Midwest High Speed Rail Association The Economic Impacts of High Speed Rail: Transforming the Midwest A study of the development, implementation, and economic impacts of high-speed rail in the Midwest conducted by AECOM and the Economic Development Research Group, Inc. and sponsored by Siemens MidwestHSR.org “The Economic Impacts of High Speed Rail: Transforming the Midwest” Technical Report Prepared for: Midwest High Speed Rail Association Prepared by: Sponsored by: May 2011 CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Study Area.....................................................................................................................................2 1.2 Study Corridors .............................................................................................................................3 1.3 Performance Standards for Study Scenarios..............................................................................13 1.4 Route and Track Improvements..................................................................................................16 2.0 Potential Midwest Region 220-mph High-Speed Rail Network........................................................18 2.1 Chicago to Minneapolis/St. Paul .................................................................................................19 2.2 Chicago to St. Louis ....................................................................................................................25 2.3 Chicago to Cincinnati ..................................................................................................................28 2.4 Chicago to Detroit/Cleveland ......................................................................................................30 3.0 Midwest Regional Rail and Bus Connections ..................................................................................33 3.1 Quality of Connectivity Points .....................................................................................................34 3.2 New Connectivity Points .............................................................................................................38 3.3 Regional Intercity Rail Service ....................................................................................................38 3.4 Regional Bus Connections..........................................................................................................45 3.5 Intermodal Integration with Metropolitan Bus and Rail Services ................................................47 3.6 Connectivity Points with Commuter Rail and Local Transit ........................................................56 3.7 Stations and Transit-Oriented Development...............................................................................66 4.0 Chicago Union Station and the Central Area Action Plan (CAAP) ..................................................71 4.1 Chicago Union Station ................................................................................................................71 4.2 Central Area Action Plan (CAAP)................................................................................................74 4.3 West Loop Transportation Center...............................................................................................79 5.0 System Facilities ..............................................................................................................................80 5.1 Heavy Maintenance Facility (HMF).............................................................................................81 5.2 Overnight Storage and Light Maintenance .................................................................................82 5.3 Midwest High-Speed Rail Storage and Maintenance Options....................................................82 5.4 Fleet Size ....................................................................................................................................83 6.0 Operations and Travel Time.............................................................................................................83 7.0 Ridership ..........................................................................................................................................86 8.0 Economic Impacts and Other Benefits.............................................................................................89 8.1 Economic Impacts.......................................................................................................................89 8.2 Other Benefits .............................................................................................................................95 9.0 Preliminary Planning Level Capital Cost Estimate...........................................................................96 9.1 Typical Unit Costs .......................................................................................................................96 9.2 Summary of Planning Level Cost Estimates...............................................................................96 EDR Group, Inc. and AECOM i May 2011 9.3 Cost for 150-mph System .........................................................................................................103 10.0 Phasing .....................................................................................................................................104 11.0 High-Speed Rail Development Checklist ..................................................................................106 11.1 Which Outlying Metropolitan Areas Will be the Endpoints of HSR Corridors? .........................106 11.2 Where Will the Downtown HSR Station be Located? ...............................................................107 11.3 How Should Chicago’s Existing Rail Terminal be Upgraded to Accommodate HSR? .............108 11.4 How Would the Potential for Through Trains be Accommodated in Chicago?.........................108 11.5 What Access Improvements Should be Provided at the HSR Hub? ........................................109 11.6 What Connectivity Should be Provided for HSR Service in the Metropolitan Area? ................111 11.7 How Can We Make Short-Term Changes to Accommodate HSR?..........................................114 11.8 How Will HSR Access to the Downtown Terminal be Accommodated?...................................116 12.0 Guidance for Other Cities..........................................................................................................116 12.1 System Planning .......................................................................................................................116 12.2 Suitability of Existing/Abandoned Railroad Corridors ...............................................................118 12.3 Regional Connectivity ...............................................................................................................118 12.4 Stations and Land Use..............................................................................................................119 12.5 Maintenance and Storage Facilities..........................................................................................120 12.6 Incremental Upgrade Strategy for High-Speed Rail Corridors..................................................121 13.0 References................................................................................................................................128 Appendix A: Economic Impact Methodology………………………………………………………………….. A-1 EDR Group, Inc. and AECOM ii May 2011 TABLES Table 1: Population of Midwest Metropolitan Areas .....................................................................................7 Table 2: Feeder Routes and Transfers Serving the Chicago Hub..............................................................41 Table 3: Fleet Size Estimate .......................................................................................................................83 Table 4: Rail Travel Times Under Four Speed Regimes ............................................................................85 Table 5: Total Door-to-Door Trip Travel Times by Mode (hours:minutes)..................................................85 Table 6: Ridership Forecast Summary .......................................................................................................89 Table 7: 2030 Ridership Estimates for Chicago-Based High-Speed Rail Travel........................................90 Table 8: Estimated Annual High-Speed Rail Economic Impacts for 2030 Chicago Metropolitan Area......91 Table 9: Sources of Economic Impact (by 2030)........................................................................................92 Table 10: Station Area Development Employment Effects.........................................................................93 Table 11: Visitor Spending Effects by 2030 (in millions).............................................................................95 Table 12: Typical Unit Costs .......................................................................................................................97 Table 13: Systemwide Cost Summary (220-mph) ......................................................................................98 Table 14: Corridor Cost - Chicago to Minneapolis/St. Paul (220-mph) ......................................................99