The University of Manchester Research Moorland Wild Fires in the Peak District National Park, Technical Report 3 Link to publication record in Manchester Research Explorer Citation for published version (APA): Mcmorrow, J., Aylen, J., Albertson, K., Cavan, G., Lindley, S., Handley, J., & Karooni, R. (2006). Moorland Wild Fires in the Peak District National Park, Technical Report 3. (Climate Change and the Visitor Economy (CCVE)). University of Manchester, Centre of Urban and Regional Ecology. http://www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/geography/staff/documents/Moorland_Wildfires_Final_Report_Technical_Report 3.pdf Citing this paper Please note that where the full-text provided on Manchester Research Explorer is the Author Accepted Manuscript or Proof version this may differ from the final Published version. If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version. 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Oct. 2021 ‘CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VISITOR ECONOMY’ Technical report 3: Moorland Wild Fires in the Peak District National Park January 2006 CENTRE FOR URBAN & REGIONAL ECOLOGY, School of Environment and Development, Humanities Building – Bridgeford Street University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL Tel: 0161 275 6938 Fax: 0161 275 6917 http://www.art.man.ac.uk/PLANNING/cure Smoke plume from Bleaklow and two other moorland fires, 18 April 2003. (Image courtesy of Defra). 2 Notes: This report is the Peak District Case Study Technical Report carried out by the Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology, University of Manchester, as part of the DEFRA-funded ‘Climate Change and the Visitor Economy’ (CCVE) project. The overall project is managed by Sustainability Northwest, with additional funding provided by the North West Development Agency and the Environment Agency. Authors: Julia McMorrow School of Geography, University of Manchester Jonathan Aylen PREST, University of Manchester Dr Kevin Albertson Manchester Metropolitan University Gina Cavan CURE, University of Manchester Dr Sarah Lindley CURE, University of Manchester Prof. John Handley CURE, University of Manchester Richard Karooni School of Geography, University of Manchester 3 Abstract...............................................................................................................5 1. Introduction............................................................................................................7 2. Research Context and Methodology......................................................................9 2.1 Causes of wildfires.....................................................................................9 2.2 Environmental consequences of wildfires................................................10 2.3 Factors in the risk of wildfire outbreaks..................................................10 2.4 Climate scenarios.....................................................................................11 2.5 Relationships between climate change, visitors and environmental capacity................................................................................................................15 2.6 Research Methodology.............................................................................20 3. Spatial modelling of fire risk ...............................................................................21 3.1 Aims..........................................................................................................21 3.2 Role of GIS...............................................................................................21 3.3 Conceptual model ....................................................................................22 3.4 Data sources ............................................................................................23 3.5 Stratifying the fire data base....................................................................24 3.6 Multi-criteria evaluation..........................................................................25 3.7 Habitat layer ............................................................................................29 3.8 Aspect layer..............................................................................................34 3.9 Road layer................................................................................................35 3.10 Pennine Way layer ...................................................................................37 3.11 Eroded path layer ....................................................................................38 3.12 Trampled Path Layer ...............................................................................39 3.13 Car park layer..........................................................................................40 3.14 Access Land layer ....................................................................................42 3.15 Open water layer......................................................................................43 3.16 Weighted models ......................................................................................43 3.17 Sources of error recommendations and further work..............................47 3.18 Applying the model to managing fire risk................................................49 3.19 Conclusion ...............................................................................................50 4. Forecasting the Outbreak of Moorland Wildfires (Temporal Analysis)..............52 4.1 Aims..........................................................................................................52 4.2 The Seasonal nature of wildfires..............................................................52 4.3 Analysis of time-series properties............................................................54 4.4 Modelling the probability of fires ............................................................56 4.5 Methodology and estimation....................................................................59 4.6 Forecasting outbreaks of fires .................................................................59 4.7 Simulating the effect of climate change ...................................................65 4.8 Further developments ..............................................................................62 4.9 Conclusions..............................................................................................66 4.10 Notes on Data Source ..............................................................................67 5. Implications for management ..............................................................................68 5.1 Climate change, fire risk and implications for management...................65 5.2 Wildfire management...............................................................................70 5.3 Policy recommendations..........................................................................74 5.4 Acknowledgements...................................................................................77 6. References............................................................................................................78 4 Abstract Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the risk of frequent wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District National Park (PDNP) of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires and high fire risk locations will aid the deployment of fire fighting resources. Both spatial modelling (identifying where risk of fire is highest, based on past fires) and temporal analysis (predicting when that risk is likely to be highest, based on preceding weather) were applied in this analysis. Firstly, multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) was used to spatially model the risk of reported wildfires in the Dark Peak area (northern part of the PDNP)), based on a 28-year record of fires from the PDNP rangers’ fire log. Fire risk was investigated using habitat and aspect maps to represent vulnerability to ignition, and distance from access features as a proxy for the likelihood of ignition sources. This showed that bare peat, eroding moorland and bilberry bog were the habitats with the most reported fires. Moorland restoration measures to revegetate bare peat and raise water tables should, therefore, also serve to reduce fire risk. Heather communities had the fewest reported fires, which suggests that management of heather, including rotational burning, is successful in reducing vulnerability to wildfire. Risk of a fire occurring and being reported is increased around access routes, with most fires occurring within 300m of roads and eroded paths, 750m of trampled paths, and within 2km of the Pennine Way. Additionally, there were significantly more reported fires on Access Land, with implications for increased fire risk since the extension of access