Evidence for the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Summary for Northern Ireland Author: Climate Northern Ireland Image: Rope Bridge, Carrick-a-Rede Summary of climate risks and opportunities for Northern Ireland The Independent Assessment used to help inform the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) assesses 61 risks and opportunities from climate change to Northern Ireland, including to business, infrastructure, housing, the natural environment, our health and from the impacts of climate change internationally. Risks categorised as “More action needed” and “Further investigation” are more urgent than “Watching brief” and “Sustain current action”. Of these 61 risks and opportunities, more action is needed now to address 31 of them, further investigation is needed for 19, sustaining current adaptation action is only deemed appropriate for five of the risks or opportunities and six have been classified as watching brief. Of the 61, six issues are deemed to be both a risk and opportunity, four of which are associated with the natural environment and each of these require more action or further investigation. There are also eight opportunities that could arise from climate change in Northern Ireland, with four of these also related to the natural environment. While many of the risks and opportunities are similar in urgency and magnitude across each UK nation, in Northern Ireland, the lower level of quality evidence available and in some sectors, relatively limited climate related policy in force, increase the uncertainty around future climate change impacts (although there are many policies in development and baseline studies underway). Changing climatic conditions and extreme weather event impacts may also be exacerbated in future due to the degraded state of the natural environment and the interactions with external factors such as pollution, overfishing and land use. In summary, risks in Northern Ireland that have a high future magnitude score and where more action is required now to address them, after considering any existing adaptation responses, include the following: • Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, wind, and altered hydrology (including water scarcity, flooding and saline intrusion). • Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species. • Risks to soils from changing climatic conditions including seasonal aridity and wetness. • Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from changing climatic conditions, including temperature change and water scarcity. • Risks to and opportunities for agricultural and forestry productivity from extreme events and changing climatic conditions (including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, coastal erosion, wind and saline intrusion). • Risks to agriculture from pests, pathogens and invasive species. • Risks to forestry from pests, pathogens and invasive species. • Risks to freshwater species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including higher water temperatures, flooding, water scarcity and phenological shifts. • Risks to marine species, habitats and fisheries from changing climatic conditions, including ocean acidification and higher water temperatures. • Risks to marine species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species. • Risks and opportunities to coastal species and habitats due to coastal flooding, erosion and climate factors. • Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from cascading failures. • Risks to infrastructure services from river, surface water and groundwater flooding. • Risks to transport from high and low temperatures, high winds, lightning. • Risks to health and wellbeing from high temperatures. • Risks to people, communities and buildings from flooding. • Risks to cultural heritage. • Risks to business sites from flooding. Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for Northern Ireland 2 • Risks to business locations and infrastructure from coastal change from erosion, flooding and extreme weather events. • Risks to UK food availability, safety, and quality from climate change overseas. • Risks to the UK from international violent conflict resulting from climate change on the UK. • Risks to international law and governance from climate change overseas that will impact the UK. • Risks from climate change on international trade routes. • Risk to UK public health from climate change overseas. • Risk multiplication from the interactions and cascades of named risks across systems and geographies. The rest of this report outlines the risks and opportunities in Northern Ireland associated with climate change, their urgency scores, the evidence for this and the benefits for further action in the next five years. Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for Northern Ireland 3 Contents 1. Introduction _______________________________________________________________ 7 2. Climate change in Northern Ireland ___________________________________________ 12 3. Summary of the risks and opportunities for Northern Ireland ______________________ 15 4. Natural Environment and Natural Assets _______________________________________ 23 N1. Terrestrial species and habitats _________________________________________________________ 25 N2. Terrestrial species and habitats _________________________________________________________ 28 N3. Terrestrial species and habitats _________________________________________________________ 29 N4. Soils _______________________________________________________________________________ 30 N5. Natural carbon stores, carbon sequestration and GHG emissions _______________________________ 32 N6. Agricultural and forestry productivity _____________________________________________________ 34 N7. Agriculture __________________________________________________________________________ 37 N8. Forestry ____________________________________________________________________________ 39 N9. Agricultural and forestry productivity _____________________________________________________ 40 N10. Aquifers and agricultural land __________________________________________________________ 42 N11. Freshwater species and habitats ________________________________________________________ 43 N12. Freshwater species and habitats ________________________________________________________ 45 N13. Freshwater species and habitats ________________________________________________________ 46 N14. Marine species, habitats and fisheries ___________________________________________________ 47 N15. Marine species, habitats and fisheries ___________________________________________________ 49 N16. Marine species and habitats ___________________________________________________________ 50 N17. Coastal species and habitats ___________________________________________________________ 52 N18. Natural heritage and landscape character ________________________________________________ 55 5. Infrastructure _____________________________________________________________ 56 I1. Infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) _______________________________________ 59 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report: Summary for Northern Ireland 4 I2. Infrastructure services _________________________________________________________________ 60 I3. Infrastructure services _________________________________________________________________ 63 I4. Bridges and pipelines __________________________________________________________________ 66 I5. Transport networks____________________________________________________________________ 67 I6. Hydroelectric generation _______________________________________________________________ 69 I7. Subterranean and surface infrastructure ___________________________________________________ 70 I8. Public water supplies __________________________________________________________________ 71 I9. Energy generation _____________________________________________________________________ 74 I10. Energy _____________________________________________________________________________ 75 I11. Offshore infrastructure ________________________________________________________________ 76 I12. Transport ___________________________________________________________________________ 77 I13. Digital _____________________________________________________________________________ 79 6. Health, Communities and the Built Environment ________________________________ 81 H1. Health and wellbeing __________________________________________________________________ 83 H2. Health and wellbeing __________________________________________________________________ 85 H3. People, communities and buildings ______________________________________________________ 87 H4. Viability of coastal communities _________________________________________________________ 92 H5. Building fabric _______________________________________________________________________ 94 H6. Household energy demand _____________________________________________________________ 96 H7. Health and wellbeing __________________________________________________________________ 98 H8. Health ____________________________________________________________________________ 100 H9. Food safety and food security __________________________________________________________ 101 H10. Health ___________________________________________________________________________ 103