Country Report: Tanzania Managing Risk and Reducing Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems under Variable and Changing Climate Soil-Water Management Research Programme Sokoine University of Agriculture September 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures ................................................................................................................ ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................. ii List of Photos ................................................................................................................. ii List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... v Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................... viii 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 2. Country Background .............................................................................................. 2 2.1 Geographical Location ................................................................................... 2 2.2 Climate ........................................................................................................... 3 2.2.1 Temperature pattern ............................................................................... 3 2.2.2 Rainfall pattern ....................................................................................... 5 2.3 Agriculture Sector and Agro-ecological Zones ............................................. 6 2.3.1 Agriculture sector................................................................................... 6 2.3.2 Agro-ecological zones ........................................................................... 6 3. Climate Change and Variability ............................................................................. 9 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Climate Variability and Trends in Tanzania .................................................. 9 3.2.1 How climate has been changing for be past 30 years ............................ 9 3.2.2 Drought and flood incidences in Tanzania .......................................... 12 3.3 Climate Change Projections in Tanzania ..................................................... 14 3.3.1 Temperature ......................................................................................... 14 3.3.2 Rainfall ................................................................................................. 15 3.4 Impacts and Vulnerability of Climate Change and Variability on Agricultural Systems ............................................................................................................ 16 3.4.1 Agricultural systems ............................................................................ 17 3.4.2 Water resources .................................................................................... 18 3.4.3 Human health ....................................................................................... 19 4. Strategies for Managing Risk and Reducing Vulnerability ................................. 20 4.1 Existing Indigenous and Exogenous Technologies ..................................... 20 4.1.1 Indigenous technologies ....................................................................... 20 4.1.2 Exogenous technologies ....................................................................... 22 4.2 Political Commitment and Institutional Aspects ......................................... 23 4.2.1 Role of policy ....................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 Institutional aspects .............................................................................. 25 5. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 27 6. Reference ............................................................................................................. 28 i List of Figures Figure 1: Location of Tanzania in relation to other countries in the CCAA-IDRC project ............................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 2: Annual mean maximum temperature in Tanzania (1971 – 2000) .................. 4 Figure 3: Annual mean minimum temperature in Tanzania (1971 – 2000) .................. 4 Figure 4: Total annual mean rainfall in Tanzania (1971 – 2000) .................................. 5 Figure 5: Agro-Ecological Zones of Tanzania. .............................................................. 8 Figure 6: Global land-ocean temperature anomaly (°C). Base period 1951-1980. ....... 9 Figure 7: Mean annual maximum temperature time series for Songea, Bukoba, Arusha and Zanzibar stations (1958 – 2005) ............................................................................ 10 Figure 8: Year to year rainfall fluctuations for Zanzibar and Dodoma stations .......... 11 Figure 9: Annual total rainfall differences between 1971-2000 and 1961-1990 epochs ...................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 10: Mean temperature change due to 2xCO2 concentration by 2100 ............... 15 Figure 11: Change in mean annual rainfall (%) due to 2xCO2 concentration ............. 16 List of Tables Table 1: Agro-Ecological Zones of Tanzania ................................................................ 7 Table 2: Top ten natural disasters and the number of people affected ........................ 12 Table 3: Top ten natural disasters and their economic damage ................................... 12 Table 4: Droughts and floods incidences in Tanzania from 1901 to 2007 .................. 12 List of Plates Photo 1: Weak and sick cattle have been dying because there has not been enough food and water.............................................................................................................. 13 ii List of Acronyms ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Programme ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy AEZ Agro-ecological Zones CARE Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere CCAA Climate Change Adaptation in Africa CERES Crop Environment Resource Synthesis Model CLIMAG Climate Prediction and Agriculture CO2 Carbon Dioxide DADP District Agricultural Development Programme DFID Department for International Development DMD Disaster Management Department DMTC Disaster Management Training Centre EM-DAT The International Disaster Database GCMs Global Circulation Models GDP Gross Domestic Product GHA Greater Horn of Africa GHG Greenhouse Gas GNI Gross National Income HFA Hyogo Framework of Action IDRC International Development Research Centre IIED International Institute for Environment and Development IK Indigenous Knowledge IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change MAFSC Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives MDGs Millennium Development Goals NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NEMC National Environmental Management Council NGOs Non Governmental Organizations NOG National Operational Guidelines NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper RWH Rainwater harvesting iii TMA Tanzania Meteorological Agency UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biodiversity UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change URT United Republic of Tanzania WRS Warehouse Receipt Systems iv Executive Summary The effects of climate change and variability are undeniably clear with impacts already affecting ecosystems, biodiversity and people. Large-scale events, such as the recent droughts and floods in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), illustrate ways in which many communities are already suffering from less predictable – and more extreme – weather patterns. The projected climate change will have far-reaching, negative impacts on the availability of water resources, food and agricultural security, human health, tourism and biodiversity. In addition, climate change has the potential to undermine economic development, increasing poverty and delaying or preventing the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In order to reduce current vulnerability to climatic hazards and stresses as well as to prepare for future climate change, the adaptive capacity of the GHA region needs to be strengthened. This requires, among other things, increased scientific understanding of the impacts of, and vulnerability to, climatic variability and change, and the options to respond to these changes through adaptation. Tanzania’s climate is generally variable in both time and space. Analysis of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures over the last 30 years showed an upward trend. The increasing trend was mostly associated with the months of January, July and December. The retreat of the glaciers of Mt. Kilimanjaro, the submersion of Maziwe Island in the Indian Ocean, decrease in water levels of Lake Victoria and increasing malaria endemicity in highland areas of the country