L I B Y A D E S K @L I B Y A DE S K A REVIEW OF @L I B Y A DE S K POLITI C AL RISK DOSSIER #001 ISSUE N.1 | MARCH • 23 • 2019 WWW. L I B Y A DE S K . C OM WWW.LIBYADESK.COM PAGE | 01 MARCH 23RD, 2019 REVIEW: COUNTRY FORECAST, LIBYA The recent weeks have seen a dramatic escalation of violence in Libya. Unfortunately, the majority of risks threatening the Libyan political solution forecasted by Libya Desk have been realised. Libya Desk believes that the Libyan National Army (LNA) “Flood Of Dignity” Operation is the culmination of several factors that have long gone unaddressed. International observers, commentators and stakeholders have long since underestimated the capabilities of Khalifa Haftar’s forces, giving little credit to the once unimaginable achievements of controlling the east and, to an extent, the south. The weaponization of media is partially responsible for this given that all media outlets in Libya are privately owned organisations with their own agendas, often focused on discrediting and derailing the political peace process. In contrast to popular opinion, in our first Dossier, Libya Desk stressed the likelihood of a Haftar offensive in the West. This statement has been by far the most commented on by our recipients, as they were hedging their bets on Haftar holding through to the Abu Dhabi agreement. What is happening in The following pages will review what Libya Desk LIBYA? forecasted in the first Political Risk Dossier. POLITICAL RISK DOSSIER, ISSUE 1 PAGE | 02 WWW.LIBYADESK.COM MARCH 23RD, 2019 REVIEW: THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS IN LIBYA Libya is today split between two camps with Khalifa Haftar gradually emerging as the dominant figure in the country, aligned with the regional administration in the East, and opposing the internationally recognised government in the West. The Tripoli based Presidential Council (PC) is fragile and weak, its only assets being international recognition, title and access to state funds. The PC has been fragmenting for the last 6 months. The most evident divisions being between Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteeq, who has a business first and last mindset, and Prime Minister Fayez al- Sarraj, who is struggling to maintain political relevance. Contrastingly, LNA strongman Khalifa Haftar and his forces swept through the South and took full control of the region and its oil fields. While all domestic and international observers were focused on the LNA’s surprisingly successful campaign in the south, Haftar has been hard at work. He has been absorbing more military, political and tribal factions into his army, while cleaning house and strengthening his hold on What is happening in the East. Now with a reinforced military structure and newly gained territory, Haftar positions his troops in the country’s centre, in preparations for a Sirte offensive, with eyes set for Tripoli. LIBYA? WWW.LIBYADESK.COM PAGE | 03 MARCH 23RD, 2019 The blueprint drawn up in Abu Dhabi, along with a roadmap to elections, would have REVIEW: likely been presented at UNSMIL’s National Conference from April 14th to April 16th in 3-MONTH Ghadames, Libya. To ensure that all political bodies in Libya FORECAST conform to the coming changes, Under- Secretary General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo visited Libya in order to In an attempt to avoid an all out war over “herd the cattle” as one UN official told Libya Tripoli, Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Desk. hosted talks in late February between Haftar and Sarraj in Abu Dhabi, mediated Libya Desk met with some of the officials by the UN SRSG Ghassan Salamé. Shaky mentioned in the box below who confirmed at first, a source informed Libya Desk their nominations. However, most cautioned that the two men finally came to an that the official confirmation of their roles agreement, mainly thanks to pressure highly depended on the results of the from the US. UNSMIL announced that an National Conference, with some still remain agreement that both men agreed to hold apprehensive of foreign and domestic elections in Libya this coming October. meddling. THE ABU DHABI BLUE PRINT The blueprint drawn up in Abu Dhabi consisted of: Reforming the Presidential Council Fayez al-Sarraj to step down as Prime Minister, likely replaced by Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ Cabinet reshuffle would have excluded the current Minister of ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ Replacement of Mustafa Sanalla as NOC chief with Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ Replacement of Al-Siddiq Al-Kabeer as Governor of the Central Bank of Libya by Mr. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ Haftar as head of the newly unified Libyan Army and ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 0 2 POLITICAL RISK DOSSIER, ISSUE 1 PAGE | 04 WWW.LIBYADESK.COM MARCH 23RD, 2019 REVIEW: PROJECTED VARIABLES Major changes expected to take place at the NOC, The weeks building up to the National Conference where the incoming Chief plans to carry out a full will prove very arduous for Ghassan Salamé, as he review, and open investigations into the conflict of will need to navigate through a minefield of interest charges facing Sanalla when it was found domestic and international interferences and put out that he has been doubling as a Private out any flames that may risk either al-Sarraj or Consultant to companies such as Haftar backing out of the Abu Dhabi agreement. ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ during his visits to London. A second meeting between Sarraj and Haftar expected to take place in the coming weeks in Geneva or Cairo. SIGN UP TO Before Ramadan this May, Haftar would have taken over Sirte, and entered Tripoli with assistance from two of the four major militias controlling it. It is LIBYA also crucial to note that LNA has brigades stationed 40km from the capital in Gharyan and that the majority of municipalities and Tribes of the West have declared their support to the military DESK strongman. His last two remaining variables remain to be Misrata and Zintan. If Salamé maintains his current momentum, and MEMOS succeeds in convincing the 9 individuals Libya Desk deems crucial for an all out successful conference, LIBYADESK.COM/SUBSCRIBE we should see a more effective unified government managing Libya. POLITICAL RISK DOSSIER, ISSUE 1 WWW.LIBYADESK.COM PAGE | 05 MARCH 23RD, 2019 REVIEW: MAJOR RISKS FORECASTED Weaponization of media/social media by all political parties resulting in a rumour and fake news bombardment that is further inciting divisions Fear of a Haftar offensive in Western Libya resulting in the resurfacing of extremist factions such as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group that have spent the last two years disguised among separate factions and government institutions Alarmed by the likelihood of losing influence in Libya, Qatar and Turkey double down by further supporting their proxies on the ground An increase in terrorist activities to be expected throughout the country in hopes to destabilize any reconciliation efforts and prolonging the current status quo Abu Dhabi agreement at risk as Haftar is entertaining a second offer from ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓, while al-Sarraj is breaking under pressures from Libyan militias in the Majors threats to the West to back out and stand against the LNA peace process in strongman. LIBYA POLITICAL RISK DOSSIER, ISSUE 1 ABOUT LIBYA DESK Libya Desk was founded on a wayward spirit of offering undiluted access to information across the Libyan political spectrum. We recognise that there is a problem of ethics and integrity in the biased, information-saturated media landscape that exists around Libya at the present day. By adhering to the highest standards of research and ascribing to solid principles of trust and integrity, Libya Desk aims to provide a reliable source of information and consultation on politics in Libya. Click here to read the Libya Desk Promise. OUR MISSION Our mission is to provide clear, unbiased information on what is happening in Libya. With an unmatched network, Libya Desk is equipped with more information and more common sense than what is otherwise accessible on the market today. We strive to serve our clients in navigating Libya’s complex political and economic landscape by providing objective consultation and reliable information on Libya. Headquartered in London, with field offices in Rome, Tunis and Tripoli, Libya Desk provides reliable and valid analysis on the state of affairs in Libya. Whether you are a private individual, a corporate entity, or a governmental body, Libya Desk can help you make sense of what is going on in Libya. We bring extensive experience to every case and customize our support to your individual goals and objectives. @L I B Y A DE S K E DI T OR @L I B Y A DE S K . C OM @L I B Y A DE S K WWW. L I B Y A DE S K . C OM.