Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports (ICAR) 11-2020 COVID-19 Evacuation and Sheltering Risk Perception Study Joshua G. Behr Old Dominion University, [email protected] Rafael Diaz Old Dominion University, [email protected] Wie Yusuf Old Dominion University, [email protected] Bridget Giles Old Dominion University, [email protected] Kaleen Lawsure Old Dominion University, [email protected] See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/odurc-presentations Part of the Emergency and Disaster Management Commons, and the Environmental Public Health Commons Repository Citation Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael; Yusuf, Wie; Giles, Bridget; Lawsure, Kaleen; and McLeod, George, "COVID-19 Evacuation and Sheltering Risk Perception Study" (2020). Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports. 28. https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/odurc-presentations/28 This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience (ICAR) at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Authors Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz, Wie Yusuf, Bridget Giles, Kaleen Lawsure, and George McLeod This report is available at ODU Digital Commons: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/odurc-presentations/28 1 | P a g e November 10, 2020 Attention: Curtis Brown State Coordinator of Emergency Management Michelle Oblinsky VEST Bureau Chief Subject: COVID-19 Evacuation and Sheltering Risk Perception Study Enclosure: (1) Draft Final Report Curtis and Michelle: The Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) is pleased to submit the enclosed Draft Final Report in accordance with the contract requirements for VMASC Project 200334-010 titled, “COVID-19 Evacuation and Sheltering Risk Perception Study.” Please direct any questions of a technical nature to Dr. Joshua G Behr ( email: [email protected], cell 757-683-6564 ). Regards, Dr. Joshua Behr Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) @ Old Dominion University 1030 University Blvd. Suffolk, VA 23435 757.638.6564 (Office) 757.927.9735 (Cell) [email protected] 2 | P a g e Table of Contents Executive Overview .................................................................................................................................... 23 Executive Summary of Findings ................................................................................................................. 25 Anticipated Change in Evacuation & Sheltering Behaviors under COVID .............................................. 26 Households that Plan to Shelter in the Region, other than at a Public Shelter, under COVID ............... 27 Households that Plan to Shelter in a Public Shelter in the Region under COVID ................................... 30 Households that Plan to Evacuate from the Region under COVID ......................................................... 31 Perceptions & Behaviors Across All Households under COVID .............................................................. 33 Perceptions & Behaviors for Adult Disability & ADL Households under COVID ..................................... 36 Eastern Shore (Accomack and Northampton) under COVID .................................................................. 37 Household Characteristics ...................................................................................................................... 40 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Action Area #1: Shelter Staff & Management ........................................................................................ 43 Action Area #2: Shelter Capacity ............................................................................................................ 44 Action Area #3: Evacuation Capacity ...................................................................................................... 46 Action Area #4: Communications Guidelines ......................................................................................... 47 Action Area #5: Communication Strategies ............................................................................................ 48 Action Area #6: Equity & Blue Sky Planning for Recovery ...................................................................... 49 Part 1: Introduction and Background ........................................................................................................ 50 Major Parts of this Report....................................................................................................................... 50 Purpose ................................................................................................................................................... 53 Significance ............................................................................................................................................. 54 COVID-19 Management Strategies ......................................................................................................... 55 Evacuation & Public Shelter Planning ..................................................................................................... 58 The 2020 Hurricane Season .................................................................................................................... 61 Historic Hurricane Tracks ........................................................................................................................ 61 Study Area & COVID Maps ...................................................................................................................... 65 Heatlh Districts (Map) ......................................................................................................................... 65 COVID-19 Cases (Map) ........................................................................................................................ 66 COVID-19 Cases per 100k Pop (Map) .................................................................................................. 67 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (Map) ....................................................................................................... 68 COVID-19 Hospitalizations per 100k Pop (Map) ................................................................................. 69 3 | P a g e COVID-19 Deaths (Map) ...................................................................................................................... 70 COVID-19 Deaths per 100k Pop (Map) ............................................................................................... 71 Part 2: Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 72 Survey Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 72 Contact Methods ................................................................................................................................ 73 Response Rates by Locality ................................................................................................................. 73 Distribution of Respondents by Locality ............................................................................................. 74 Responses by Modality ....................................................................................................................... 74 Spatial Placement of Households (Map) ............................................................................................. 75 Unit of Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 76 Approach & Reporting ............................................................................................................................ 77 Control Variables..................................................................................................................................... 78 Income ................................................................................................................................................ 78 Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................................ 79 COVID Propinquity .............................................................................................................................. 82 Medical Fragility .................................................................................................................................. 83 Evacuation Zones ................................................................................................................................ 85 Part 3: Household Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 86 Years Living in Hampton Roads (5 Year Increment) ................................................................................ 87 Years Living in Hampton Roads (10 Year Increment) .............................................................................. 88 ..by..Medically