2014 Election Preview I. Background on 2014 elections The 2014 election had been difficult to predict due to some dead-heat races in the Senate, but it appears that Republicans will have an edge next Tuesday in many close races and are poised to take control of Congress. The House of Representatives will stay Republican- controlled, with very few tight races due to districting. The Senate is the big wild card here as there is a great deal of uncertainty around what could happen in nine key races, just six of which could cost the Democrats their majority. Republicans should be on their way to a shoe-in election, gaining them control of both chambers of Congress due to a very unpopular 2nd term President and Congress’ low approval rating. However, because of campaign gaffes, some lack-luster candidates, and stumbles in races that should have been safe, their take-over of the Senate is in no way guaranteed. In general, Democrats need to focus on turnout/grassroots efforts, and Republicans need to focus on shoring up their base and avoiding gaffes. Things could also change a lot over the next few weeks so event at this late date, some races are very difficult to predict. II. United States House of Representatives All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election. Currently, Republicans control 233 seats and Democrats control 199 seats, with 3 vacancies. The 2014 election is unlikely to change Republicans strong majority in the House and may, in fact, result in a larger number of Republican controlled seats, as they are projected to add 5-7 seats on November 4th. Some of the key races the Outdoor Industry Association is watching are those where OIA Political Action Committee (OIAPAC), made contributions. Those include: Representative Jared Polis (D, CO-2) – OIAPAC approved a $5000 contribution to Polis, as he has consistently been a champion for the outdoor industry, on both the recreation and trade agendas. He is running against Republican George Leing. He is an original co-sponsor of the U.S. OUTDOOR Act and he signed the letter to the Administration in support of the industry’s priorities on apparel and footwear in the TPP. He is a supporter of the Land and Water Conservation Fund (LWCF) and a co-sponsor of the Wildfire Disaster Funding Act (WDFA). He has also worked with the industry on a land protection and wilderness bill in Colorado (Eagle and Summit County). Real Clear Politics (RCP) rates this race as “Safe Democrat.” We expect him to retain his seat. 1 Representative Suzann DelBene (D, WA-1) – OIAPAC approved a $1000 donation to DelBene mostly due to her strong support of outdoor recreation. She is running against Republican Pedro Celis. She has hosted roundtables in her district to promote outdoor recreation locally and supports LWCF and the WDFA on the national level. Given her location in much of the North Cascades, she is very interested in how to grow the economy through outdoor recreation. She is also eager to work closely with the outdoor industry on trade and recreation issues. DelBene is a co-sponsor of the US OUTDOOR Act in the House and signed the Congressional letter to the Administration supporting the industry’s priorities on apparel and footwear in the TPP. RCP rates this race as “Likely Democrat.” We expect her to retain her seat. Representative Scott Peters (D, CA-52) – OIAPAC approved a $1000 contribution to Peters due to his incredible support of recreation issues, and his very close race in San Diego. Peters is running against Republican Carl DeMaio. He's a co-sponsor of WDFA, supporter of LWCF, and has taken a pro-industry stance on conservation and open areas. Peters spoke at the OIAPAC breakfast at Rendezvous in 2013. While he has not been active on the outdoor industry’s trade agenda, he is a member of the New Democrats and the Ports Caucus and may be open to a balanced trade message. RCP rates this election as a toss-up with the latest San Diego Union-Tribune poll showing DeMaio up by three points. Representative Dave Reichert (R, WA-8) – OIAPAC approved a $1000 contribution to Reichert. He is running against Democrat Jason Ritchie. Reichert has been a strong supporter of the outdoor industry’s trade agenda. He is the lead sponsor of the US OUTDOOR Act in the House and signed a letter to the Administration supporting the industry’s priorities on apparel and footwear in the TPP trade negotiations. He also signed onto a letter in support of full-funding of LWCF, and co-sponsored legislation on WDFA. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect him to retain his seat. Representative Kurt Schrader (D, OR-5) – OIAPAC approved a $1000 contribution to Schrader, due in large part to his strong support for the outdoor industry’s trade agenda. He is running against Republican Tootie Smith. Schrader is an original co-sponsor of the U.S. OUTDOOR Act and signed a letter to the Administration on the industry’s priorities on apparel and footwear in the TPP. He is the Democratic sponsor of the WDFA and supports LWCF. RCP rates this race as “Safe Democrat.” We expect him to retain his seat. Representative Earl Blumenauer (D, OR,-3) – OIPAC approved $1000 contribution to Blumenauer as he is another strong supporter of both the outdoor recreation and trade agendas. He is running against Republican James Buchal. He is the lead Democratic sponsor of the US OUTDOOR Act in the House and signed the Congressional letter to the Administration supporting the industry’s priorities on apparel and footwear in the TPP. Blumenauer is an LWCF supporter and a co-sponsor of the WDFA. RCP rates this race as “Safe Democrat.” We expect him to retain his seat. 2 Representative Erik Paulsen (R, MN-3) – OIPAC approved a $750 donation to Paulsen. He is running against Democrat Sharon Sund. He is a strong support of the outdoor industry’s trade agenda and is an outdoor enthusiast. He took the lead on the Congressional sign-on letter to the Administration in support of the industry’s priorities on apparel and footwear in the TPP and is an original co-sponsor of the U.S. OUTDOOR Act. Paulsen has also supported recreation issues like the National Park's Centennial, and is an avid outdoor enthusiast. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect him to retain his seat. Representative Mike Simpson (R, ID-2) – OIAPAC approved a $500 donation to Simpson. Democrat Richard Stallings is running against Simpson for the seat. Simpson is the sponsor of the Wildfire Disaster Funding Act, works closely with the National Parks Coalition, and is an LWCF supporter and proponent of a local Wilderness proposal. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect him to retain his seat. OIA is also watching several other House races that may impact the outdoor industry, our 2015 policy agenda, and OIA’s outreach and advocacy strategies. Those races include: Representative Rob Bishop (R, UT-1) – Bishop is expected to win his race against Donna McAleer, a strong proponent of the outdoor industry in Utah and the unsuccessful candidate for the same seat in 2012. Bishop is likely to become Chairman of the House Resources Committee, a key committee for the outdoor industry’s public land and water legislation. He recently introduced the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Modernization Act (FLREA), a bill that authorizes the land management agencies to put park user fees towards recreation enhancements and gives guides and outfitters the authority they need to run trips on public lands. Bishop is also working with local conservation organization and businesses on a public lands bill in Utah. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect him to retain his seat. Representative Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) – Ryan is the former Republican nominee for Vice President and is expected to easily hold his seat this November. Currently Ryan is the Chairman of the Budget Committee, responsible for cutting recreation and land management budgets, and blocking important legislation like WDFA. Ryan will be key to the outdoor industry’s trade agenda as the likely Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. RCP rats this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect him to retain his seat. Representative Greg Walden (R-OR, 2) – Walden has been a supporter of the outdoor industry and is a rising star in the Republican Party. He will face Democrat Aele Christofferson in November. He is an original co-sponsor of the U.S. OUTDOOR Act and a co-sponsor of WDFA. RCP rates this race as “Safe Republican.” We expect him to retain his seat. Open Seat (UT- 4) – Republican Mia Love is expected to win the seat vacated by longtime outdoor industry champion, retiring Democratic Representative Jim Matheson. Love narrowly lost to Matheson in 2012 and in a recent UtahPolicy.com poll she leads her current opponent Democrat Doug Owens, a strong supporter of the outdoor industry 3 and personal friend to industry executives, 49 percent to 40 percent. Love is a rising star in the Republican Party and would become the first African American Republican woman to serve in the House of Representatives. OIAPAC hosted candidate forums for Love and Owens at ORSM 2014, but did not contribute to her campaign. Love has yet to take positions on trade and recreation issues related to the outdoor industry, but did get to meet some of our members and hear our concerns regarding the future of the industry and the state of public lands in Utah.