REPORT NO. R-21.6 SALINITY MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES FOR THE RECHNA DOAB, PUNJAB, PAKISTAN Volume Six Resource Use and Productivity Potential in the Irrigated Agriculture .. Waqar Ahmed Jehangir (Agriculture Economist) Nazim Ali (Research Assistant, Economics) MARCH 1991 PAKISTAN NATIONAL PROGRAM INTERNATIONAL IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE LAHORE w 9 339 c/ i A . Production Function Estimation for Wheat 1) Aggregate ......................................................................................................... 58 2) Case Selections................................................................................................ 59 B. Production Function Estimation for Cotton 1) Aggregate ......................................................................................................... 59 2) Case Selections................................................................................................. 60 C. Production Function Estimation for Rice 1) Aggregate .......................................................................................................... 60 2) Case Selections ................................................................................................. 61 b D . Production Function Estimation for Sugarcane c 1) Aggregate .......................................................................................................... 61 2) Case Selections................................................................................................. 62 VI . PROFITABILITY AND RETURNS TO MAJOR CROPS ...................................... 62 A . Cost of Production and Net Returns to Wheat Crop 1) District Level Analysis..................................................................................... 75 2) Farm Size and Location .................................................................................. 75 B . Cost of Production and Net Returns to Cotton Crop 1) District Level Analysis ..................................................................................... 76 2) Farm Size and Location .................................................................................. 76 C. Cost of Production and Net Returns to Rice Crop 1) District Level Analysis..................................................................................... 76 2) Farm Size and Location .................................................................................. 77 D . Cost of Production and Net Returns to Sugarcane Crop 1) District Level Analysis ..................................................................................... 77 2) Farm Size and Location .................................................................................. 78 VII . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................... 78 VIII . POLICY IMPLICATIONS .......................................................................................... 83 J. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 85 5 APPENDIX A Matrix of Simple Correlation between Different Variables of Production Functions for Major Crops ii List of Tables Table 1 Number of Farms and their Distribution in the Rechna Doab. 1995.96 ......... 2 Table 2 Total Farm Area and its Distribution in the Rechna Doab. 1960-95.............. 2 Table 3 Proportion of Cultivated to Total Farm Area and its Distribution in the Rechna Doab. 1960-95 ................................................................... 4 Table 4 Farm Size and Tenure in the Rechna Doab, 1972-95............................... 5 c c Table 5 Land Use Intensity across Farms in the Rechna Doab, 1960-95.................. 5 c Table 6 Cropping Intensity across Farms in the Rechna Doab, 1995....................... 7 Table 7 Tubewell Usage across Farms and their Distribution in the Rechna Doab . 1995....................................................................... 7 Table 8 Total Tractors and their DistributiodUsage across Farm Categories in the Rechna Doab. 1972-95................................................................... 8 Table 9 Total Cultivated Area Irrigated and its Distribution in the Rechna Doab. 1960-95................................................................... 8 Table 10 Number of Permanent Hired Laborers across Farms Size Groups in the Rechna Doab . 1960-95................................................................... 11 Table 11 Trends in Wheat Production with respect to Area and Productivity............. 22 Table 12 Trends in Rice Production with respect to Area and Productivity............... 24 Table 13 Trends in Cotton Production with respect to Area and Productivity ............ 27 Table 14 Trends in Sugarcane Production with respect to Area and Productivity ........ 28 Table 15 Percentage Distribution of Total Farm Holding and Total Farm Area across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab. 1995.............. 30 J. Table 16 Percentage Distribution of Operational Farm Area and Culturable Waste Area across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab, 1995....... 30 * Table 17 Farmers Perceptions about the Quality of Irrigation Water in the Rechna Doab, 1995...................................................................... 30 Table 18 Mode of Irrigation in the Rechna Doab. 1995...................................... 32 ... 111 Table 19 Farmers’ Perceptions about the Soil Conditions in the Rechna Doab, 1995... 32 Table 20 Land Utilization in the Rechna Doab, 1995......................................... 32 Table 21 Farmers Perceptions about the Drainage Conditions in the Rechna Doab, 1995..................................................................... 32 Table 22 Percentage Distribution of Total Farm Holdings and Total Farm Area across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab, 1990.............. 35 Table 23 Percentage Distribution of Operational Farm Area and Culturable Waste Area : across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab, 1990............. 35 i Table 24 Trends in Culturable Waste Area with respect to Farm Area Total.. .. , . .. .. 36 Table 25 Trends in Culturable Waste Area with respect to Farm Area and Proportion of Irrigated Area on Farms ................................................................ 37 Table 26 Trends in Cropping Intensity with respect to Farm Area Total ................ 39 Table 27 Trends in Cropping Intensity witin respect to Farm Area and Proportion of Irrigated Area on Farms ................................................................ 42 Table 28 Measures of Inefficiency in Cropping Intensity of Net Cultivated Area across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab, 1990..................... 43 Table 29 Measures of Inefficiency in Cropping Intensity of Net Cultivated Area across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab. 1995...................... 43 Table 30 Percentage Distribution of Additional Croppablc Land through Improveinent in Cropping Intensity across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab ..................................................................... 44 Table 31 Measures of Inefficiency in Total Land Use for the Rechna Doab ..............44 Table 32 Measures of Inefficiency in Total Land Use Farm Size Wise for the Rechna Doab ............................................................................. 44 z Table 33 Percentage Distribution of Additional Croppable Land through Improvement in Culturable Waste Area across Farm Size Groups and Districts in the Rechna Doab .......................................................... 45 (I Table 34 Districts-wise Increase in Cropped Area through Improvement in Cropping Intensity and Use of Presently Culturable Waste Area in the Rechna Doab.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ,. .. .. .. .. .. , . .. .. .. .45 iv ! Table 35 Share of Major Crops in Total Cropped Area in the Districts of the Rechna Doab (percent). .. .. .. .. .. .. , . , . .. 48 Table 36 Potential Increments in Area Under Major Crops in the Districts of the Rechna Doab (ha) ............................................................... 48 Table 37 Potential Increments in Production of Major Crops in the Rechna Doab (metric tonnes) ......................................................... 48 Table 38 Reasons for Keeping Farm Area Fallow ............................................ 49 *L Table 39 Regression Results Relating Wheat Production per Farm with Selected Inputs on Farms in the Rechna Doab, Pakistan............................................. 50 m. Table 40 Production Functions for the Wheat Crop Corresponding to Selected Case Definitions for Constraints to Productivity.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 51 Table 41 Regression Results Relating Cotton Production per Farm with Selected Inputs on Farms in the Rechna Doab, Pakistan ...................... .... ... ........ ....... 52 Table 42 Production Functions for the Cotton Crop Corresponding to Selected Case Definitions for Constraints to Productivity.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 53 Table 43 Regression Results Relating Rice Production per Farm with Selected Inputs on Farms in the Rechna Doab, Pakistan......... ... ....... ...................... ... 54 Table 44 Production Functions for the Rice Crop Corresponding to Selected Case Definitions for Constraints to Productivity.. .. .. .. .. .. 55 Table 45 Regression Results Relating Sugarcane Production per Farm with Selected Inputs on Farms in the Rechna Doab, Pakistan ...........................................