Edgar Mannheimer STVK02 Department of Political Science VT2014 Why Egypt, but not Tunisia? Comparing transitions in Egypt and Tunisia Author: Edgar Mannheimer Supervisor: Fariborz Zelli 1 Edgar Mannheimer STVK02 Abstract The purpose of this paper is to explain why Egypt’s transition from authoritarianism has so-far failed, while Tunisia’s is still moving forward. By using relevant theories within the field of democratization and transitology, this study examines three crucial differences in the two cases, which explain the difference in their respective outcomes. These three underlying differences are in the two cases’ military- influence, political society, and international pressure. This paper shows how the presence or absence of these influential factors have been a big part in determining Egypt and Tunisia’s transitional success. To compliment the study, six in-depth interviews with journalists, activists, analysts, and bloggers have been conducted – giving me a deeper understanding of the two cases and my study itself. Why was there an authoritarian counter-coup in Egypt, but not in Tunisia? Keywords: Egypt, Tunisia, Democratization, Transition, Authoritarianism Word count: 9649 2 Edgar Mannheimer STVK02 Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 5 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Comparative Case Study .................................................................................................. 6 3 Theory ..................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Influence of the Military .................................................................................................. 8 3.2 Political Society ................................................................................................................ 9 3.3 International Pressure ..................................................................................................... 10 3.4 Overlaps ......................................................................................................................... 10 4 Historical Background ........................................................................................................... 11 4.1 Egypt .............................................................................................................................. 11 4.2 Tunisia ............................................................................................................................ 12 5 Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 15 5.1 Influence of the Military ................................................................................................ 15 5.1.1 Egypt ....................................................................................................................... 15 5.1.2 Tunisia ..................................................................................................................... 19 5.2 Political Society .............................................................................................................. 20 5.2.1 Tunisia’s Transition ................................................................................................. 20 5.2.2 Egypt’s (lack of) Political Society .......................................................................... 22 5.3 International Pressure ..................................................................................................... 23 5.4 Overlaps ......................................................................................................................... 25 5.4.1 Military Influence – Political Society ..................................................................... 25 5.4.2 Political Society – International Pressure ................................................................ 25 5.4.3 International Pressure – Military Influence ............................................................. 25 6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 27 7 References ............................................................................................................................. 28 7.1 Oral Interviews ............................................................................................................... 28 7.2 Literature ........................................................................................................................ 28 7.3 Internet Sources .............................................................................................................. 29 8 Appendices ............................................................................................................................ 31 8.1 Appendix 1 ..................................................................................................................... 31 8.2 Appendix 2 ..................................................................................................................... 32 3 Edgar Mannheimer STVK02 Acknowledgements Without the help of many people along the way, I would not have had the possibility to fully complete this study. I would like to thank the six voluntary interviewees, their responses and insights gave me much guidance and inspiration to write this paper. A special thank you is also dedicated to my supervisor, who encouraged my initial idea, and gave me options and advice throughout the writing-process. I also thank everybody in my various peer-review groups who gave much-needed critical feedback, without which my paper would not be what it is. I would also like to acknowledge everyone who has helped me by editing, and reviewing my paper out of simple good will. It means a lot, thank you. 4 Edgar Mannheimer STVK02 1 Introduction Until this day, democracy has proven, provisionally, to be the least harmful form of government – making it desirable for many people. In countries that lack key democratic institutions, or democracy itself, democratization is a process that is meant to lead said countries on a path towards democracy. Egypt and Tunisia are interesting cases to compare because of their perceived similarities but crucial underlying differences. Tunisia experienced a popular uprising against the dictator Zine El Abedine Ben-Ali, who ruled the country for more than two decades. This uprising called for greater freedoms of expression and opinion, greater equality, greater political representation and transparency, and an end to police brutality and corruption. This revolt spread to Egypt and many other Arab countries in a wave of revolts, now known as the Arab Spring. In both countries, the popular movement managed to topple dictators who ruled with iron fists, backed up by powerful police and/or military structures. After this initial toppling, a transition from authoritarianism was initiated, with the end goal being, at best, the consolidation of a true democracy (O’Donnell & Schmitter, 1986:3). This paper seeks to enquire whether certain factors have eroded Egypt’s path to democratization to the extent that the regime, in fact, has not transitioned to another form of government. At the same time, the study looks at factors in Tunisia, to achieve a greater understanding of the differences between the two cases. The first democratically elected President of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi was toppled one year after he was elected by the Military. This military coup has led to increased political polarization and crackdown on dissent. Meanwhile, in Tunisia, the development has been quite different - the military did not intervene. A civilian national unity government was introduced. Though there have been security and legitimacy questions, and outright protests against the interim government, it never descended into chaos quite like in Egypt. There is the same political split in Tunisia as in Egypt, but Tunisians managed to negotiate a compromised solution, and draft a constitution taking into consideration many different aspects of the country and the people living in it. The question this paper aims to answer is therefore, why was there an authoritarian ‘counter-coup’ in Egypt, and not in Tunisia? The comparative methodology will be expanded on and further defined in the forthcoming chapter on methods. Both Egypt and Tunisia are experiencing transitional processes, and because of this, the theoretical field of democratization and transitology are the most appropriate to apply to this study. This will be explained further in the third chapter. Chapter four will deal with the historical background to contextualize current events in the two countries. Finally, the analysis will be presented in chapter five, tying together the theories and fully answering the question. The conclusion will present the final findings and results of the study. 5 Edgar Mannheimer STVK02 2 Methodology To narrow my interests