COVER PHOTO MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY APRIL 2017 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org Missile Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 Defense 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com 2020 Next Steps for Defending the Homeland PRINCIPAL AUTHORS CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR THOMAS KARAKO WES RUMBAUGH IAN WILLIAMS A REPORT OF THE CSIS MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT ISBN 978-1-4422-7989-6 Ë|xHSLEOCy279896z v*:+:!:+:! APRIL 2017 Missile Defense 2020 Next Steps for Defending the Homeland PRINCIPAL AUTHORS CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR Thomas Karako Wes Rumbaugh Ian Williams A REPORT OF THE CSIS MISSILE DEFENSE PROJ ECT Lanham • Boulder • New York • London About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, DC. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). ISBN: 978-1-4422-7989-6 (pb); 978-1-4422-7990-2 (eBook) © 2017 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Ave nue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com Contents v List of Figures vii List of Tables viii List of Acronyms xii Acknowl edgments xiii Study Methodology xiv Executive Summary xxviii Findings and Recommendations 1 CHAPTER 1 | Homeland Missile Defense in U.S. Strategy 1 Policy and Strategy 6 Missile Threats to the U.S. Homeland 14 CHAPTER 2 | The Evolution of Homeland Missile Defense 15 From Ambition to Modesty 18 Early Efforts 20 Nike and the Limitations of Nuclear Intercept 23 Sentinel, Safeguard, and the ABM Treaty 25 SDI and Early Hit- to- Kill 32 Post- Soviet Era and GPALS 36 Clinton Administration: Development 41 Bush Administration: Deployment 46 Obama Administration: Sustainment 52 CHAPTER 3 | The State of Homeland Missile Defense Today 55 How Homeland Missile Defense Works 56 Roadmap for Future Evolution 58 Potential Pitfalls 60 GMD Bud get Trends 65 CHAPTER 4 | Ground- based Interceptor Development 65 GBI Variants 67 Testing and Deployment History III 78 Current Interceptor Limitations 79 Planned Improvements 84 CHAPTER 5 | Sensors and Command and Control 87 Terrestrial Radars 96 Space- based Sensors 101 Command and Control 104 CHAPTER 6 | Future Options 105 Improving Capacity 112 Boost Phase 114 Orbital Basing 115 ­Future Sensor Options 119 Integrating Left of Launch 121 The Future Missile Defense and Defeat Posture 123 About the Authors IV Contents Figures xv ES.1. Homeland and Regional Modernization, 1996–2021 xvi ES.2. GMD Intercept Sequence xvii ES.3. Homeland Missile Defense Assets xxi ES.4. Homeland Actual Spending and Future Years Defense Plans, 2000–2021 xxiv ES.5. GBI Fleet Evolution: Past and Projected Deployments, 2004–2027 xxv ES.6. Homeland Missile Defense Advanced Technology: Select Programs, 2002–2017 8 1.1. North Korea’s Ballistic Missiles 9 1.2. North Korean Ballistic Missile Testing, 1984–2016 11 1.3. Iran’s Ballistic Missiles 16 2.1. Planned Interceptor Levels 19 2.2. Nike Ajax, Hercules, and Zeus Interceptors 22 2.3. Starfish Prime High Atmospheric Nuclear Test, 1962 24 2.4. Signing of the ABM Treaty, 1972 26 2.5. President Reagan Delivers Speech on SDI, March 23, 1983 28 2.6. Strategic Defense Initiative Phase 1 Concepts 29 2.7. Homing Overlay Experiment Interceptor 34 2.8. Brilliant Pebbles Concept 43 2.9. George W. Bush ABM Withdrawal Announcement, December 13, 2001 45 2.10. GBI Fleet Evolution, 2004–2016 47 2.11. Homeland and Regional Modernization, 1996–2021 53 3.1. Homeland Missile Defense Assets 55 3.2. GMD Intercept Sequence 58 3.3. GBI Fleet Evolution: Past and Projected Deployments, 2004–2027 60 3.4. MDA Actual Spending and Future Year Defense Plans, 2002–2021 61 3.5. Homeland Actual Spending and Future Year Defense Plans, 2000–2021 62 3.6. GBI Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation Bud get, 2002–2017 V 63 3.7. GMD Program Components, 2002–2021 66 4.1. Long- range Hit- to- Kill Interceptor Evolution 68 4.2. Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle 70 4.3. GMD Testing Bud get, 2002–2021 71 4.4. IFT-7, December 3, 2001 77 4.5. Notional Repre sen ta tion of Track Gate Anomaly 82 4.6. Relation of KVs to Targets: Notional Shot Doctrines 86 5.1. Long- range Homeland Sensor Evolution 87 5.2. Selected Sensor Modernization by Category, 2003–2017 88 5.3. Selected Sensor Modernization by Program, 2003–2017 90 5.4. Beale Upgraded Early Warning Radar 93 5.5. Sea- based X- band Radar 98 5.6. Space Tracking and Surveillance Satellite 99 5.7. MDA Space and Near- Space Activities Total Obligational Authority 100 5.8. GMD Intercept “Fireball” 105 6.1. Homeland Missile Defense Advanced Technology: Select Programs, 2002–2017 106 6.2. RDT&E Bud get Activity 3: Amounts and Percent of MDA Bud get, 1998–2021 107 6.3. Fort Greely Additional Interceptor Capacity 118 6.4. MDA Advanced Sensor Test Bed VI Figures Tables xxiii ES.1. Current and Future Phases of GMD Evolution 4 1.1. Comparison of 1999 NMD Act and FY 2017 NDAA 15 2.1. Missile Defense Tasks 17 2.2. Homeland Defense Architectures at a Glance 38 2.3. Phases of Clinton National Missile Defense 50 2.4. SDI/NMD/GMD Evolution 54 3.1. GMD at a Glance— Operational Ele ments 56 3.2. Current and Future Phases of GMD Evolution 67 4.1. Current and Future GBI Configurations 73 4.2. GBI Testing History 78 4.3. GMD Test Failures 85 5.1. Deployed Homeland Sensors at a Glance 108 6.1. Planned and Potential GBI Capacity— Fort Greely and Vandenberg Air Force Base VII Acronyms ABIR Airborne Infrared Radar ABL Airborne Laser ABM Antiballistic Missile ABMDA Army Advanced Ballistic Missile Defense Agency AHD Advanced Homeland Defense ALPS Accidental Launch Protection System AMDR Air and Missile Defense Radar ARPA Advanced Research Program Agency ARPAT Advanced Research Program Agency— Terminal ASAT Anti- satellite BA Bud get Authority BAMBI Ballistic Missile Boost Intercept BMDO Ballistic Missile Defense Organization BMDR Ballistic Missile Defense Review BMDS Ballistic Missile Defense System BP Brilliant Pebbles BSTS Boost Surveillance Tracking System BVT Booster Verification Test C2 Command and Control C2BMC Command and Control, Battle Management, and Communications C4ISR Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance CE Capability Enhancement CKV Common Kill Vehicle CLE Command Launch Equipment CONUS Continental United States CTV Controlled Test Vehicle VIII CY Calendar Year DACS Divert and Attitude Control System DDR Deployment Decision Review DLWS Demonstrator Laser Weapon System DOT&E Director, Operational Test and Evaluation DRR Deployment Readiness Review DSCS Defense Satellite Communications System DSP Defense Support Program E2I Exo- Endoatmospheric Interceptor EHD Enhanced Homeland Defense EIS Environmental Impact Statement EKV Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle EO/IR Electro- optical/Infrared EPAA Eu ro pean Phased Adaptive Approach ERIS Exoatmospheric Reentry Interceptor Subsystem EWR Early Warning Radar FGA Fort Greely, Alaska FTG Flight Test Ground- based Midcourse Defense FTX Flight Test Other FY Fiscal Year FYDP ­Future Years Defense Program GAO Government Accountability Office GBI Ground- based Interceptor GFC GMD Fire Control GLIPAR Guide Line Identification Program for Antimissile Research GMD Ground- based Midcourse Defense GPALS Global Protection Against Limited Strikes GSTS Ground- based Surveillance and Tracking System HALO High Altitude Learjet Observatory HEDI High Endoatmospheric Defense Interceptor HEL- MD High Energy Laser- Mobile Demonstrator HOE Homing Overlay Experiment ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IDT In- Flight Interceptor Communications System Data Terminal IFICS In- Flight Interceptor Communications System IFT Integrated Flight Test IMU Inertial Mea sure ment Unit IOC Initial Operating Capability IRBM Intermediate- range Ballistic Missile ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JIAMDO Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defense Organ ization KEI Kinetic Energy Interceptor Acronyms IX LaWS ­Laser Weapon System LEAP Lightweight Exoatmospheric Projectile LoAD Low Altitude Defense LRDR Long Range Discrimination Radar MaRV Maneuvering Reentry Vehicle MDA Missile Defense Agency MEADS Medium Extended Area Defense System MF Missile