ISSN 2070-7010 FAO 660 FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE TECHNICAL PAPER 660 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on fisheries and aquaculture El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on fisheries and aquaculture This FAO Technical Paper synthesizes current knowledge on the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on fisheries and aquaculture in the context of a changing climate. Fisheries and aquaculture are essential parts of the global food system. The recent discovery that ENSO is far more diverse than previously recognized highlights a pressing need to synthesize the impact of the different ENSO types on fisheries and aquaculture. The overall aim of this Technical Paper is to provide relevant, up-to-date information and help decision-makers identify the most appropriate interventions according to the diversity of ENSO types. In addition, the possible effects of climate change on these sectors can be partly illustrated by the current effects of ENSO events, which are themselves affected by climate change. The Technical Paper describes the diversity of ENSO events (Chapter 2), ENSO forecasting (Chapter 3) and ENSO in the context of climate change (Chapter 4). It includes a global overview and regional assessment of ENSO impact (Chapters 5 and 6) and a focus on coral bleaching and damage to reefs and related fisheries (Chapter 7). Finally, it synthesizes the lessons learned and the perspectives for ENSO and preparedness in a warmer ocean (Chapter 10). ISBN 978-92-5-132327-4 ISSN 2070-7010 F Institut de Recherche AO 9 789251 323274 pour le Développement CA8348EN/1/04.20 FRANCE French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development Cover graphic: Francesco Leonini, CoroConsulting FAO FISHERIES AND El Niño Southern Oscillation AQUACULTURE TECHNICAL (ENSO) effects on fisheries PAPER and aquaculture 660 by Arnaud Bertrand Senior scientist Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) MARBEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD Sète, France Matthieu Lengaigne Senior scientist IRD Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06) – CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IPSL Paris, France Ken Takahashi Executive president Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (SENAMHI) Lima, Peru Angel Avadí Researcher Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD) UPR Recyclage et risque, Université de Montpellier Montpellier, France Florence Poulain Fisheries and aquaculture officer FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy and Chris Harrod Professor Instituto de Ciencias Naturales Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile and Núcleo Milenio INVASAL Concepción, Chile FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2020 Bertrand, A., Lengaigne, M., Takahashi, K., Avadí, A., Poulain, F. & Harrod, C. 2020. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on fisheries and aquaculture. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 660. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/ca8348en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. 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Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: [email protected]. iii Preparation of this document Climate variability related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects many sectors such as agriculture, water and aquatic resources. In 2016, the Emergency and Rehabilitation Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) requested the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department to investigate further the impacts of ENSO on the fisheries and aquaculture sector and to suggest (disaster) planning strategies and mitigation measures. A first paper was prepared by Mr Neil Handisyde, followed by this Technical Paper prepared by the present authors, with contributions from, and under the overall direction of Manuel Barange and Florence Poulain (FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department), with the aim to synthesize current knowledge on the impact of the variety of ENSO events on fisheries and aquaculture in the context of a changing climate, and to identify existing and recommended coping and adaptation strategies. This Technical Paper was edited by Claire Ward and laid out by Wendy Worrall (Fishmedia, South Africa). Thanks are also due to Marianne Guyonnet (FAO) for her role in preparing the document for publication. iv Abstract The survival of pre-industrial societies was tightly connected to climatic variation. The prominent global driver of year-to-year variation in the climate system is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale phenomenon involving a coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. The El Niño phenomenon was first recognized by South American fishers during the 1600s and was described as an unusual, warm ocean current off the coast of Peru. During strong El Niño events, tropical species arrive from the north while native fish species either migrate southwards or collapse, the most famous case being that of the Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta, populations of which typically collapse during these events. Seabirds and mammals along the Peruvian coast that largely depend on anchoveta for their food, as well as those occurring on the nearby Galapagos Islands, can also decline dramatically. The unusually warm water also causes heavy rain that can result in the coastal desert undergoing a floral bloom, while also being destructive to crops, property and infrastructure. In the course of the twentieth century, it was recognized that El Niño was not only a tropical coastal current but a large-scale phenomenon that affects weather patterns across the globe. The last five millennia have witnessed about 20 major El Niño events, which have radically affected the history of many societies in different parts of the world. ENSO impacts on climate, fisheries and aquaculture have recently been the focus of numerous scientific works but also stimulated considerable (and often overly- sensational) media coverage. It should, however, be recognized that no two El Niño events are quite alike and that this diversity results in a variety of ecological as well as institutional and socio-economic responses. The recent discovery that ENSO is far more diverse than previously recognized highlights a pressing need to synthesize the impact of the different ENSO types on fisheries and aquaculture, two key components of the global food supply system. In addition, the possible effects of climate change on these sectors can be partly illustrated