GO Expansion Full Business Case November 2018 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE GO Expansion Full Business Case November 2018 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE Contents Executive Summary 2. Context 3. GO Expansion Program Problem and Opportunity ii 2.1 The Need for Regional Transportation 3.2 Reference Concept Design Process Investment: Managing Growth and Assumptions 61 The Benefit iii Congestion 12 3.3 Program Interdependencies and Preface & Background iv 2.2 Problem Statement 13 Parallel Projects 69 The Case for Change vi Problem Deep Dive — Proposed Investment ix Understanding the Need for Investment 15 Strategic Case xiv Planned Transportation Investments 21 4. Strategic Case Economic Case xviii 2.3 The Opportunity: Strategic Case Summary 74 Invest in Rail to Accommodate Growth 24 Financial Case xx 4.1 Transportation Benefits 75 2.4 The Solution: Transform GO Rail Deliverability and Operations Case xxii into a Rapid Rail System 28 4.2 Quality of Life Benefits 84 Conclusion xxiii Experience from other City-Regions 30 4.3 Economic Prosperity and Development Benefits 88 GO Expansion – Regional Benefits and Evaluation Framework 32 4.4 Protected Environment Benefits 97 1. Introduction 4.5 Strategic Case Conclusions 100 Background 3 Summary 100 What is GO Expansion? 3 3. GO Expansion Program Key Considerations for Future Program Planning 102 What is a Full Business Case? 6 3.1 Program Definition 41 Full Business Case Structure 6 Program Overview 41 Reference Concept Design Summary 41 5. Economic Case GO Rail Line Improvements 49 Economic Case Summary 106 Lakeshore West 50 5.1 Economic Case Analysis 107 Kitchener 52 Understanding Benefit CostAnalysis 107 Barrie 54 5.2 Economic Narrative 109 Stouffville 56 5.3 Economic Costs 110 Lakeshore East 58 5.4 User Impacts 111 Milton and Richmond Hill 60 5.5 External Impacts 113 5.6 Wider Impacts 115 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE 5. Economic Case 7. Deliverability and 8. Conclusion 5.7 Economic Case Conclusions 116 Operations Case Business Case Conclusion 154 Summary 116 7.1 Key Delivery Strategies 142 Recommendations 156 Conclusions 119 Overview 142 Next Steps 156 Benefit Dependencies and Risk 120 Governance 142 Other Benefits and Integrated Project Team 142 157 Benefits Not onsideredC 120 Delivery of the On-Corridor Works and Acknowlegments Sensitivity Tests 122 Services in an Integrated Alternative Finance and Procurement Process (DBFOM) 143 Sensitivity Test Analysis 122 Enabling OnCorr Project Co to Optimize Glossary 158 Program Specification Tests 126 System Design and Service Plans 143 Key Considerations for No Transfer of Traffic or Revenue Risk 143 Future Program Planning 126 Flexibility for Future Service Appendix: Peer Review Requirements 143 Overview of the GO Expansion Community Consultation 143 6. Financial Case Business Case Peer Review 160 Readiness 143 Financial Case Summary 130 7.2 Procurement 145 6.1 Financial Case Analysis 131 Overview 145 6.2 Financial Impact to Metrolinx 132 Procurement Structure 146 6.3 Funding Sources 135 Early Works 146 6.4 Financial Case Conclusions 136 Off-Corridor 146 Financial Risks and Risk Management 137 On-Corridor 146 Conclusions 138 Industry Capability to Deliver the Sensitivity Tests 138 On-Corridor Procurement 147 7.3 Operations and Maintenance 148 Overview 148 Roles and Responsibilities 148 Operational Framework 150 7.4 Risks Management 151 Overview 151 CHAPTER UNDER DEVELOPMENT ToC to be updated GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE Figures Index 1. Introduction 2. Context 3. GO Expansion Program Definition 1.1 Mapping the evolution 2.12 Benefits of GO Expansion 32 3.12 GO Expansion Design Timeline 63 of GO Expansion 5 2.13 GO Expansion Evaluation Framework 34 3.13 GO Expansion Service and 1.2 Illustration of the Business Case Infrastructure Design Process 65 2.14 GO Expansion Roadmap and and Stage Gate Process 6 Evaluation Approach 36-37 1.3 The Business Case structure 7 4. Strategic Case 3. GO Expansion Program Definition 4.1 GO Rail Annual Ridership 2. Context With and Without GO Expansion 76 3.1 Overview of GO Rail Services 2.1 Applying the 2041 Regional After GO Expansion 43 4.2 GO Rail Ridership Compared to Transportation Plan Vision in the Other North American 3.2 AM Peak Reference Concept Design GO Expansion Full Business Case Passenger Railways 77 GO Rail Services after GO Expansion 44 Strategic and Policy Considerations 4.3 GO Rail Ridership After for Transportation Investment 12 3.3 Off-Peak Reference Concept Design GO Expansion by Time of Day 77 GO Rail Services after GO Expansion 45 2.2 What happens if the problem is not 4.4 GO Rail Ridership Change in addressed? 14 3.4 Reference Concept Design Peak Period Ridership After GO Expansion 2.3 Transportation Markets in the GO Expansion is Implemented, Travel Time Improvements 46 GO Service Area 15 2031 (reflective of ridership after 3.5 Comparison of Travel Times on program is fully implemented) 78 2.4 Forecasted Population Growth GO Rail to Downtown Toronto Before by 2041 in the Greater Toronto 4.5 GO Rail Ridership Change in Off-Peak and After GO Expansion in the AM Peak 47 and Hamilton Area 16 Ridership After GO Expansion is 3.6 Comparison of Travel Times on Implemented, 2055 (reflective of 2.5 Employment Growth in the GO Rail to Dowtown Toronto Before ridership after program is fully Greater Toronto and Hamilton and After GO Expansion in the Off Peak 48 implemented) 79 Area from 2011 to 2041 17 4.6 Comparison of Operating Costs 2.6 GTHA Travel Market Analysis 18 3.7 Lakeshore West Reference Concept Design Frequency and Speed Improvements 51 and Revenue for GO Rail in the 2.7 Total peak period travel demand by BAU and with GO Expansion 81 travel market, 2011 and 2041 19 3.8 Kitchener Reference Concept Design 4.7 Population Living Within a Frequency and Speed Improvements 53 2.8 Rapid Transit and Set Distance from a GO Rail Station GO Rail Interconnectivity 22 3.9 Barrie Reference Concept Design Frequency with Two-Way, All-Day Service Before and After GO Expansion 85 2.9 Comparing Auto and and Speed Improvements 55 GO Transit Travel Times in 2018 26-27 3.10 StouffvilleReference Concept Design 4.8 Amount of the GTHA’s Population That Can Access Downtown Toronto 2.10 Example Rapid Rail Systems 30 Frequency and Speed Improvements 57 by Travel Time Before and 2.11 Rapid Rail Systems Around the World 31 3.11 Lakeshore East Reference Concept Design After GO Expansion 85 Frequency and Speed Improvements 59 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE 4. Strategic Case 5. Economic Case Photo Credits (Creative Commons) 4.9 Employment within a set distance of 5.1 Economic Case Narrative 109 David Wilson a GO Rail station with Two-Way, CC BY-SA 2.0 GO Train 1968 v 5.2 GO Expansion All-Day Service 89 Economic Summary – Network 116 John Ray (Flickr) 4.10 Amount of the GTHA’s Jobs CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 Paris RER viii, 30 5.3 GO Expansion That Are Within Travel Times of Economic Summary – By Line 118 Frederick K Larkin (Flickr) Downtown Toronto Before and CC-BY-SA 2.0 After GO Expansion 89 GO MP Locomotive Blank Pages 4.11 GO Expansion will increase the Tom Flemming (Flickr) economic connectivity and 7. Deliverability and CC BY-NC 2.0 Hamilton GO Centre 75 prosperity of the region 91 Operations Case Simon Carr (Flickr) 4.12 GO Rail Journey Time Between CC BY-SA 2.0 GO Union Station 88 Downtown Toronto and Urban Growth 7.1 GO Expansion Project Delivery 142 Centres and Employment Hubs in 7.2 Infrastructure Procurement Models 145 Lord Of The Wings (Flickr) the Peak Period without GO Expansion 92 CC BY-SA 2.0 GO Train in Foliage 97 4.13 GO Rail Journey Time Between Downtown All other photos used on this Toronto and Urban Growth Centres and FBC are of public domain Employment Hubs in the Peak Period with GO Expansion 93 4.14 GO Rail Journey Time Between Downtown Toronto and Urban Growth Centres and Employment Hubs in the Off-Peak Period without GO Expansion 94 4.15 GO Rail Journey Time Between Downtown Toronto and Urban Growth Centres and Employment Hubs in the Off-Peak Period with GO Expansion 95 4.16 Average GHG Emissions Per Passenger Trip on GO Rail 98 4.17 Ten Reasons Communities in the GO Service Area Benefit From GO Expansion 100 GO EXPANSION FULL BUSINESS CASE Tables Index 2. Context 4. Strategic Case 6. Financial Case 2.1 High Level Review of Existing GTHA 4.1 GO Rail Ridership Growth with 6.1 Financial Case Assumptions 131 Transportation Network Modes for and Without GO Expansion 76 6.2 Costs to Deliver GO Expansion 133 Medium and Long Distance Travel 20 4.2 Customer Service Improvements for 6.3 GO Expansion Revenue Impacts 134 2.2 Comparing How Different Modes GO Rail based on the 2041 Regional Could Address the Transportation Plan Personas 83 6.4 Funding Sources 135 Problem Statement 25 4.3 Benefits of GO Expansion to 6.5 Financial Case Summary 136 2.3 The Role of Rapid Rail as Part of Rail Passengers, Drivers, and the Region 102 Regional Transportation Networks 29 4.4 Impact of other planned investments 2.4 Key Stakeholder Plans and Projects, on the Strategic Case for 7. Deliverability and Municipval Review 33 GO Expansion 103 Operations Case 7.1 GO Expansion Environmental 3. GO Expansion Program Definition 5. Economic Case Assessment 144 7.2 On-Corridor Procurement Roles and 3.1 GO Expansion Program Description, 5.1 Economic Case Narrative 108 Responsibilities 149 Objectives, and Reference Design 5.2 GO Expansion Costs Summary 42 (incremental to BAU scenario) 110 3.2 GO Expansion Improvements to the 5.3 User Impacts Summary 112 Lakeshore West Line 50 8.