FACTORS INFLUENCING MEDIA USE IN THE EVACUATION DECISION-MAKING PROCESS DURING APPROACHING CYCLONES IN THE BAHAMAS _______________________________________ A Thesis presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School at the University of Missouri-Columbia _______________________________________________________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts _____________________________________________________ by CHRISTOPHER SAUNDERS Dr. Lee Wilkins, Thesis Supervisor DECEMBER 2011 The undersigned, appointed by the dean of the Graduate School, have examined the thesis entitled FACTORS INFLUENCING MEDIA USE IN THE EVACUATION DECISION-MAKING PROCESS DURING APPROACHING CYCLONES IN THE BAHAMAS presented by Christopher Saunders, a candidate for the degree of master of arts, and hereby certify that, in their opinion, it is worthy of acceptance. Professor Lee Wilkins Professor Glenn Leshner Professor Anthony Lupo Professor Kevin Wise ….. Two people have been my backbone throughout my life and I dedicate this thesis to them: My mother Nona and grandfather Uncle Bobby. Both have supported me financially and emotionally throughout my entire life and I thank both of them for that. I would not be who I am today if it were not for them. ….. If Mummy and Uncle Bobby are my backbone, my two sisters—Christina and Alicia—are my heart. Thank you for supporting me even when things got rough and we would all be on the verge of another huge fight. Without both of you in my corner there would be no way that I could be on this journey and definitely at the finish line. ….. And even though two people are not here I still carry them in my heart as well: Nana and Mar. Both gave me love and support that I still hold onto today. When things got rough, I thought of both of them and got strength knowing that they saw the potential in me decades ago. I love you both and will never stop. ….. Talking about love, I have the love and support of some friends who kept me going though this journey: Nicholas, Alex M., Alex H., Will, Nadia, Jevone, Rose, and Remond. All of you either carried me or gave me moral support to press on. ….. And last but not least, I dedicate this achievement to my first nephew Justiz Jeremy Daniel Butler, who was the catalyst for me returning to school to pursue a graduate education, and my second nephew Amare Ethan Nathaniel Rolle, who gave me renewed life to press on. If it were not for both of them, I would not be at this point in my life. Uncle Chris loves ya! ….. Deo Gratias ….. In Hoc Signo Vinces ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to all the members of my thesis committee for their assistance, guidance, and support throughout this process. I would like to thank Dr. Lee Wilkins for agreeing to supervise my foray into risk communication research and leading me on this academic journey. Without her persistence and support I would not be here at this academic finish line. I would like to thank Dr. Glenn Leshner for giving me a firm understanding—and appreciation—for quantitative research and for guiding me while I was analyzing the data. I would like to thank Dr. Kevin Wise for agreeing to be a part of my committee not only for helping to simplify some concepts but for also being a reassuring voice during the process. I would like to thank Dr. Anthony Lupo from the Atmospheric Science department for agreeing to serve on my committee, for seeing the importance of my research, and for always being very supportive during the entire process as well. I would also like to thank entire staff at the Frank Lee Martin Journalism Library who put up with me for many late nights. I am especially grateful for the assistance from Dorothy Carner, Sue Schuermann, Karen Marshall, Michael Hopkins, Lindsay Roseman, Adam Halley and Jordan Williams who made the library inviting and a pleasurable place to work. Without the assistance, patience, and kind smiles I found in the Journalism Library this would have been a horribly frustrating experience. Thank you very much. I would also be remiss to not acknowledge professors who have helped to guide me in my graduate academic career: Professors Dr. Stephanie Craft, Greely Kyle, Jim Riek, Randy Reeves, John Schneller, Dr. Tim Vos, and Dr. Stacey Woelfel. I would also like to acknowledge the foundation education I received at The College of the Bahamas and Paul Quinn College. ii I would like to also acknowledge the assistance, support, and guidance I received in the Journalism Graduate Studies office. Thank you Sarah Smith-Frigerio and Ginny Cowell for helping me get through this journey. I would also like to say a special thank you to Martha Pickens who was with me on this journey even before it started. Without her kindness and graciousness, I would not be able to be at this finish line. I would be remiss not to thank everyone at the two newsrooms that I worked at during my journey at The University of Missouri-Columbia. I would like to thank Greg Bowers for believing in me to be a teaching assistant at the Columbia Missourian and for allowing me to be in the audience of his ukulele performances. I would like to thank Grant Hodder for always being supportive at the sports desk and for giving me so much knowledge about design and editing. The newsroom managers at KOMU also made my journey memorable especially Angie Bailey, Kent Collins, Elizabeth Frogge, Sarah Hill, Jeimmie Nevalga, and Amy Simons. I would also like to say thank you to Dr. Saleem Alhabash and Dr. Cynthia Frisby for assisting me in previous research and supporting me through my final semesters. I would like to acknowledge the many residents of Bahamian who not only took my questionnaire but also assisted in disseminating it throughout the community. I also cannot express my appreciation enough to the committee of the Duffy Fund—named in honor of former Missourian city editor Tom Duffy—for assisting me in my thesis. It is so uplifting that the committee believed in my study to award me in such a competitive process. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ ii LIST OF DIAGRAMS .........................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... viii Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. REVIEWING THE LITERATURE .............................................................................................. 7 3. HOW IT WAS DONE .................................................................................................................. 4. PRESENTING THE DATA ......................................................................................................... 40 5. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN ......................................................................................... 67 6. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................. 1106 21 APPENDIX 1. THE QUESTIONAIRE .............................................................................................................. 1 2. The Flyer 31 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 1 43 iv LIST OF DIAGRAMS Diagram Page 1. Representation of anticipated interplay of variables fear/worry, information insufficiency, and increased media usage likelihood ................................................... 36 2. Relationship between fear/worry and perceived hazard characteristics ...................... 80 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Cyclonic Events Effecting New Providence & Bahamas during the survey period of August 8 and September 15, 2011 ...................................................................................... 54 2. Factor Loadings, Reliability, and Variance Explained for Institutional Trust Variables ..................................................................................................................................... 56 3. Correlation values between demographics and hazard perception variables and fear ....................................................................................................................................... 58 4. Reliability of Storm Usage Variables ................................................................................... 59 5. Factor loadings, reliability, & variance explained for Emergency Media Use variables ..................................................................................................................................... 64 6. Change in Emergency Media Use .......................................................................................... 65 7. Education Levels of Respondents ......................................................................................... 69 8. Comparison of sample’s residence to population’s residence ................................. 71 9. Mean responses of hazard perception variables and fear/worry .......................... 75 10. Factor Loadings, Reliability, & Variance Explained for fear/worry variables ... 76 11. Influence of Hazard Perception and Demographics