n° 9 Thematic Report of the French Air Transport Directorate december 2008 Air traffic between France and the United Kingdom: air transport between the Regions, train between capitals Preamble "Paris-London" was the most important international air connection for a long time. Since 8 February 1919, when the first passenger air service in the world was launched by the Farman Company (Paris-London in 2:37), the traffic on this line has kept growing, reaching over four million passengers. With the construction of the Channel Tunnel and the TGV Nord in 1994 and the high-speed lines in England, rail traffic increased between Paris and London. From 2007, it was no longer the first airline departing from France. However, the dynamic offers from low cost companies led to strong growth in traffic between France and England, no longer driven by connections between capital cities. This review provides an original analysis of the impact that a new (low-cost) airline offer has on demand. 1. Cross -Channel traffic: …in which air transport a stagnating market since 2000… is winning market share (see figure 2 & 3)… After steady growth (9.3 % on average per year) during the four years following the launch of the Eurostar Although it is still the most popular mode of trans- (November 1994), cross channel traffic languished • port, passenger traffic on ferries decreased to 18.2 at 45 million passengers per year (figure 1). The million in 2007 from 28.8 million passengers in 1994 ferry remains the preferred cross channel mode of and its market share was halved (39 % in 2006). transport (17.6 million passengers in 2006 i.e. 39 % Railway traffic dropped by 13 % between 1998 and of the total). This is followed by train travel with 15.5 • 2007, from 18.6 million passengers in 1998 to 16.1 million passengers (34 %) and air travel with 12.1 million in 2007. This decline is attributable to the million passengers (27 %). decreasing number of Eurotunnel shuttle passengers. On the other hand, Eurostar saw its traffic increase 55 30 Eurotunnel shuttles* by 3.3 % per year between 1997-2007Sea transport and its share 50 Eurostar Rail transport 25 45 Air (France - UK excl. Paris-London) in cross-Channel traffic amounts toAir transport17.7 % in 2007 40 Air (Paris-London) Ferries (9 French ports) 20 compared to 12.4 % in 1997. 35 30 In 2007, Eurostar passenger numbers rose by 5.1 %, a 15 25 rate slightly lower than 2006 (5.4 %), but, the traffic 20 10 15 has been increasing by 11 % since the middle of 10 5 November 2007, the date of the opening of high- 5 0 0 speed tracks in the UK. From January to September 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 * Passengers of vehicules on "tourism" shuttles 2008, Eurostar traffic grew by 13.9 % compared to Source : SNCF, DGAC, DTMPL, Eurotunnel the same period of 2007. As for the airline traffic between France (mainland) Figure12 1. Overall cross channel traffic Eurostar • (millions of passengers) Air (Paris-London) and the UK, despite the launch of the Eurostar it has 10 Air (France - UK excl. Paris-London) regularly and steadily increased since 1995 (5.5 % 8 per year). This transport mode keeps winning market Present 6 share (27 % in 2007 vs. 21 % in 1994) thanks to low-cost activity development. for 4 the future 2 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ministry of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Town and Country Planning www.aviation-civile.gouv.fr THEMATIC REPORT | december 2008 100% 0,10 and the United Kingdom (excluding the Paris-London line) is 90% 0,17 21% 0,24 marked by three major phases (see figures 5 and 6): 0,11 35% 80% 36% 0,18 70% 0,12 From 1986 to 1990, passenger traffic increased at a very high 60% 0,09 • 15% 0,22 rate of 17 % per year on average mainly due to the strong 26% 50% 0,06 increase of flight frequencies (+20 % per year). During this same 0,05 40% 0,78 period, passenger traffic between France and other European 30% Eurotunnel shuttles countries rose by an average of 11.5 % per annum; Eurostar 0,49 20% Plane (France–Uk excl. Paris-London) 0,39 Plane (Paris-London) 10% Ferries (9 French ports) From 1990 to 1997, traffic increased by only 4.4 % per year 0% • on average and the number of aircraft movements increased 1994 1998 2007 slightly (2.5 % per year). At the same time, passenger traffic Figure 2. Distribution of cross-channel traffic by transport mode between France (outside Paris) and the rest of Europe 1 Note: from January to October 2008, air traffic between France and UK decreased by 1.6 % compared to the same period of 2007. increased by 6.9 % per year. The slowdown in traffic can be partly explained by the consequences of the Gulf War and lower economic growth; 55 30 Eurotunnel shuttles* Sea transport 50 Eurostar Rail transport From 1997 to 2007, traffic increased dramatically (10 % per year 25 45 Air (France - UK excl. Paris-London) Air transport • on average, compared to 7.2 % for the rest of the European 40 Air (Paris-London) Ferries (9 French ports) 20 35 Union) with growth of the airway offer - (5.8 % per year in 30 number of movements) - and in particular the development 15 25 of low-cost carriers whose market share rose to nearly 65 % 20 10 in 2007. However, the traffic of traditional scheduled airlines, 15 10 5 facing strong competition, has been decreasing since the early 5 2000s. The growth of traffic between France and the United 0 0 Kingdom remained steady even between 2000 and 2003, 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 * Passengers of vehicules on "tourism" shuttles a period during which air transport was affected by several Source : SNCF, DGAC, DTMPL, Eurotunnel Figure 3. Sea, air, and rail cross-Channel traffic external events (September 2001, Iraq conflict, SARS). (millions of passengers) 12 Eurostar 55 3012 000 000 140 000 Eurotunnel shuttles* aagr 1997-2007Sea transport : +10,2%/year aagr 1997-2007 : +5,8%/year Air (Paris-London) 50 10 Eurostar Rail transport Total Air (France - UK excl. Paris-London) 120 000 45 Air (France - UK excl. Paris-London) 2510 000 000 Low-cost cies Total Air transport ...mainlyAir (Paris-London) departing from regional Trad cies 8 40 Low-cost cies 100 000 charter Ferries (9 French ports) 208 000 000 Trad cies 35 airports, the Paris-London air connection charter 6 aagr 1986-1997 : +7,6%/year 30 80 000 suffers from Eurostar competition. 156 000 000 25 aagr 1986-1997 : +8,9%/year 4 60 000 20 The air transport between both countries has been marked by 104 000 000 15 40 000 2 two contrasting changes (cf. figure 4): 10 52 000 000 20 000 Paris-London air traffic has dropped by half: 4 million pas- 0 5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 • 0 0 0 sengers in 1994, only 2.2 million in 2007 ; 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 19901986 1992 1988 1994 1990 1992 1996 1994 1998 1996 2000 1998 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 2006 2006 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 aagr : annual average growth rates * only passenger aircrafts - aagr : annual average growth rates * Passengers Air traffic of vehicules between on "tourism" French shuttles regions and the UK (excluding Paris- •Source London : SNCF, DGAC flights), DTMPL increased, Eurotunnel 2.6-fold between 1997 and 2007. Figure 5. Air traffic between France and UK Note: from January to October 2008, air traffic between France and UK (excl. 12 Paris-London) grew by 1.0 % compared to the same period of 2007: +0.7 % Eurostar for low-cost compagnies, -0.01 % for traditional scheduled airlines and Air (Paris-London) 10 +9.0 % for charter compagnies. Air (France - UK excl. Paris-London) 8 12 000 000 140 000 aagr 1997-2007 : +10,2%/year aagr 1997-2007 : +5,8%/year Total 6 120 000 10 000 000 Low-cost cies Total Trad cies Low-cost cies 4 100 000 charter 8 000 000 Trad cies charter aagr 1986-1997 : +7,6%/year 80 000 2 6 000 000 aagr 1986-1997 : +8,9%/year 60 000 0 4 000 000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 40 000 2 000 000 Figure 4. Air and rail cross-Channel traffic (Eurostar) 20 000 (millions of passengers) 0 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Note: from January to October 2008: Eurostar traffic increased by 13.9 %, aagr : annual average growth rates * only passenger aircrafts - aagr : annual average growth rates air traffic between Paris and London decreased by 13.7 % and air traffic between France and UK (excl. Paris-London) grew by 1.0 % compared Figure 6. Number of aircraft movements between France and UK to the same period of 2007. (Excl. the Paris- London line, thousands of passengers) Note: from January to October 2008, air traffic between France and UK (excl.