IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AUSTRALIA’S NATIONAL RESERVE SYSTEM A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment Michael Dunlop and Peter R. Brown CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Report to the Department of Climate Change, and the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts March 2008 Published by the Department of Climate Change ISBN: 978-1-921297-73-1 © Commonwealth of Australia 2008 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth, available from the Department of Climate Change. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to: Assistant Secretary Adaptation and Science Branch Department of Climate Change GPO Box 854 CANBERRA ACT 2601 Important Notice – please read This document is produced for general information only and does not represent a statement of the policy of the Australian Government. The Australian Government and all persons acting for the Government preparing this report accept no liability for the accuracy of or inferences from the material contained in this publication, or for any action as a result of any person’s or group’s interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in relying on this material. CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. Please cite this report as: Dunlop, M., & Brown, P.R. 2008. Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment. Report to the Department of Climate Change, February 2008. Department of Climate Change, Canberra, Australia. Front cover image credits From top: 1. Wilsons Promontory National Park, Victoria (J. Baker and DEWHA) 2. Paroo-Darling National Park, New South Wales (Andrew Tatnell) 3. Boolcoomatta Reserve, South Australia (Wayne Lawler for Bush Heritage Australia) 4. Mornington Sanctuary, WA (Australian Wildlife Conservancy) Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people contributed to this project and report through discussions, comments on early drafts and provision of written material. Sue McIntyre, Leanne Webb and Jim Rickets contributed substantially to the regional analyses in Part C. Other contributors included: Mike Austin, Steve Crimp, Saul Cunningham, Michael Doherty, Mark Howden, Darren Kriticos, Rohan Nelson, Sarah Pizzey, Lou Rodgerson, Andy Sheppard, Kate Stokes, Martin Taylor, Barry Traill, Kristen Williams, Graham Worboys, participants at the project workshop in February 2007 (see Part B, Appendix 4), members of the National Biodiversity Review Task Group and members of the National Reserve System Scientific Advisory Subgroup. Tim Bond provided the maps of the reserve system and agro-climatic zones. We are very appreciative of all your contributions. We benefited greatly from discussions at three recent meetings focussing on the impacts of climate change on protected areas: Australian Alps National Parks Conference April 2007, Parks Forum May 2007, and the WWF/WCPA Symposium in June 2007. We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. We also thank Veronica Doer, David Hilbert, Michael Doherty and Roger Jones for their thoughtful comments on drafts of the report. We thank the Department of Climate Change and the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts for the opportunity to undertake this project. In particular we acknowledge the cooperation, engagement, feedback and contributions made by Bruce Cummings, Tim Bond and Rachael Dempsey from Parks Australia, and Anna van Dugteren and Liz Dovey from the Department of Climate Change. Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment 3 PREFACE BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT Climate change increasingly presents a major challenge for biodiversity conservation planning in Australia and for managers of key natural assets such as protected areas. It is not only adding directly to more familiar risks such as habitat loss and degradation, invasive species and changes to fire regimes, but to the consequences of these threats themselves being affected by climate change. The more than 8,000 protected areas in Australia’s National Reserve System (NRS) represent the premier terrestrial biodiversity conservation investment in Australia. This network has been developed through collective efforts of the Australian Government, State and Territory governments, local government, non-government organisations and the community. Protected areas across Australia contain key areas for the protection of Australia’s biodiversity, including high conservation value native ecosystems which do not occur, or are limited in their occurrence outside of protected areas, plus core habitats for many native species of high conservation value. The strategic national approach to the establishment and management of a comprehensive, adequate and representative protected area system builds on the framework provided by the Directions for the National Reserve System - A Partnership Approach, endorsed by the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council in 2005. In 2006, the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) and Parks Australia commissioned the CSIRO to undertake a preliminary assessment – Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System – to provide an initial assessment of the implications of climate change for Australia’s national network of terrestrial protected areas. This report provides an overview of the state of knowledge on climate change and the NRS, including the likely impacts, key risks and knowledge gaps relevant to reserve system planning and policy decisions. A number of other Australian Government and intergovernmental initiatives are underway and will contribute to the understanding of risks to biodiversity and to natural areas as a result of climate change. These include a series of preliminary assessments on the implications of climate change for Australia’s World Heritage values and areas, for Australian Government managed reserves, for ecological water requirements, and for fire in relation to areas managed for biodiversity and to Australian biodiversity more broadly. In April 2007, the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework highlighting priority actions for a range of vulnerable sectors, including biodiversity, was endorsed by the Council of Australian Governments. The Australian Government is investing $126 million over five years in climate change adaptation policies, programs and research. A further $44 million is being invested in a CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. These initiatives will position Australia to manage risks arising from the impacts of climate change and will rely on strong partnerships between governments and decision- makers in industries and communities in all sectors. The success of this work program will rely on collaboration with government, research and industry partners to develop tools, techniques, and resources to assist biodiversity managers manage the challenges posed by climate change. Implications of climate change for Australia’s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment 4 CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .......................................................................................... 3 PREFACE BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT ................................................. 4 CONTENTS................................................................................................................ 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................ 9 Background ..........................................................................................................................9 Key findings of this project ...................................................................................................9 Part A - Impacts of climate change on biodiversity.............................................................10 Part B - Regional impacts of climate change......................................................................13 Part C - Implications for the National Reserve System ......................................................14 Summary of priority actions................................................................................................16