Report of the 34th Session of WCRP Joint Scientific Committee Carlton Hotel, Brasília, Brazil, 27-31 May 2013 August 2013 WCRP Report No. 22/2013 Table of Contents 1. Opening Ceremony....................................................................................................4 2. Current status and directions of WCRP development...................................5 3. Dialogue with Sponsors and Stakeholders .......................................................8 3.1 WMO and the Global Framework for Climate Services ..............................8 3.2 ICSU and Future Earth ........................................................................................ 10 3.3 IOC and Integrated Framework for Sustained Ocean Observations... 11 4. JPS developments, program, personnel, and budget.................................. 13 5. Agency Updates ....................................................................................................... 14 5.1 NOAA......................................................................................................................... 14 5.2 CEOS, CGMS, and EUMETSAT ............................................................................ 15 5.3 ECMWF..................................................................................................................... 17 6. WCRP Grand Science Challenges ....................................................................... 18 6.1 Regional climate information.......................................................................... 19 6.1.1 WGRC .................................................................................................................... 19 6.1.2 CORDEX................................................................................................................ 20 6.1.3 The Latin America and Caribbean Conference....................................... 22 6.1.4 Africa Climate Conference ............................................................................. 24 6.1.5 APN ........................................................................................................................ 26 6.1.6 Implementation of the Regional GC............................................................ 28 6.2 Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity ................................................ 30 6.3 Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.................................................................. 32 6.4 Attribution and prediction of extreme events ........................................... 34 6.5 Changes in water availability........................................................................... 37 6.6 Regional sea-level ................................................................................................ 40 6.7 Discussion of the WCRP Grand Science Challenges .................................. 43 7. WCRP Councils......................................................................................................... 44 7.1 WMAC....................................................................................................................... 44 7.2 WDAC........................................................................................................................ 46 8. Core projects ............................................................................................................ 47 8.1 CLIVAR ..................................................................................................................... 47 8.2 CliC ............................................................................................................................ 51 8.3 GEWEX ..................................................................................................................... 53 8.4 SPARC ....................................................................................................................... 57 2 9. Science presentations by host nation .............................................................. 60 10. Pan-WCRP modelling groups ........................................................................... 61 10.1 WGCM .................................................................................................................... 61 10.2 WGSIP .................................................................................................................... 64 10.3 WGNE ..................................................................................................................... 65 11. WCRP partnerships and joint initiatives...................................................... 67 11.1 Subseasonal to seasonal prediction project............................................. 67 11.2 Polar Climate Prediction Initiative.............................................................. 69 11.3 GCOS....................................................................................................................... 72 11.4 IGBP........................................................................................................................ 73 11.5 WWRP.................................................................................................................... 75 12. IPCC: What next?................................................................................................... 77 13. WCRP communication and capacity development ................................... 79 14. Membership of constituent bodies ................................................................ 82 15. JSC activities........................................................................................................... 84 16. Concluding Session.............................................................................................. 84 17. Date and place for the next Session ............................................................... 85 18. Session closure...................................................................................................... 86 Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 87 APPENDIX A – List of Participants...................................................................................... 88 APPENDIX B – JSC-34 Agenda............................................................................................... 93 APPENDIX C – Status of actions agreed at JSC-33 in 2012.......................................... 96 APPENDIX D – WGRC ToRs (as updated by JSC-34 on 30 May 2013)....................103 APPENDIX E – Actions resulting from JSC-34 decisions............................................104 APPENDIX F – List of used abbreviations ......................................................................114 3 1. Opening Ceremony The JSC Chair, Tony Busalacchi opened the 34th JSC Session at the Hotel Carlton, Brasília, Brazil, at 0915 on 27 May 2013. He greeted the participants and passed the floor to Carlos Nobre, who addressed the participants on behalf of the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovations (MSTI) and on behalf of all Brazilian climate scientists. Dr. Nobre, representing the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), started his welcoming address by recalling that he used to be a member of JSC, and it was therefore a great pleasure for him to greet the JSC in Brazil for the first time and to see some old friends in the meeting room. He expressed appreciation to WCRP for making the capital of the country, Brasília, the venue of choice, which was indicative of the true wish of the JSC to stronger engage Brazilian climate science in the WCRP activities. Carlos Nobre emphasized the importance of the WCRP for the world and said that the local organisers felt very honoured to be able to host the JSC meeting in Brazil. The highlights of developments in Brazil included the creation of the National Ocean Research Institute, expansion of the national observing networks, both in situ and in space, establishing a national policy to reduce carbon emissions (with ∼38% actual reduction between 2005 – 2011), work on reducing deforestation, implementation of policies for low carbon economic growth, especially in agriculture and energy sectors, and many other positive developments. Climate research is on the rise in the country. There is significant funding for adaptation research. Brazil is developing an Earth System Model. Progress has been achieved in seasonal prediction of droughts and understanding of the role of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in creating conditions favourable for droughts. Dr. Nobre concluded his welcome address by wishing the JSC to have a very successful and productive meeting and an enjoyable stay in Brasília. In response, Director of WCRP, Ghassem Asrar thanked Dr. Nobre and Brazilian hosts for inviting the JSC to Brazil and Brasília. He said that the progress achieved in Brazil on so many aspects of climate observations, research and climate risk management, as presented by Dr. Nobre, was very impressive. He thanked the local volunteers for their wish to help in conducting the meeting and thanked the meeting attendees for travelling from afar to take part in the JSC Session. Dr. Busallacchi also thanked Carlos Nobre for his welcoming address and recalled his own first visit to Brazil more than 20 years ago, which foreshadowed the establishment of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the PIRATA array, both instrumental in expanding regional research on droughts.