European Coastal Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: A review of evidence ETC/ACC Technical Paper 2010/7 November 2010 N. Hodgson, M. Harley, J. van Minnen, J. Schrander, T. Voigt, G. Celikyilmaz-Aydemir The European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC) is a consortium of European institutes under contract of the European Environment Agency PBL UBA-D UBA-V NILU AEAT AUTh CHMI MET.NO ÖKO TNO REC Front page picture: European coastline – top left: bank of Baltic; top-right: Veleka river flowing into Black Sea near Sinemorec, Bulgaria; bottom left: Sussex South Downs way the seven sisters; bottom right: Amalfi coast. Copyright: Shutterstock images Author affiliation: N. Hodgson, M. Harley: AEA Technology, UK J. van Minnen, J. Schrander: Netherlands Enviromental Assessment Agency (PBL), NL T. Voigt: Environmnetla agency Germany (UBA-D), DE G. Celikyilmaz-Aydemir: Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), HU DISCLAIMER This ETC/ACC Technical Paper has not been subjected to European Environment Agency (EEA) member country review. It does not represent the formal views of the EEA. © ETC/ACC, 2010. ETC/ACC Technical paper 2010/7 European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change PO Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands Phone +31 30 2743550 Fax +31 30 2744433 Email [email protected] Website http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/ 2 Contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Background to and objectives of the Technical Paper ................................................... 6 1.2. Policy setting .................................................................................................................. 6 1.3. Scientific basis................................................................................................................ 7 1.4. Introduction references................................................................................................. 11 2. Synthesis........................................................................................................ 12 2.1. Key messages from across the European Marine Regions........................................... 13 2.2. Key messages from within the European Marine Regions and sub-regions................ 14 2.2.1. Baltic Sea...................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.2. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Greater North Sea............................................................. 16 2.2.3. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Celtic Seas ...................................................................... 16 2.2.4. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast .................................... 17 2.2.5. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Macaronesian biogeographic region .............................. 18 2.2.6. Mediterranean Sea: Western Mediterranean Sea ........................................................ 19 2.2.7. Mediterranean Sea: Adriatic Sea, Ionian Sea and Central Mediterranean Sea ........... 20 2.2.8. Mediterranean Sea: Aegean-Levantine Sea................................................................. 21 2.2.9. Black Sea...................................................................................................................... 23 2.3. Recommendations for further research on European coastal climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation..................................................................................................... 24 2.4. References for synthesis chapter .................................................................................. 25 3. Baltic Sea....................................................................................................... 27 3.1. Physical geography and oceanography ........................................................................ 27 3.2. Biodiversity and ecosystems ........................................................................................ 28 3.3. Human geography ........................................................................................................ 28 3.4. Economic activities ...................................................................................................... 30 3.5. Climate change impacts................................................................................................ 30 3.6. Climate change vulnerabilities ..................................................................................... 33 3.7. Climate change adaptation ........................................................................................... 37 3.8. Case Study.................................................................................................................... 38 3.9. References .................................................................................................................... 39 4. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Greater North Sea ............................................. 42 4.1. Physical geography and oceanography ........................................................................ 42 4.2. Biodiversity and ecosystems ........................................................................................ 43 4.3. Human geography ........................................................................................................ 44 4.4. Economic activities ...................................................................................................... 45 4.5. Climate change impacts................................................................................................ 46 4.6. Climate change vulnerabilities ..................................................................................... 50 4.7. Climate change adaptation ........................................................................................... 53 4.8. Case study..................................................................................................................... 56 4.9. References .................................................................................................................... 57 5. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Celtic Seas......................................................... 61 5.1. Physical geography and oceanography ........................................................................ 61 5.2. Biodiversity and ecosystems ........................................................................................ 62 5.3. Human geography ........................................................................................................ 62 5.4. Economic activities ...................................................................................................... 62 5.5. Climate change impacts................................................................................................ 62 5.6. Climate change vulnerabilities ..................................................................................... 63 5.7. Climate change adaptation ........................................................................................... 64 3 5.8. Case studies .................................................................................................................. 65 5.9. References .................................................................................................................... 67 6. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast ......................69 6.1. Physical geography and oceanography ........................................................................ 69 6.2. Biodiversity and ecosystems ........................................................................................ 70 6.3. Human geography ........................................................................................................ 71 6.4. Economic activities ...................................................................................................... 71 6.5. Climate change impacts................................................................................................ 71 6.6. Climate change vulnerabilities ..................................................................................... 72 6.7. Climate change adaptation ........................................................................................... 72 6.8. Case studies .................................................................................................................. 74 6.9. References .................................................................................................................... 75 7. North-east Atlantic Ocean: Macaronesian biogeographic region................. 76 7.1. Physical geography and oceanography ........................................................................ 76 7.2. Biodiversity and ecosystems ........................................................................................ 78 7.3. Human geography ........................................................................................................ 79 7.4. Economic activities ...................................................................................................... 79 7.5. Climate change impacts................................................................................................ 80 7.6. Climate change vulnerabilities ..................................................................................... 81 7.7. Climate