WORKING PAPER No. 04 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA) Building a Case for more Support The Case of Malawi Prepared for the Policy Assistance Unit of the FAO Subregional Office for East and Southern Africa by A.J.E. CHARMAN Rome, 2006 Building a Case for more Public Support TABLE OF CONTENTS ABREVIATIONS...................................................................................................................VI ABREVIATIONS...................................................................................................................VI ACKNOWLEDGEMENT..................................................................................................VIII FOREWORD..........................................................................................................................IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................... X CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES............................................................................................... 4 1.3 METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER 2: THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION......................................................... 6 2.1 FOOD AVAILABILITY................................................................................................... 6 2.2 DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Maize ......................................................................................................................9 2.2.2 Rice.......................................................................................................................10 2.2.3 Millet & Sorghum................................................................................................. 10 2.2.4 Grain legumes and groundnuts............................................................................ 12 2.2.5 Cassava and Sweet Potato ................................................................................... 13 2.3 FOOD AID /COMMERCIAL IMPORTS .......................................................................... 14 2.3.1 Imports ................................................................................................................. 14 2.3.2 Food Aid............................................................................................................... 17 2.3.3 Access to foreign exchange .................................................................................. 18 2.4 FOOD INSECURITY AND VULNERABILITY .................................................................. 19 2.4.1 Regional dimension.............................................................................................. 19 2.4.2 Household Access................................................................................................. 19 2.4.3 Nutrition status..................................................................................................... 20 2.4.4 Coping mechanisms.............................................................................................. 20 2.4.5 Vulnerability......................................................................................................... 21 2.4.6 Market Access ...................................................................................................... 22 2.5 NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION STRATEGIES.................... 23 2.6 SUMMARY AND SYNTHESIS ....................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 3: AGRICULTURE SUPPORT: MAGNITUDE, EVOLUTION AND TRENDS.................................................................................................................................. 26 3.1 OVERVIEW OF THE MACRO-ECONOMY ...................................................................... 26 3.2 IMPORTANCE AND PERFORMANCE OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR............................ 27 3.2.1 Economy Structure ............................................................................................... 28 3.2.2 Employment.......................................................................................................... 28 3.2.3 Structural Reforms ............................................................................................... 29 3.3 MAJOR CONSTRAINTS TO AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT ....................................... 30 3.4 KEY OPPORTUNITIES FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT........................................ 32 3.5 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND SUPPORT TO AGRICULTURE ........................................... 34 iii The Case of Malawi 3.5 INVESTMENT PROGRAMMES FOR SMALLHOLDERS..................................................... 38 3.5.1 Development programs ........................................................................................ 38 3.5.2 Public Sector Credit Subsidization (APIP) .......................................................... 41 3.6 PRIVATE SECTOR /FARMER PARTNERSHIP ................................................................ 42 3.7 SUMMARY AND SYNTHESIS ....................................................................................... 43 CHAPTER 4: THE IMPACT OF FOOD IMPORT/AID .................................................. 45 4.1 THE MAGNITUDE OF FOOD AID ................................................................................. 45 4.2 FOOD AID /FOOD IMPORT IMPACT AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL....................................... 47 4.2.1 Impact on nutrition............................................................................................... 47 4.2.2 Problems of Targeting and Timing ...................................................................... 48 4.2.3 Impact on incentives............................................................................................. 49 4.3 IMPACT OF FOOD AID /IMPORT ON SUPPLY AND PRICES........................................... 51 4.3.1 Food Supply.......................................................................................................... 51 4.3.2 Prices.................................................................................................................... 52 4.4 PORT CHARGES AND TRANSPORTATION COSTS OF IMPORTED FOOD......................... 56 4.5 MACROECONOMIC AND OTHER IMPLICATIONS OF FOOD AID AND IMPORT ............... 57 4.6 SUMMARY AND SYNTHESIS ....................................................................................... 59 CHAPTER 5: OPTIONS FOR A SUSTAINABLE EXIT.................................................. 62 5.1 IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS IN THE EXTERNAL MARKETS ....................................... 62 5.1.1 Trade Strategy...................................................................................................... 63 5.1.2 Tariffs ................................................................................................................... 63 5.1.3 Domestic Support ................................................................................................. 65 5.2 FOSTER AN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ...................................................................... 68 5.2.1 Address Macro-Economic Instability................................................................... 68 5.2.2 Invest in irrigation and other infrastructure........................................................ 69 5.2.3 Enhance Human Resource Development ............................................................. 70 5.2.4 Improve Regulatory Framework .......................................................................... 70 5.2.5 Introduce Land Reform and Enhance tenure security ......................................... 71 5.3 INCREASE SUPPORT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE ........................................... 72 5.3.1 The Case for Direct Subsidization ....................................................................... 72 5.3.2 Returns on Investment .......................................................................................... 73 5.3.3 Macro-economic gains......................................................................................... 75 5.3.4 Avoiding Dependency........................................................................................... 76 5.4 SUMMARY AND SYNTHESIS...................................................................................... 78 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................... 80 REFERENCES....................................................................................................................... 85 iv Building a Case for more Public Support LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Annual Change in Daily Calorie Supply Per Capita.................................................... 6 Table 2: Dietary Supply Trends: 1990-2009............................................................................ 14 Table 3: Major Food Imports, 1990-2001 (‘000 Mt) ............................................................... 14 Table 4: Informal Cross Border Maize Trade Situation Analysis, 2002-2003 ........................ 17 Table 5: Household Food Security Profile..............................................................................