COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS San Antonio -New Braunfels, Texas U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research | As of September 1, 2018 Summary Housing Market Area Economy he economy of the San home sales in the HMA totaled Antonio-New Braunfels 56,600 homes sold during the 12 THMA has expanded each months ending August 2018, an year since 2010, although the rate increase of 1,550, or 3 percent, Gillespie Travis Blanco of nonfarm payroll growth has from the previous 12 months Kerr Hays Kendall slowed since 2014. During the (CoreLogic, Inc.). During the Comal Caldwell 12 months ending August 2018, next 3 years, demand is expected Real Bandera Guadalupe total nonfarm payrolls in the for 31,850 new homes (Table 1). Bexar HMA increased by 20,000 jobs, The 2,100 homes currently under Uvalde Medina Gonzales or 1.9 percent, to 1.05 million jobs. construction will meet a portion Wilson During the 3-year forecast period, of this demand. Atascosa Karnes DeWitt Zavala Frio nonfarm payrolls are expected to Goliad increase by an average of 21,000 Rental Market Live Oak Dimmit La Salle McMullen Bee jobs, or 2.0 percent, annually. The The rental housing market in largest employers in the HMA are the HMA is currently balanced. The San Antonio-New Braunfels Joint Base San Antonio (JBSA), The overall rental vacancy rate Housing Market Area (HMA) HEB Grocery Company, LP, (including single-family homes, encompasses eight counties in south- and United Services Automobile apartments, and mobile homes) is central Texas. The principal city Association, with 80,000, 20,000, currently estimated at 7.0 percent, of San Antonio, the seventh most and 18,300 employees, respectively. down from 9.5 percent in April populous in the United States, is 2010. During the 3-year forecast in Bexar County. The city of New Sales Market period, demand is estimated for Braunfels, in Comal and Guadalupe The sales housing market in 21,600 new market-rate rental Counties, is 30 miles northeast of the the HMA is balanced, with an units (Table 1). The 7,250 units city of San Antonio. Surrounding estimated sales vacancy rate of under construction should satisfy Bexar County, Atascosa and Wilson 1.5 percent. New and existing some of the forecast demand. Counties to the south, Bandera and Medina Counties to the west, and Kendall County to the north complete Table 1. Housing Demand in the San Antonio-New Braunfels HMA During the Forecast Period the HMA. San Antonio-New Braunfels HMA Sales Units Rental Units Market Details Total Demand 31,850 21,600 Economic Conditions ........................2 Under Construction 2,100 7,250 Population and Households ...........6 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of September 1, 2018. The forecast Housing Market Trends ....................8 period is September 1, 2018, to September 1, 2021. Data Profile ........................................12 Source: Estimates by analyst 2 Economic Conditions conomic conditions in 1.9 percent, during the most recent the San Antonio-New 12 months, following an increase EBraunfels HMA are of 25,100 jobs, or 2.5 percent, currently strong, following a during the 12 months ending relatively quick recovery from job August 2017. The HMA added losses in the late 2000s. Nonfarm an average of 24,100 jobs, or 2.6 payrolls have increased each year percent, each year from 2010 since the end of 2009 and have through 2016. By comparison, exceeded the prerecession high nonfarm payrolls for the nation since 2011. Expansion at JBSA, increased 1.6 percent during the 12 which contributed significantly months ending August 2018 and to nonfarm payroll gains in the by an average of 1.7 percent from early 2010s, has slowed since 2010 through 2016. During the 12 2015, and the rate of job growth months ending August 2018, the in the HMA has declined each unemployment rate in the HMA year since 2014. During the 12 averaged 3.3 percent, down from months ending August 2018, 3.7 percent during the previous nonfarm payrolls averaged 1.05 12-month period. By comparison, million jobs, which was 22 percent from 2001 through 2008, from higher than the prerecession high 2009 through 2014, and from 2015 of 863,600 in 2008. Nonfarm through 2016, the unemployment payrolls increased 20,000 jobs, or rate averaged 5.0, 6.3, and 3.8 Table 2. Major Employers in the San Antonio-New Braunfels HMA percent, respectively. Figure 1 shows trends in the labor force, Number of Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Sector resident employment, and the Employees unemployment rate in the HMA Joint Base San Antonio Government 80,000 from 2000 through 2017. HEB Grocery Company, LP Wholesale & Retail Trade 20,000 United Services Automobile Association Financial Activities 18,300 The military has a large presence Methodist Healthcare System Education & Health Services 9,625 in the HMA, and the effect on the City of San Antonio Government 9,150 COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS COMPREHENSIVE local economy is significant. The • Baptist Health System Education & Health Services 6,375 U.S. Department of Defense has Wells Fargo & Company Financial Activities 5,075 an annual economic impact of Harland Clarke Financial Activities 5,000 $48.7 billion on the HMA (City JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financial Activities 5,000 of San Antonio, Office of Military Marathon Petroleum Corporation Manufacturing 5,000 Affairs study, 2015, the most Notes: Excludes local school districts. Joint Base San Antonio (JBSA) includes Lackland Air Force recent data available). The largest Base, Fort Sam Houston, and Randolph Air Force Base. Data for JBSA include 40,100 uniformed military personnel, who are not included in nonfarm payroll survey data. employer in the HMA is JBSA, Source: San Antonio Economic Development Foundation with an estimated 80,000 military and civilian personnel (Table 2). Figure 1. Trends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the San Antonio-New Braunfels HMA, 2000 Through 2017 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Braunfels, San Antonio-New 1,195,000 9.0 8.0 1,095,000 7.0 6.0 995,000 5.0 4.0 895,000 3.0 Labor Force & Labor Force 795,000 2.0 1.0 Unemployment Rate Resident Employment 695,000 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Labor Force Resident Employment Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Conditions Continued 3 JBSA was formed in October the growth of JBSA since 2015. 2010 by consolidating Fort Sam Although the fiscal year (FY) 2018 Houston, Lackland Air Force military operating budget was Base (AFB), and Randolph AFB, increased by $82 billion, the effect a recommendation of the 2005 on JBSA is still unclear. During Base Realignment and Closure the 12 months ending August Commission (BRAC). The 2018, the government sector added 2005 BRAC recommendations 1,600 jobs, an increase of 0.9 also resulted in the military percent (Table 3). The gains were consolidating several medical entirely in the local government and training facilities within the subsector, which gained 2,000 HMA from 2008 through 2011. jobs, or 1.7 percent, offsetting The San Antonio Military Medical losses in the federal and state Center, which encompasses the government subsectors. functions of the former Brooke Nonfarm payroll growth in Army Medical Center and the HMA has consistently multiple other medical facilities, outperformed that of the nation was completed in 2010, and the since 2003. Payrolls in the HMA $1.2 billion, tri-service Medical increased an average of 13,700 Education and Training Campus jobs, or 1.7 percent, annually from (METC), which consolidated 2001 through 2008 and reached five major training centers from a high of 863,600 jobs, which across the United States, was included the 2,000 manufacturing completed in 2011. More than jobs added in 2006 when Toyota 16,500 military personnel graduate Motor Corporation opened an from the METC annually. In total, $850 million manufacturing the BRAC recommendations facility. During the same period, resulted in the in-migration of nonfarm payrolls for the nation an estimated 5,000 military increased by an average of 0.5 personnel, 5,500 family members, percent. As a result of the Great and 9,000 military students to the COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS COMPREHENSIVE Recession, which lasted from HMA from 2008 through 2011. • December 2007 until June 2009, Across-the-board federal spending payrolls in the HMA declined cuts mandated by the Budget in 2009 by 15,800 jobs, or 1.8 Control Act of 2011 (also known percent. The effects of the Great as sequestration) has limited Recession were moderate in the Table 3. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the San Antonio-New Braunfels HMA, by Sector 12 Months Ending Absolute Percent August 2017 August 2018 Change Change Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 1,032,100 1,052,100 20,000 1.9 Goods-Producing Sectors 106,200 112,200 6,000 5.6 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Braunfels, San Antonio-New Mining, Logging, & Construction 58,000 63,300 5,300 9.1 Manufacturing 48,200 48,900 700 1.5 Service-Providing Sectors 925,800 939,900 14,100 1.5 Wholesale & Retail Trade 150,900 150,700 – 200 – 0.1 Transportation & Utilities 30,800 32,900 2,100 6.8 Information 20,900 20,400 – 500 – 2.4 Financial Activities 88,900 89,100 200 0.2 Professional & Business Services 133,400 136,000 2,600 1.9 Education & Health Services 160,300 163,700 3,400 2.1 Leisure & Hospitality 132,300 136,200 3,900 2.9 Other Services 37,600 38,500 900 2.4 Government 170,800 172,400 1,600 0.9 Notes: Based on 12-month averages through August 2017 and August 2018.