COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Boston, Massachusetts U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research As of January 1, 2019 Boston, Massachusetts Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2019 Executive Summary 2 Rockingham ! Places of Interest Boston HMA k Hillsborough Northshore Submarket Southshore Submarket Boston and Suffolk Submarket NEW HAMPSHIRE Essex Lowell! ATLANTIC OCEAN ! Beverly Executive Summary Middlesex Cambridge Boston ! ! Suffolk Housing Market Area Description Worcester ! Quincy !Weymouth The Boston Housing Market Area (HMA) includes Essex, Norfolk Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Suffolk Counties in Foxborough Massachusetts. For the purposes of this analysis, the ! MASSACHUSETTS HMA is divided into three submarkets: the Boston-Suffolk Plymouth CONNECTICUT RHODE ISLAND submarket is coterminous with Suffolk County and includes Providence the city of Boston; the North Shore submarket contains Bristol Windham Essex and Middlesex Counties; and the South Shore Barnstable submarket consists of Norfolk and Plymouth Counties. Kent The HMA is home to 56 institutions of higher learning with more than 420,000 students living in the HMA. The population of the HMA is currently estimated at Tools and Resources Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally, nearly 4.47 million. at PD&R’s Market-at-a-Glance tool. Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report’s supplemental tables. For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool. Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Boston, Massachusetts U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Boston, Massachusetts Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2019 Executive Summary 3 Market Qualifiers Economy Sales Market Rental Market Strong: Since 2010, nonfarm payrolls Tight: The average new and existing Slightly tight: The average rent for an in the Boston New England city and home sales price increased 6 percent apartment increased nearly 5 percent town area (NECTA) have increased during 2018. during 2018. by an average of 43,900 jobs, or 1.7 percent, annually—a sharp turnaround from the previous The home sales market in the Boston HMA is tight, The overall rental market is currently slightly tight decade when nonfarm payrolls declined by an with an estimated vacancy rate of 0.8 percent, down with an estimated 3.9-percent vacancy rate, down average of 9,000 jobs, or 0.4 percent, annually from 1.4 percent in 2010. The number of home sales from 5.8 percent in 2010. Similar conditions exist (Figure 1). in the Boston HMA declined more than 1 percent in all three submarkets with rental vacancy rates at During 2018, nonfarm payrolls averaged more than during 2018 as a lack of inventory constrained or below 3.9 percent. The apartment market is also 2.78 million jobs, an increase of 45,200 jobs, or the market. During December 2018, there were slightly tight with a 3.3-percent vacancy rate during 1.7 percent, from 2017 when nonfarm payrolls 1.7 months of supply of single-family homes and the fourth quarter of 2018, down from 3.5 percent increased by 32,400 jobs, or 1.2 percent. Eight out 2.0 months of supply of condominiums for sale. during the fourth quarter of 2017. During the 3-year of the 10 employment sectors added jobs during The average sales price of a home in the Boston forecast period, demand is estimated for 32,225 2018, and the remaining two sectors declined less HMA during 2018 was $594,300. During the 3-year units. The 20,600 units currently under construction than 1.0 percent. During the 3-year forecast period, nonfarm payroll growth is expected to remain forecast period, demand is estimated for 30,975 will satisfy a portion of that demand. positive, but is anticipated to slow from current new homes; the 4,645 homes under construction levels, and average 1.3 percent annually. will meet a portion of that demand. 3-Year Housing Demand Forecast TABLE OF CONTENTS Sales Units Rental Units Total Demand 3,925 12,100 Boston-Suffolk Economic Conditions 4 Under Construction 1,925 7,600 Population and Households 8 Total Demand 16,450 14,500 North Shore Home Sales Market Conditions 11 Under Construction 1,750 9,100 Total Demand 10,600 5,625 South Shore Rental Market Conditions 22 Under Construction 970 3,900 Terminology Definitions and Notes 30 Total Demand 30,975 32,225 Boston HMA Under Construction 4,645 20,600 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of January 1, 2019. The forecast period is January 1, 2019, to January 1, 2022. Source: Estimates by the analyst Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Boston, Massachusetts U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Boston, Massachusetts Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2019 Economic Conditions 4 Economic Conditions Figure 2. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Boston HMA, by Sector ocal Mining, ogging, Construction Largest sector: Education and Health Services State Federal Manufacturing The Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH metropolitan NECTA includes Other Services portions of New Hampshire and is somewhat larger than the Boston overnment Trade, ransportation 11% Utilities HMA (see Notes on Geography in the appendix). The education and eisure health services sector accounts for 21 percent of all nonfarm payroll Hospitality jobs in the NECTA and has been the fastest growing sector since 2001 Total (Figures 2 and 3). ,. nformation Primary Local Economic Factors inancial Activities 7% The city of Boston, founded in 1630, is one of the oldest cities in the United ducation Health Services States. The city, with its location along the Atlantic Ocean that leads into the Boston Harbor at the mouth of the Charles River, began as a center for shipping Professional Business Services and global commerce. By the early 1800s, a significant manufacturing presence, particularly associated with textiles, had developed in the city. Since 1990, the Notes: Total nonfarm payroll is in thousands. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. manufacturing sector has been in decline, however, and the HMA has become Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payrolls in the Boston HMA Figure 3. Sector Growth in the Boston HMA, 2001 to Current National Recession Nonfarm Payrolls Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,850 Goods-Producing Sectors Mining, Logging, & Construction Manufacturing Service-Providing Sectors 2,650 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Government Information Financial Activities 2,450 Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Nonfarm Payrolls (in Thousands) Other Services 2,250 . Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Change Note: 12-month moving average. Note: The current date is as of January 1, 2019. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Boston, Massachusetts U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Boston, Massachusetts Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2019 Economic Conditions 5 increasingly known as a global center for education and health services. The HMA is growth. The mining, logging, and construction sector had the largest percentage home to 56 institutions of higher education that currently enroll more than 420,000 increase of any sector, expanding by 5.9 percent and adding 6,600 jobs. Some of students combined, including Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of the current large-scale construction developments ongoing in the Boston HMA Technology, which were both ranked as top 10 universities by U.S. News & World include the Encore Boston Harbor, a $2.5 billion casino and resort, and a $1 billion Report. Other universities in the HMA include Tufts, Brandeis, Boston College, Boston expansion of Boston Children’s Hospital. University, and Northeastern, which were also ranked in the top 50 universities During 2018, 8 of the 10 employment sectors added jobs, with the largest increase in the nation. The HMA also is home to highly regarded hospitals such as the occurring in the professional and business services sector, which added 21,100 jobs, Massachusetts General Hospital and the Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which or 4.4 percent. The Boston HMA is a world-renowned center for education and were both ranked in the top 20 best hospitals in the nation in 2018 by U.S. News research that attracts many businesses to the area and creates many small startup & World Report. firms that create jobs in the professional and business services sector. Since 2010, the professional and business services sector has been the fastest growing sector Current Conditions—Nonfarm Payrolls with the start of the most recent expansion, adding an average of 13,600 jobs, Following a fast recovery from job losses in 2009, economic conditions remain or 3.1 percent, annually. strong in the HMA, supported by a highly educated and skilled labor force that The largest employment sector in the NECTA is the education and health services attracts many employers. During 2018, nonfarm payrolls averaged more than 2.78 sector, with 589,300 nonfarm payroll jobs during 2018, an increase of 8,800 jobs, million, an increase of 45,200, or 1.7 percent, from 2017 when nonfarm payrolls or 1.5 percent, from 2017. From 2001 to current, this sector has been the fastest increased by 32,400, or 1.2 percent (Table 1).