Acknowledgements: The author is extremely grateful to the following members of the Environmental Action Forum of the Bermuda National Trust for their advice, support, input and critique of this report; Mr. Julian Cusack, Ms. Jennifer Gray, Mr. William Holmes, Dr. David Wingate and Mrs. Vivienne Lockheed. Ms. Penny Hill kindly proofed the document. Ms. Mandy Shailer, GIS Coordinator for the Department of Conservation Services kindly provided all of the GIS sea level projections, whilst Mr. Jack Ward, Director of Conservation Services provided extremely helpful guidance and support. Various experts provided extremely helpful insights into specific sections of this report. They are; Dr. Jennifer Attride-Stirling, Dr. Jamie Bacon, Dr. Steve Blasco, Mr. Peter Drew, Dr. Mark Guishard, Mr. Jeremy Madeiros, Mr. Mark Outerbridge, Dr. Joanna Pitt, Dr. Philippe Rouja, Mr. Mark Rowe, Dr. Samia Sarkis, Dr. Edward Schultz, Mr. Tommy Sinclair, Dr. Martin Thomas and Dr. Tammy Trott. The Bermuda National Trust kindly sponsored this report with the support of Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited. Disclaimer: The author is responsible for the choice and the presentation of the facts contained in this publication and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of the Bermuda National Trust and do not commit the organisation. This report should be referenced as: Glasspool, A. F., 2008. The Impact of Climate Change on Bermuda. Report Prepared for the Bermuda National Trust. pp. 190 Copyright All photographs and figures are copyright of the author except where otherwise credited. Cover Photographs: Left: Jeremy Madeiros, Jennifer Gray. Right: Ian Macdonald-Smith 2 Table of Contents List of boxes, figures, tables, photographs and maps…...................................................... 7 Executive Summary............................................................................................................ 11 1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 14 The Aim of this Report …………...………………………………………………………….. 17 Bibliography………………...……...………………………………………………………….. 18 2. What is Global Climate Change?.................................................................................. 20 Summary........................................................................................................................ 20 2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 21 2.2 What is causing climate change?............................................................................ 21 2.3 Global Climate Trends ………………………………………………………………….. 22 2.3.1 Our Warming Planet ……………………………………………………………… 24 2.3.2 The Effects of Rising Temperatures ……………………………………………. 25 2.4 The Impacts of Climate Change …………………………………………….…………. 28 2.5 Global Climate Projections ……………………………………………………………… 30 2.6 Bibliography ………………………………………………………………...……………. 35 3. Climate in Bermuda ………………………………………………………………………….. 37 Summary…………………………………………………………………..…………………... 37 3.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………. 38 3.2 Impact of Climate Change on Bermuda’s Climate …………………………………… 40 3.3 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ………………………………………………….. 43 3.4 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………… 43 3.5 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………… 43 4. Sea Level Rise in Bermuda ………………………………………………………………… 45 Summary…………………………………………….………………………………………… 45 4.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………………………………. 46 4.2 Impact of Climate Change on Sea Level …………………………………………….. 48 4.3 Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………….. 53 4.4 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………… 53 5. Impact of Climate Change on our Infrastructure ………………………………………. 55 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 55 5.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………… 56 5.2 Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure ……….…………………………………. 60 5.3 Impact of Infrastructure on GHG Emissions …………………………………………. 68 3 5.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures …………………………………………………. 68 5.5 Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………….. 70 5.6 Bibliography …………………………………………………………………………….. 70 6. Impact of Climate Change on Freshwater Resources …………………………………. 71 Summary …………………………………………………………………………………….. 71 6.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………. 72 6.2 Impact of Climate Change on Freshwater ……….………………………………….. 73 6.3 Impact of Infrastructure on GHG Emissions …………………………………………. 75 6.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures …………………………………………………. 75 6.5 Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………….. 76 6.6 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………… 76 7. Impact of Climate Change on Energy …………………………………………………….. 78 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 78 7.1 Introduction …………………………..………………………………………………….. 79 7.2 Impact of Climate Change on Energy……….……………………………….…….…. 79 7.3 Impact of Energy on GHG Emissions ……………………………………….……….. 82 7.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures …………………………………………………. 83 7.5 Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………….. 83 7.6 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………… 84 8. Impact of Climate Change on Human Health …………………………………………… 85 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 85 8.1 Introduction …………………………..……………………………………………………86 8.2 Impact of Climate Change on Human Health ……….………………………………. 86 8.3 Impact of Human Health on GHG Emissions ………………………………………… 91 8.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures …………………………………………………. 91 8.5 Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………….. 92 8.6 Bibliography …………………………………………………………………………….. 92 9. Impact of Climate Change on Tourism ……………………………………………..…… 93 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………. 93 9.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………. 94 9.2 Impact of Climate Change on Tourism ……….……………………………………… 94 9.3 Impact of Tourism on GHG Emissions ………………………………………………. 97 9.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures …………………………………………………. 98 9.5 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………… 98 10. Impact of Climate Change on our Built Heritage……………………………………… 100 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 100 10.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………. 101 4 10.2 Impact of Climate Change on Built Heritage ……….………………………………. 102 10.3 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ………………………………………………… 104 10.4 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………. 105 11. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture ……………………………………………… 106 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 106 11.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………. 107 11.2 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture ……….………………………………….. 108 11.3 Impact of Agriculture on GHG Emissions …………………………………………… 111 11.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ………………………………………………… 112 11.5 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………. 114 11.6 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………. 115 12. Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries ……………………………………………..…. 116 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 116 12.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………. 117 12.2 Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries ……….……………………………………. 118 12.3 Impact of Fisheries on GHG Emissions ……………………………………………. 123 12.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ……………………………………………….. 123 12.5 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………. 124 12.6 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………. 124 13. Impact of Climate Change on Mangroves ……………………………………………… 125 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 125 13.1 Introduction …………………………..……………………………………………….. 126 13.2 Impact of Climate Change on Mangroves ……….…………………………………. 127 13.3 Impact of Mangroves on GHG Emissions ………………………………………….. 131 13.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ………………………………………………… 132 13.5 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………. 133 13.6 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………. 133 14. Impact of Climate Change on Seagrasses …………………………………………….. 135 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 135 14.1 Introduction …………………………..…………………………………………………. 136 14.2 Impact of Climate Change on Seagrasses ……….………………………………… 137 14.3 Impact of Seagrasses on GHG Emissions …………………………………………. 140 14.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ………………………………………………… 140 14.5 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………. 143 14.6 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………. 143 15. Impact of Climate Change on Reefs……………………………………………..……… 145 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………. 145 5 15.1 Introduction …………………………..………………………………………………… 146 15.2 Impact of Climate Change on Reefs ……….…………………………..…………… 148 15.3 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ……………………………………………….. 153 15.4 Acknowledgements …………………………………………………………………… 154 15.5 Bibliography …………………………………………………………………………… 154 16. Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Habitats……………………………………….. 156 Summary ……………………………………………………………………………………… 156 16.1 Introduction …………………………..………………………………………………… 157 16.2 Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Habitats……….…………………………… 159 16.3 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ………………………………………………… 164 16.4 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………. 165 16.5 Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………. 165 17. Impact of Climate Change on Plants……………………………………………..…….. 166 Summary …………………………………………………………………………………….. 166 17.1 Introduction …………………………..………………………………………………… 167 17.2 Impact of Climate Change on Plants ……….………………………………………. 167 17.3 Impact of Plants on GHG Emissions ………………………………………………… 173 17.4 Mitigation and Adaptation Measures …………………………………………………. 174 17.5 Acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………. 175 17.6 Bibliography …………………………………………………………………………… 175 18. Impact of Climate Change on Birds……………………………………………..……… 177 Summary