Climate Change Resilience Plan Vulnerability Assessment & Response Strategies 2017 | Working Document 2.0 Prepared for MAGIC Regional Council http://www.mapc.org/magic Prepared by Metropolitan Area Planning Council 60 Temple Place, 6th Floor Boston, Massachusetts 02111 Tel (617) 451-2770 www.mapc.org Working Draft V2.0 2 CONTENTS Context ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 Why Plan for Climate Change in the MAGIC Region? ......................................................................... 9 Planning Process.......................................................................................................................................... 10 Starting Points for the Region .................................................................................................................. 15 Document Guide ............................................................................................................................................... 7 Regional Profile .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Local Government ....................................................................................................................................... 10 Demographics .............................................................................................................................................. 11 Health Status ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Vulnerable Population Groups................................................................................................................. 11 Economy ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 Natural Resources ....................................................................................................................................... 14 Built Environment ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Transportation ............................................................................................................................................. 15 Climate Change Projections and Impacts to MAGIC Region .................................................................. 20 Climate Change to Date ........................................................................................................................... 20 Climate Change Modelling ....................................................................................................................... 20 Developing a Regional Climate Change Scenario for the MAGIC Region ..................................... 22 Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................................................................... 34 Assessment Approach................................................................................................................................. 34 Alignment with other plans ........................................................................................................................ 35 Vulnerability Assessment Findings ................................................................................................................ 36 Terrestrial Habitat and Species ............................................................................................................... 37 Aquatic Habitats and Species .................................................................................................................. 44 Drinking Water Infrastructure .................................................................................................................. 51 Stormwater Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................... 58 Wastewater Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................ 65 Land Use and Buildings ............................................................................................................................. 71 Transportation Infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 81 Energy Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................. 87 Human Health and Welfare ..................................................................................................................... 91 Outdoor Workers .................................................................................................................................... 103 Agriculture ................................................................................................................................................. 106 Local Economy: Health Care .................................................................................................................. 110 Local Economy: Tourism .......................................................................................................................... 114 Local Government .................................................................................................................................... 118 Potential Vulnerabilities Requiring Additional Research .................................................................. 122 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies .................................................................................................... 124 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 124 Priorities Identified For the MAGIC Region ............................................................................................ 128 Starting Points for the Region ............................................................................................................... 129 Layering on New Strategies .................................................................................................................. 129 Guide to the Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies ............................................................................ 130 Working Draft V2.0 3 1 Prepare the Local Government and Monitor the Local Economy ........................................... 131 2 Monitor and Apply Local Predictions for Climate Changes .................................................... 139 3 Protect Natural Resources and Maximize Use of Ecosystem Services ................................... 140 4 Increase Use of Clean Energy and Green Building Measures ................................................ 150 5 Enforce and Enhance Regulatory Measures Affecting the Built Environment ....................... 154 6 Maintain and Protect Critical Infrastructure ............................................................................... 161 7 Safeguard Health and Human Resources ................................................................................... 165 Working Draft V2.0 4 Figures Figure 1. Map of MAGIC Region .................................................................................................................. 9 Figure 2. MAGIC Towns by Population ...................................................................................................... 10 Figure 3. MAGIC Employment by Industry, 2015 .................................................................................... 13 Figure 4. Number of Farms in MAGIC Towns ............................................................................................ 14 Figure 5. Number of farms and their primary activities/products ........................................................ 14 Figure 6. How climate projections are calculated. ................................................................................... 22 Figure 7. Boston Area projected increases in average summer temperatures ................................... 24 Figure 8. High Heat Days in Middlesex County ....................................................................................... 25 Figure 9. Precipitation Projections ............................................................................................................... 26 Figure 10. Current Floodplains and areas of exposure .......................................................................... 30 Figure 11. Assessment approach ................................................................................................................. 34 Figure 12. Forest Macro groups. ................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 13. Emerald Ash Borer, Asian Longhorn Beetle, Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (left to right) .... 41 Figure 14. Vernal pools and developed land .......................................................................................... 47 Figure 15. OARS Assabet, Sudbury, and Concord Sampling Sites ......................................................