Modeling Technology LPS Policy LABORATORY FOR PORT SECURITY RISK ANALYSIS OF TRANSIT VESSEL TRAFFIC IN THE STRAIT OF ISTANBUL1 Özgecan S. Ulusçu (a), Birnur Özbaş (b), Tayfur Altıok (c), İlhan Or (d) (a) Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Laboratory for Port Security, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA, [email protected] (b) Boğaziçi University, Department of Industrial Engineering, 34342, Bebek, Istanbul, TURKEY, [email protected] (c) Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Laboratory for Port Security, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA, [email protected] (d) Boğaziçi University, Department of Industrial Engineering 34342 Bebek, Istanbul, TURKEY, [email protected] April 2008 Acknowledgement: Throughout this study, we have received sincere collaboration from the Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic Services (VTS), Turkish Ministry of Transportation Directorate General of Coastal Safety, Turkish Undersecretariat for Maritime Affairs, Turkish Maritime Pilots’ Association, private industry, Istanbul Technical University Faculty of Maritime, Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Turkish Navy Office of Navigation, Hydrography and Oceanography, for which we are utmost thankful. We are also thankful to Prof. Johan René van Dorp of George Washington University for his valuable suggestions in this study. 1 This work is in part funded by the Laboratory for Port Security at Rutgers University, NSF Grant Number INT-0423262, and TUBITAK, The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey through the Research Project 104Y207 and BAP (Scientific Research Projects Fund of Bogazici University) through the Research Project 07M104. This electronic report is provided for noncommercial use only. Permission is required from authors to copy, reproduce, or reuse in another form. ABSTRACT The Strait of Istanbul, the narrow waterway separating Europe from Asia, holds a strategic importance in maritime transportation as it links the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It is considered one of the world’s most dangerous waterways to navigate. Over 50,000 transit vessels pass through the Strait annually, 20% of which carry dangerous cargo. In this research, we have developed a mathematical risk analysis model to analyze the risks involved in the transit vessel traffic system in the Strait of Istanbul. In the first step of the risk analysis, the transit vessel traffic system is analyzed and a simulation model is developed to mimic and study the system behavior. In addition to vessel traffic and geographical conditions, the current vessel scheduling practices are modeled using a scheduling algorithm. This algorithm is developed through discussions with the Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) to mimic their decisions on sequencing vessel entrances as well as coordinating vessel traffic in both directions. Furthermore, a scenario analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of several parameters on the system performance. Risk analysis is performed by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model. A mathematical model is developed based on probabilistic arguments and historical data and subject matter expert opinions. We have also performed a scenario analysis to evaluate the characteristics of the accident risk. This analysis allows us to investigate how various factors impact risk. These factors include vessel arrivals, scheduling policies, pilotage, overtaking, and local traffic density. Policy indications are made based on results. ii Table of Contents ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................................ii List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................iv List of Illustrations...........................................................................................................................v 1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................1 2 Risk Analysis of the Transit Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul.......................................7 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Background Information .............................................................................................. 14 2.3 Literature Review on Maritime Risk Analysis............................................................. 17 2.4 Modeling Risk .............................................................................................................. 25 2.4.1 Framework .........................................................................................................25 2.4.2 A Mathematical Risk Model..............................................................................26 2.4.3 Methodology......................................................................................................34 2.4.3.1 First Tier Accident Probability ......................................................................34 2.4.3.1.1 Probability of a 1st Tier Accident given an Instigator and a situation .......34 2.4.3.1.2 Probability of an ınstıgator given a situation.............................................43 2.4.3.1.3 Probability of a situation ...........................................................................45 2.4.3.1.4 Calibration.................................................................................................46 2.4.3.2 Second Tier Accident Probability ..................................................................49 2.4.3.3 Expected Consequence given an accident......................................................50 2.4.3.3.1 Probability of a Consequence given an Accident......................................50 2.4.3.3.2 Consequence..............................................................................................56 2.4.3.3.3 Probability of a Situation...........................................................................56 2.4.3.4 Questionnaire Design.....................................................................................57 2.4.4 Numerical Results..............................................................................................58 2.4.4.1 Impact of Arrival Rates..................................................................................58 2.4.4.2 Impact of Scheduling Policies........................................................................64 2.4.4.2.1 Scheduling more Vessels...........................................................................64 2.4.4.2.2 Scheduling Fewer Vessels.........................................................................73 2.4.4.3 Impact of Other Factors .................................................................................82 3 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................90 References......................................................................................................................................93 Appendix A: Scale Values of Situational Attributes Influencing Accident Occurrence .............103 Appendix B: Regression Results of the Accident Probability Questionnaires ............................107 Appendix C: Regression Results of the Human Error Probability Questionnaire .......................121 Appendix D: Regression Results For Consequence Questionnaires............................................122 iii List of Tables Table 2-1 List of scenarios..............................................................................................................7 Table 2-2 List of scenarios with Cumulative Probability................................................................8 Table 2-3 Vessel types in the Strait of Istanbul.............................................................................29 Table 2-4 Causal relationship between 1st and 2nd tier accident types ..........................................31 Table 2-5 Set of accident consequences........................................................................................32 Table 2-6 Set of instigators that may cause an accident................................................................33 Table 2-7 Possible values of situational attributes influencing accident occurrence S1 ................36 st nd Table 2-8 Possible values for 1 and 2 Interacting Vessel Class ( X1 , X 2 )...............................37 Table 2-9 List of zones..................................................................................................................38 Table 2-10 Interaction attributes ...................................................................................................40 Table 2-11 Pr (1st tier Accident, Instigator) obtained from accident data .....................................47 Table 2-12 Calibration expressions for joint accident probabilities..............................................48 Table 2-13 Values for Pr (2nd tier Accident|1st tier Accident) .......................................................49 Table 2-14 Possible values of situational attributes influencing consequence impact S2..............50 Table 2-15 Pr (Human Casualty|Accident) obtained from accident data......................................53 Table 2-16 Pr (Property/Infrastructure Damage|Accident)