Klamath Falls 2020 Exceptional Event EPA Concurrence Request Submitted to: EPA, Region 10 By: Margaret Miller and Anthony Barnack July 2021 Oregon DEQ Air Quality Planning 700 NE Multnomah St., Suite #600 Portland, OR 97232 Phone: 503.347.5028 Fax: 503 229-6762 Contact: Margaret Miller www.oregon.gov/DEQ DEQ is a leader in restoring, maintaining and enhancing the quality of Oregon’s air, land and water. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality This report prepared by: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality 700 NE Multnomah St., Suite #600 Portland, OR 97232 1-800-452-4011 www.oregon.gov/deq Contact: Margaret Miller [email protected] 503-347-5028 Alternative formats (Braille, large type) of this document can be made available. Contact DEQ, Portland, at 503-229-5696, or toll-free in Oregon at 1-800-452-4011, ext. 5696. State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality ii 2020 Klamath Falls Wildfire Exceptional Events Contents REQUIRED ELEMENTS OF THE EXCEPTIONAL EVENT RULE ....................................................................................................... 9 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 10 1 CONCEPTUAL MODEL ................................................................................................................................. 10 1.1 OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 1.2 TRANSPORT WEATHER CONDITIONS & TRENDS ........................................................................................................ 11 HISTORIC WINDSTORM ON SEPTEMBER 7TH AND 8TH ............................................................................................. 12 1.3 SOURCE AREA AND AFFECTED REGION ................................................................................................................... 14 1.3.1 Key Wildfires or Multi-Source Smoke Events ....................................................................................... 15 1.3.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 17 1.3.3 Klamath Falls Monitor Impacted Days & Emmission Source ................................................................ 17 2 CLEAR CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP .................................................................................................................... 31 2.1 METEOROLOGICAL DATA AND TIME SERIES ............................................................................................................. 31 2.2 SATELLITE DATA, BACK TRAJECTORIES AND FORWARD TRAJECTORIES ........................................................................... 31 2.3 ALTERNATIVE SOURCE HYPOTHESES ....................................................................................................................... 31 2.3.1 Prescribed Burning ............................................................................................................................... 31 2.3.2 Crop Residue & Agricultural Burning ................................................................................................... 31 2.3.3 Residential Wood Combustion ............................................................................................................. 32 2.3.4 Open Burning ....................................................................................................................................... 32 2.3.5 Vehicle Emissions ................................................................................................................................. 33 3 COMPARISON TO HISTORICAL FLUCTUATIONS ........................................................................................... 33 4 NOT REASONABLY CONTROLLABLE OR PREVENTABLE ................................................................................ 36 5 NATURAL EVENT OR HUMAN ACTIVITY UNLIKELY TO RECUR (NE/HAUR) ................................................... 36 6 MITIGATION ............................................................................................................................................... 36 7 INITIAL NOTIFICATION ................................................................................................................................ 38 8 PUBLIC COMMENT ...................................................................................................................................... 39 9 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................. 39 State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality 3 2020 Klamath Falls Wildfire Exceptional Events Tables Table 1. Monitor Values at Klamath Falls for which DEQ is Requesting EPA Concurrence................................. 5 Table 2A. Rank Percent of Requested Values, 2012-2020; July 22 - October. 9 (T640x) ................................... 6 Table 2B. Rank Percent of Requested Values, 2012-2020; July 22 - October. 9 (FRM) ..................................... 8 Table 3. Summary of Elements Included in this Demonstration.. ......................................................................... 9 Table 4. August Event Details (IT & RT) ............................................................................................................ 20 Table 5. September Event Details (IT & RT) ...................................................................................................... 23 Table 6. October Event Details (IT & RT) ........................................................................................................... 27 Table 7. October Event Average Tempartures .................................................................................................. 31 Table 8. Basic Descriptive Statistics for 24-hr PM2.5 Concentrations Recorded at Peterson School Monitor in Klamath Falls, OR from 2011 - 2020 .................................................................................................. 34 Table 8. Wildfire Response Protocol: Actions and Agencies Responsible. ........................................................ 36 Table 9. Exceptional Event Rule Procedure Requirements................................................................................ 37 Figures Figure 1. Total Wildfire Acres Burned in Oregon vs. 10-year Average, 2010-2020.. ......................................... 11 Figure 2. Northwest Average Temperatures and Precipitation … ...................................................................... 11 Figure 3. Pacific Northwest Mean Temperatures Departure from Normal and Precipitation Percent of Normal from June – Septmeber 2020… .......................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 4. North American Drought Monitor Map as for Sept. 30, 2020…. ......................................................... 12 Figure 5. PNW Mean Temperatures Depature from Normal for September, 2020. ........................................... 13 Figure 6. Map of 2020 Oregon Large Wildfires….. ............................................................................................ 15 Figure 7 A-E. Including time series, satellite smoke images, and modeling results for Klamath Falls Peterson School monitors for 7/27/2020 & 7/28/2020.................................................................................................. 18-20 Figure 8 A-C. Time Series for Event, Satellite Smoke Image, and Modeling Results for Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor, 8/24/2020. ........................................................................................................................... 21-22 Figure 9 A-F. Time series, Satellite Smoke Image, and Modeling Results for Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor, 8/23/17. ........................................................................................................................................... 24-27 Figure 10 A-D. Time Series, Satellite Smoke Image, and Modeling Results for Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor, 8/26/17. ........................................................................................................................................... 28-29 Figure 11. Historical Comparison of PM2.5 Concentrations at Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor on the T640x.................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Figure 12. Historical Comparison of PM2.5 Concentrations at Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor on the T640x Zoomed in on Fire Season ..................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 13. Historical Comparison of PM2.5 Concentrations at Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor on the FRM .................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 14. Historical Comparison of PM2.5 Concentrations at Klamath Falls Peterson School Monitor on the FRM Zoomed in on Fire Season .......................................................................................................................