. and poor solid waste management as being Legal and policy frameworks are Risks are usually not uniform across a the greatest risks, even though they live important elements in how governments city; they are concentrated specifically in areas highly prone to flooding (Ndeze, define and act on risks. Acceptability of in areas exposed to natural hazards such 2017). In Karonga, a small urban centre in societal risks has long been quantified when as steep slopes and flood plains, and Northern Malawi, community members it comes to engineering and geoscience in neighbourhoods lacking adequate identify hunger, floods, disease/epidemics practices, such as dam safety, flood hazards, infrastructure and services. Research shows and drought as the greatest risks (Manda or nuclear power plants. Each country that losses from the big intensive disaster and Wanda, 2017). The Bwaise and Natete defines its own set of risk acceptability, such events, such as earthquakes and volcanic neighbourhoods in Kampala, Uganda, as the UK’s National Risk Register of Civil eruptions, are actually eclipsed by the losses based in the low-laying wetlands of the Emergencies, based on scientific evidence from smaller or ‘everyday’ events, such city, are highly flood-prone. People tolerate and expert knowledge. The insurance as urban flooding, fires, traffic accidents, the almost daily occurrence of flooding industry routinely calculates risk to provide pollution, eviction and ill health from water during the rainy season because they have coverage for their clients while earning a and foodborne illnesses (United Nations, security of tenure in these areas, and life is profit (Nalla, 2017). 2015). The impacts of climate change come also affordable. However, it doesn’t mean When it comes to coping with natural on top of the already existing disasters that that people wouldn’t want to move if they hazards and the impacts of climate change many people in cities face. had the means. One family, who had lived on those living in informal settlements, Whilst cities in high-income nations with the flooding for many years, finally planning authorities and related government are more able to manage the effects of reached a tipping point when the mother agencies are too often seeking to reduce climate change, cities in many middle fell down in a torrent of water, and almost disaster risks by moving people, typically and low-income nations have very large drowned. They moved to a new location after a disaster, from hazard-exposed infrastructure deficits that make hazards for a couple of years, but eventually came locations. Many international funding and climate change much more difficult back and rebuilt their house on higher agencies as well as national and local to withstand. Climate change can bring foundations, because the rent elsewhere was governments simplistically assume 2 DPUNEWS: ISSUE 63 Right: Settlement adjacent to Kintom landfill site, Freetown. Photo by E. Osuteye. resettlement is a stand-alone tool for disaster risk management, an approach aided by legal and policy frameworks. For example, the concept of ‘un-mitigable risk areas’ in Colombia and Peru and ‘untenable’ areas in India, present visions of risk based on specific methodologies that are acted on by local level institutional actors. The data used for such decisions offers a limited view of risk and the risk mitigation options available. It underestimates adaptation strategies adopted by people living in hazard-prone areas. These laws are rigid, and often place too much power in the hands of the few (Jain et al., 2017). In Peru, new laws2 enable the regional and national governments to declare ‘un- mitigable’ risk areas. A ‘high un-mitigable risk’ area is defined as “a zone where the probability exists that the population and its livelihoods will suffer damage and loss because of the impact of events and where the implementation of mitigation measures leads to greater costs and complexity than relocating housing and urban infrastructure” (in Lavell, 2015). The methodology for defining un- mitigable risk is a calculation of the probability of natural hazards in a specific area based on frequency and magnitude, as well the vulnerability of people and structures, defined by exposure, fragility and resilience. There are parameters built into the methodology that defines the levels of property would be part of an organised relocation to other redevelopment/vacant high risk, medium risk and low risk, but the resettlement, but it is not clear what sites, preferably within the same zone.” ultimate value depends on the calculation happens when someone does not want to Un-tenable slums are those considered made by the assessor and experts. The final take part in the process, or what options to be located on major storm water or decision about whether to resettle people non-poor inhabitants have, such as those other drains, railway lines, to impede major is taken by the authorities, and does not in Belén, Peru, who have protested against transport alignment, the beds of rivers or directly include perspectives of the people their resettlement (Caceres, 2017). water bodies, or to exist in other hazardous who are to be resettled (Caceras, 2017). In India, ‘un-tenable’ is a term often or objectionable areas, including in close The recent nature of all these measures and used to justify moving people from areas proximity to high tension lines. However, criteria makes it impossible to judge their deemed to be hazardous. According to it is argued that a robust methodology efficacy at present. But, what is known is the guidelines of the Rajiv Awas Yojana for measuring tenability is not universally that the law assumes that the population is (RAY) slum improvement programme, applied, although suggestions for such a in agreement with being resettled, which “Untenable slums/vacant lands will be only methodology have been developed.3 As may not be the case (Lavell, 2015). The those which are a ‘safety’ or ‘health hazard’ low-income households build dwellings and law states that only prioritised populations to the inhabitants or their neighbourhoods, settlements over time, in-situ upgrading is who don’t have the means to move by even if redeveloped.