HEALTHY WATERSHEDS FOREST RETENTION PROJECT PHASES 1 & 2 FINAL REPORT A Virginia and Pennsylvania partnership focused on expanding the use of forestland to meet Chesapeake Bay Watershed goals from the perspective of the local leaders who are responsible for making it happen. Prepared for: The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership Healthy Watersheds Goal Implementation Team, Land Use Workgroup and Forestry Workgroup The Local Government Advisory Committee to the Chesapeake Bay Executive Council The US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office The Commonwealths of Virginia and Pennsylvania The Rappahannock River Basin Commission The George Washington Regional Commission The Chesapeake Bay Commission The Nature Conservancy The Chesapeake Bay Trust The US Endowment for Forests and Communities The Virginia Environmental Endowment June 30, 2017 HEALTHY WATERS/FOREST RETENTION STUDY FINAL REPORT: JUNE 30, 2017 1 Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................................... 6 LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................... 8 BACKGROUND LEADING TO PROJECT ........................................................................................................10 CORRELATION WITH 2014 CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED AGREEMENT STATED GOALS AND OUTCOMES ................................ 12 PROJECT DESIGN ............................................................................................................................................... 13 PHASE II ...........................................................................................................................................14 PROJECT DESIGN ............................................................................................................................................... 14 STUDY AREAS ................................................................................................................................................... 15 VIRGINIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 15 PENNSYLVANIA ................................................................................................................................................. 15 FOREST RETENTION MODELING METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS .....................................................16 VIRGINIA (PHASE I) ............................................................................................................................................ 16 PENNSYLVANIA (PHASE II) ................................................................................................................................... 17 FORECASTING LAND COVER CHANGE: 2010 – 2025 .................................................................................................. 18 VIRGINIA (PHASE I) ............................................................................................................................................ 18 CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG .............................................................................................................................. ................. 19 GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR CURRENT LAND COVER FOR COUNTY AREAS ............................................................................. 19 UNIQUE METHODS OR ASSUMPTIONS BY COUNTY .............................................................................................................. 20 SUPPORTING DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................................. 21 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR PD 16 AND RAPPAHANNOCK WATERSHED AREA ................................................................ 22 PENNSYLVANIA (PHASE II) ................................................................................................................................... 24 POPULATION TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE YBC WATERSHED ................................................................................ 24 LAND COVER CONVERSION TRENDS, 2001-2011 ....................................................................................................... 25 DIFFERENTIAL CONVERSION TRENDS IN URBAN AND RURAL MUNICIPALITIES OF THE WATERSHED ............................................ 26 SCENARIO MODELING ......................................................................................................................29 VIRGINIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 PENNSYLVANIA ................................................................................................................................................. 29 SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONS ................................................................................................................30 VIRGINIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 SCENARIO (A) 2025: MODIFIED 5.3.2 BAY MODEL ............................................................................................................ 30 SCENARIO (B) 2025: COMMUNITY PLANS BUILD-OUT ......................................................................................................... 31 SCENARIO (C) 2025: GREENPRINT/FOREST RETENTION ....................................................................................................... 31 SCENARIO (D) 2025: PHASED DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ON COMMUNITY PLANS BUILD-OUT ........................................................ 32 PENNSYLVANIA ................................................................................................................................................. 32 SCENARIO (A) 2025: MODIFIED 5.3.2 BAY MODEL ............................................................................................................ 32 HEALTHY WATERS/FOREST RETENTION STUDY FINAL REPORT: JUNE 30, 2017 2 SCENARIO (B) 2025: FOREST RETENTION .......................................................................................................................... 33 SCENARIO (C) 2025: URBAN FOREST RETENTION SCENARIO ................................................................................................. 35 SCENARIO (D) 2025: RURAL RIPARIAN BUFFER RESTORATION SCENARIO ................................................................................ 35 SCENARIO RESULTS ..........................................................................................................................36 PHASE II ENGAGEMENT/DISCOVERY OBJECTIVES .............................................................................38 PHASE II APPROACH .............................................................................................................................. ............. 38 VIRGINIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 38 PENNSYLVANIA .............................................................................................................................. ............................... 39 ORGANIZING AND SEEKING STAKEHOLDER INPUT....................................................................................................... 39 VIRGINIA ......................................................................................................................................................... 39 PENNSYLVANIA .................................................................................................................................................. 41 OPEN SPACE & FOREST RETENTION TOOLS IN VA AND PA ................................................................42 A. TAX AND FISCAL POLICY TOOLS ..................................................................................................................... 43 B. ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING AND REGULATION TOOLS ....................................................................................... 48 C. LAND USE AND ZONING POLICIES .................................................................................................................. 60 D. VOLUNTARY LANDOWNER ACTIONS ............................................................................................................... 74 E. LAND & DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS ACQUISITION .................................................................................................. 80 F. FOREST RETENTION TOOLS: ENHANCEMENT OPPORTUNITIES ............................................................................... 85 1. CONSERVATION EASEMENT TAX CREDIT POLICY ............................................................................................ 85 2. CONSIDERATION OF TERM CONSERVATION EASEMENTS ................................................................................... 85 3. RECOGNITION OF RESOURCE PROTECTION AREA RESTRICTIONS ......................................................................... 86 4. MULTI-YEAR APPLICATION OF LAND USE VALUATION TAXATION ............................................................................