Environmental Risk and Adaptation in Two Coastal Municipalities in the Philippines Lindy Williams, Joy Arguillas, Florio Arguillas Introduction The American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014:1) recently argued that The oerhelig eidee of hua-caused climate change documents both current ipats ith sigifiat osts ad etraordiar future risks to soiet ad atural sstes. Furtherore, a people do ot et uderstad that there is a sall, but real chance of arupt, upreditale ad potetiall irreersile hages ith highl daagig ipats… aroud the orld. Our researh ill idetif pereptios of eiroetal risks i the Philippines, a country that has a long history of significant environmental degradation and one that has also experienced recent catastrophic weather-related events, including super-typhoon Haiyan (known locally as Typhoon Yolanda), which destroyed much of Tacloban, the capital city of the province of Leyte in 2013. Other typhoons that are less well known to those living outside of Southeast Asia have also caused significant damage to coastal communities in recent years. Longer term consequences of climate change are increasingly anticipated in the Philippines, as well as in countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region, much of which is very densely populated and settled in low-lying coastal areas. The potential for widespread human displacement is considered real and it is thus garnering attention in some policy circles. We attempt to understand the ways in which those living in two potentially high-risk coastal communities in the Philippines have been experiencing coastal flooding in recent years, and how they are envisioning their future options. Although extensive displacement from flooding events is considered likely by numerous liate sholars, others reject the deterministic view that directly links climate change to mass migration. Instead, they recognize that the linkages are complex and operate through social, political, economic, and demographic drivers, with migration being just one of many possible adaptations to environmental change (Fussell, Hunter, and Gray, 2014: 182). We take this cautionary as a starting point for our research. We draw on the literature on climate change and risk assessment and adaptation to frame our analysis of field observations, focus group interviews and key informant interviews. We address the following questions: (1) How are local people in flood-prone communities experiencing gradual change on a day-to-day basis and dramatic events on an occasional basis, and what changes are they making to prepare for ongoing or worsening conditions? (2) Might the answer to Question 1 vary according to gender, class, or community? (3) What is being done at the local level to mitigate risk for community members and what do local officials report as their recent accomplishments and greatest challenges when it comes to gradual change and dramatic events? The paper we plan to write for PAA will be based on a small preliminary study that will inform a larger survey to follow. Our answers to question 2 are thus tentative and we will not be able to present generalizable findings from the data we have. We do identify community variability in risk mitigation, however, and we will be developing hypotheses about the ways in which men and women may differ or concur in their experiences of and responses to local environmental conditions. Data and methods We purposively selected field sites in low lying neighborhoods, or barangays, in two municipalities in neighboring provinces in the Philippines, Hagonoy, Bulacan and Malabon, Metro Manila. Both municipalities are prone to significant flooding. A coastal town, Hagonoy is flood-prone as a result of heavy typhoon and monsoon rains, as well as due to high tides from Manila Bay. It also experiences back-flooding from the neighboring provinces of Pampanga and Nueva Ecija through the Pampanga River System, as flood waters flush through Manila Bay (Bulacan Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan). Barangay San Nicolas, our research site in this province, lies along the Hagonoy River. Malabon is also a coastal city, and is also apt to flood, primarily as a result of high tides and heavy rains. Three river systems (Navotas, Tullahan and Malabon) link the Malabon River to Manila Bay. The field sites for this municipality, barangays Tinajeros and Catmon, are bounded by river beds that make them particularly vulnerable to flooding. All authors on this study took part in fieldwork conducted between April and June of 2016. The barangays included for this study were identified through the assistance of local leaders who were knowledgeable about the extent of flooding in both municipalities. We conducted four focus groups (two with men and two with women) in each field site. All participants were married and were between the ages of 21 and 50 years of age. Group participants were also selected according to socioeconomic status (SES), and all participants were either low SES, or lower-middle SES. The focus group discussions (FGDs) lasted, on average, about 1.5 hours. Hagonoy Women Men Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Malabon Women Men Lower SES Lower-Middle SES Lower SES Lower-Middle SES In addition to FGDs conducted with community residents, we interviewed key informants, including local leaders in the barangay and city/municipality officials, in order to obtain information on the social and environmental conditions of the area and to learn about local government initiatives to mitigate risk and vulnerabilities in each area. A Few Preliminary Findings Disaster Risk Management – Community Response Each community is expected to establish a Barangay Disaster Committee to implement the cits disaster risk ad aageet progras. NGOs pla a role traiig residets about how to prepare for disasters, including when and how to evacuate. Most resident we interviewed have survival bags consisting of water, flashlights, medicine, and food for several days. Many have had experience with severe storm events, including with storms Ondoy (2009) ad Haagat that aused floodig higher tha a persos head. This experience has made many of them more responsive to calls for early evacuation. In the past, people would resist evacuating until the water was waist-level deep, and some would not leave at all due to fears that their homes would be looted. Now many evacuate before the flood event begins. Communities have also established a communication system to warn people of impending disasters. Community leaders claim to have identified each of the vulnerable individuals in their communities, such as elderly and disabled individuals who would need assistance during a disaster. Community leaders communicate flood forecasts to sitio leaders, who then relay those warnings to the residents under their purview through text messaging and knocking door- to-door. In Catmon and Tinajeros (the field site barangays in Malabon), specific local government initiatives have included improved drainage systems and the construction of a seawall and a pumping station. As a result, residents now experience considerably fewer routie flooding events than had previously been occurring. In San Nicolas (in the other province of Bulacan), some adaptive measures have also been implemented by the local government, including raising the roads so that vehicles are more likely to be able to operate during flooding events. Residents in San Nicolas, however, are still exposed to very frequent flooding as a result of tidal iursio. Durig high tide, ost alles leadig to respodets houses get flooded eause they are now much lower than the elevated roads. Some residents who have the financial resources to do so, respond to this by raising the lower levels of their homes. Those who do not have those resources live with and prepare for the high tide by putting their personal belongings on a higher shelf or on stacked objects, such as empty soda cases, in their homes. Adaptation at the individual level - Preparing for a flood when advance warning is available Residing in flood prone communities, residents have learned to adapt and prepare for imminent flooding in their communities. During impending heavy rains or typhoons, residents move their appliances and personal belongings to a higher level, usually the 2nd floor of their homes or even to the roof. They report buying portable electronic appliances and portable gas stoves precisely so that they can carry them up the second level of their homes. Others who do not have a second floor leash their appliances or their furniture to posts or something secure, while they put their personal belongings in plastic bags. Those who keep dogs as pets move them to the second floor as well. Often they let bulky wooden furniture, such as cabinets and dressers, go underwater because of limited space on the upper level of their homes and they dry up easy. [Appliances that are submerged in water are left to dry for days before they are used again]. Once these preparations are made, residents who choose to evacuate close their doors and windows and hope that their belongings are not washed away in the flood. Threat or Opportunity? Most residents view severe flooding events as (1) posing a potential threat to their health and community health (e.g., due to skin diseases or mosquito-borne illnesses), and (2) creating the potential for catastrophic destruction of property (e.g., housing ruined/swept away, fish ponds collapsed) as well as for less severe property damage (e.g., housing filled with mud and garbage). And our narratives will reflect this. Nonetheless, some respondents said they find ways to benefit from local flooding. This point was raised in one of the FGDs of men who reported that the get free fish he theres floodig i their ouit: Renato: The rise of water here is not abrupt or sudden to the point that it instantaneously reaches your house. Most of the people here know how to swim.