THE COST OF CRASHES An analysis of lives lost and injuries on NSW roads May 2017 About the NRMA Better road and transport infrastructure has been a core focus of the NRMA since 1920 when our founders lobbied for improvements to the condition of Parramatta Road in Sydney. Independent advocacy was the foundation activity of the organisation and remains critical to who we are as we approach our first centenary. From humble beginnings, the NRMA has grown to represent over 2.4 million Australians principally from NSW and the ACT. The NRMA also provides motoring, mobility and tourism services to our Members and the community. Today, the NRMA works with policy makers and industry leaders to advocate for increased investment in road infrastructure and transport solutions to make mobility safer, provide access for all and to deliver sustainable communities. By working together with all levels of government to deliver integrated transport options we can give motorists a real choice about how they get around. The NRMA believes that integrated transport networks, including efficient roads, high-quality public transport and improved facilities for cyclists and pedestrians, are essential to solve the challenge of growing congestion and provide for the future growth of our communities. Comments & Queries NRMA PO Box 1026 Strathfield NSW 2135 Email: [email protected] Web: mynrma.com.au Contents Introduction 2 The Cause for Concern 3 Calculating the Cost 4 The Cost of Road Crashes 5 Trends in Casualty Numbers 5 Total Cost of Road Trauma 5 Lives Lost 8 Serious Injuries 8 Moderate Injuries 9 Minor Injuries 9 The Cost of Casualties to the Regions 10 Sydney Region 10 Regional NSW 10 The Cost of Casualties by NSW Highways 14 Princes Highway (Sydney to Victorian Border) 16 Pacific Highway (North Sydney to Tweed Heads) 16 Mitchell Highway (Bathurst to Dubbo) 16 Great Western Highway (Sydney to Bathurst) 17 Oxley Highway (Port Macquarie to Nevertire) 17 Newell Highway (Tocumwal to Goondiwindi) 17 Sturt Highway (Hume Highway near Gundagai to Mildura) 18 New England Highway (Hexham to Wallangarra) 18 Hume Highway (Ashfield to Albury) 18 References 19 Appendix 20 Regions by Local Government Areas 20 The Cost of Crashes | 1 Introduction Keeping Australians safe on our roads is a key part of This report contains an analysis of the number of lives why the NRMA exists. Safe mobility is a core of focus lost and casualties on NSW roads, quantifying the cost by of the NRMA. It is incorporated into every aspect of region and main arterial road. our business. We aim to protect vulnerable road users, encourage safer driving including the purchase of safer During 2011-2015, 1,723 people lost their lives on vehicles, and promote increased investment in road and NSW roads, costing the community $12.4 billion. When public transport infrastructure. considering all serious, moderate and minor injuries, the total cost of crashes equals $35.7 billion. As humans we sometimes make mistakes, even on our roads. The NRMA believes these mistakes should not While there has been a decrease in the number of lives result in the loss of life or serious injury. We want to lost between 2006-2010 and 2011-2015, the number of ensure all Australians arrive safely at their destination serious injuries has increased over the same period, with whether it be at home, work or their holiday destination. notable increases recorded in the Hunter and Illawarra regions. Between 2006-2010 and 2011-2015, there was Over the past decade there has been a steady decline a 4.0 per cent increase in the total number of serious in the number of lives lost of NSW roads. This is a injuries, costing local communities $17.8 billion. significant achievement, and the NRMA welcomes the NSW Government’s target of reducing the annual road Both the Mitchell and Great Western Highways recorded toll by 30 per cent by 2021.1 increases in serious injuries over the 2011-15 period, while the Oxley Highway was the only arterial road to However, during 2015 and 2016 there has been an record an increase in fatalities, costing the community upward trend in the number of lives lost on NSW roads. $186.8 million over the five year period 2011-15. This increase in the loss of life is unacceptable. We must collectively work together to reverse this trend. Policy makers and local communities deserve to better understand the cost and impact of road crashes. It is important to understand the trends in road More and better information is an important first step casualties including the impact fatalities and injuries towards more effective infrastructure investment, road have on our community. maintenance and public education campaigns. 1. Transport for NSW. (2012). NSW Road Safety Strategy 2012 -2021. The Cost of Crashes | 2 The Cause for Concern The NRMA supports the NSW Government’s target to There will never be an acceptable number of lives lost on reduce annual road deaths and serious injuries by at our roads and industry, government and the community least 30 per cent by 2021.2 The NSW road toll has been need to work together to continue to reduce the NSW trending down for a number years with the 2014 road road toll. The NRMA will continue to shoulder some of toll the lowest since 1923, as shown in Figure 1. this responsibility, championing safer vehicles, road upgrades and education campaigns to ensure all road However, in 2016 the road toll rose for the second users arrive safely at their destination. consecutive year. This upward trend is alarming, and if the current trend continues, NSW is in danger of failing to achieve its 2021 target of reducing annual road deaths and serious injuries (Figure 2). Figure 1. Number of lives lost on NSW roads from January to December 2000 to 2016.3 650 603 600 561 539 550 524 510 508 496 500 453 450 436 405 400 374 384 364 369 350 350 333 Number of fatalities 307 300 250 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 January to December – Twelve Month Period Figure 2. Actual and projected NSW road fatality rates from 2000 to 2021. 10 9 8 7 6.42 6 5.67 5.02 (Sep) 4.85 (395 fatalities) 5 5.04 5.05 4 Actual Fatality Rate 4.50 4.59 4.09 3 NSW 2021 Target Fatality Rate 3.38 (275 fatalities) 2 Projected Fatality Rate Road Fatalities per 100,000 Population Road 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year 2. Transport for NSW. (2012). NSW Road Safety Strategy 2012 -2021. 3. Note: 2016 is a provisional road toll figure. The Cost of Crashes | 3 Calculating the Cost The Willingness to Pay methodology has been used to scenarios that are systematically varied based on safety, calculate the cost of casualties on NSW roads for the travel time and cost metrics. Econometric models are five-year periods 2006-2010 and 2011-2015. specified and developed to statistically estimate the monetised valuation of safety. The Willingness to Pay Casualty values were estimated based on the Willingness approach is recommended by Transport for NSW for to Pay approach that uses a measure of the amount valuing road trauma. individuals are willing to pay for casualty prevention.4 These values are derived from Stated Preference surveys Below are the Willingness to Pay values that represent the where respondents are asked to choose hypothetical amount people are willing to pay to avoid death or injury. Table 1. Value per Person, Willingness to Pay Approach March 2016 ($) Urban Rural Average WTP value per casualty Value of fatality risk prevention $6,810,073 $7,471,119 $7,116,982 Value of serious injury risk prevention $245,674 $381,037 $292,895 (requiring hospitalisation) Value of moderate injury prevention $51,725 $69,878 $60,092 (attendance at emergency department) Value of minor injury prevention $51,725 $69,878 $60,092 Value of unknown injury type prevention $120,483 $171,432 $139,225 For the purposes of this report, urban Willingness to Pay Through the data linkage project, total serious injuries rates have been applied to the Sydney Region and the comprise both matched and unmatched data. Matched Newcastle and Wollongong metropolitan areas. Rural data indicates a hospitalisation has been verified and rates applied to the rest of NSW. linked to a police report. Matched data represents 55 per cent of all incidents. For the purposes of this report and Note: ‘Matched’ and Unmatched Serious Injuries to allow for analysis at a regional level, serious injuries Transport for NSW has identified the number of serious matched to police reports has been used only when injuries from crashes on NSW public roads by linking calculating the cost of crashes at a regional level and by data from NSW Health, the State Insurance Regulatory main arterial road. This means figures quoted are likely Authority (SIRA), icare (Insurance & Care NSW) and the to be conservative estimates. NSW Police Force.5 4. Transport for NSW. (2016). Principles and Guidelines for Economic Appraisal of Transport Investment and Initiatives: Transport Economic Appraisal Guidelines. 5. Transport for NSW. (2016). Serious Injuries in NSW 2005 to 2015. Reporting on Methodology and Results. The Cost of Crashes | 4 The Cost of Road Crashes Trends in Casualty Numbers Total Cost of Road Trauma During 2011-2015, 1,723 lives were lost and 129,320 During 2011-15, the cost of trauma on NSW roads people were injured on NSW roads.