Construction Overweight (Maintain) Government moves quickly to stabilize housing market; Tougher regulations could be introduced Government unveils 21 st round of housing market stabilization measures Issue Comment Broad aim is to cool down market by curbing speculative demand and regulating real June 18, 2020 estate development and reconstruction projects Latest measures have come earlier than expected; Tougher regulations could be introduced if the market fails to stabilize as quickly as anticipated Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Construction/Building Materials ] Government unveils measures to stabilize housing market Kwangsoo Lee th +822 -3774 -1457 On June 17 , the Korean government unveiled a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the [email protected] housing market. The government is looking to cool down the market by tightening Junghan Yoon regulations on speculative demand (which has been behind short-term price increases) and +822 -3774 -1371 tempering expectations on real estate development and reconstruction projects. The [email protected] government announced the latest measures earlier than the market had anticipated, which suggests that it is trying to respond more swiftly to market changes. 1. Tighter regulations on speculative demand to help stabilize prices in overheated areas To curb speculative demand in unregulated areas, the government will designate most of the Seoul metropolitan area, Daejeon, and Cheongju as adjustment target areas and overheated speculative zones. More specifically, Seongnam (Sujeong district), Suwon, Anyang, Ansan (Danwon district), Guri, Gunpo, Uiwang, Yongin (Suji district), Giheung, Hwaseong, Incheon, and Daejeon will be designated as overheated speculative zones subject to tighter borrowing regulations. In addition, anyone who takes out a mortgage to purchase a home in regulated areas will be subject to stricter move-in and selling requirements, while anyone who buys an apartment worth more than W300mn in speculative areas or overheated speculative zones after getting a jeonse loan will have to immediately repay that loan. Corporations, which have been flagged as a major source of speculative demand, will also face stricter regulations. Corporations that buy/sell or rent homes in all areas will no longer be eligible for mortgages. The maximum comprehensive real estate tax rates of 3-4% will also be applied to homes owned by corporations. In addition, real estate tax deductions (W600mn) on corporate-owned homes will be eliminated, the additional capital gains tax rate when selling homes will be raised to 20%, and investigations into corporate transactions will be strengthened. Housing prices have recently shot up in unregulated areas where borrowing is unrestricted and in areas where corporate demand has been rising. We believe the expansion of overheated speculative zones and tougher loan regulations will dampen investor demand. 2. Regulations on real estate development and reconstruction projects could lead to fewer transactions Plans related to a new development (known as “Seoul International District”) in Songpa and Gangnam have sparked some market unease. In response, the government and the Seoul metropolitan government will require approval to buy or sell land in the nearby areas of Jamsil, Samseong, Cheongdam, and Daechi (total of 14.4km 2). The purchase of land (or units, in the case of housing) causing ownership area to exceed a specified threshold will require approval from the relevant district office. Buyers of residential land must use the property for actual residential purposes for two years and will be prohibited from selling or leasing the property during that period. Any land transactions that are not preapproved will be punishable by imprisonment for up to two years or a fine of up to 30% of the land price. June 18, 2020 Construction The government also plans to improve the transparency and fairness of reconstruction project safety assessments. Previously, landowners were eligible to become reconstruction union members regardless of their actual residency. Going forward, for reconstruction projects in overheated speculative zones in the metropolitan area, only those who have resided in the relevant property for at least two years prior to applying for union member presale rights will be allowed to apply. Reconstruction charges (which have been ruled constitutional) will also be collected from 2H20. We believe the introduction of the land transaction approval scheme and stricter reconstruction regulations will inevitably lead to fewer housing transactions, especially in the Gangnam district. This suggests that market uncertainties are likely to increase. With policy uncertainties rising, aggressive investing is best avoided The government announced the latest measures earlier than the market had anticipated, which likely reflects the government’s strong determination to respond swiftly to market changes. While the market impact of the new policies is indeed important, we think the government’s increasing commitment to stabilize the property market is even more significant. In the past, opposition from lawmakers had often caused market stabilization measures to be delayed, watered down, or abandoned. But with the ruling party now controlling the majority of the National Assembly, the government has significant leverage to push through its policies. Despite protests from the opposition party, Yun Ho-jung of the ruling Democratic Party was recently elected as chairman of the Legislation and Judiciary Committee after winning 185 votes. In our view, the changing dynamics of the legislature have significant implications for the direction of real estate policies. Surging apartment prices have made both investors and real buyers anxious. The fear of missing out on rising prices has fueled purchases of expensive homes, as well as apartments that have risen sharply in price. The emergence of speculative buying by real estate corporations has caused further distortion in the market. However, we believe now is the time to take a level-headed look at the Korean property market. The government is continuing to strengthen regulations, while macro uncertainties are rising. In our view, real estate is no longer a safe-haven asset. We think it is important to avoid aggressive speculation and instead be more mindful of changes taking place in the market. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 June 18, 2020 Construction Figure 1. Apartment real transaction price chg. tre nds (MoM) (%) 6 Nationwide Seoul Gyeonggi Real estate regulations announced immediately 5 after signs of a rebound emerged 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 5/17 9/17 1/18 5/18 9/18 1/19 5/19 9/19 1/20 5/20 Source: MOLIT, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. Apartment transaction volume by region (No. of transactions) Significant transaction volume growth in 100,000 Nationwide areas not subject to stricter loan regulations points to increased speculation 90,000 Seoul Gyeonggi 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 5/17 9/17 1/18 5/18 9/18 1/19 5/19 9/19 1/20 5/20 Source: MOLIT, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 June 18, 2020 Construction Table 1. Housing market stabilization measures announced on June 17 th Key agenda Measures Details Designate adjustment target areas and Gyeonggi, Incheon, Daejeon , and Cheongju will be added to list of adjustment target overheated speculative zones areas and overheated speculative zones . Require land transaction approval for Anyone seeking to buy land over a certain size in major development areas must gain major development areas approval from the local district office . Random and regular investigations will be conducted to uncover illegal transfers, loan violations, and false transaction reports, which will be subject to fines and reported to the NTS and FSC . Strengthen investigation into speculative Housing transactions in adjustment target areas or overheated speculative zones will housing demand be required to submit a financing plan, regardless of the transaction value . Housing transaction reports in overheated speculative zones will be required to submit proof of documents for each component of the financing plan, regardless of the transaction value . Prevent speculative demand in Anyone who takes out a mortgage to purchase a home in regulated areas will be overheated areas required to move into the property within six months, regardless of price (first-time buyers) . Anyone who takes out a mortgage to purchase a home in regulated areas will be required to sell his/her existing home and move into the newly purchased property within six months , regardless of price (single home owners) . Tighten regulations on mortgages and Anyone who takes out a Bogeumjari loan to purchase a home will be required to jeonse loans move into the property within three months and maintain residency there for at least a year. In case of violation, the loan will be canceled. Anyone who purchases an apartment worth more than W300mn in spec ulative areas or overheated speculative districts will not be eligible for jeonse loan guarantees . The maximum jeonse loan guarantee provided by the Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG) will be lowered to W200mn for single home owners . Agency responsible for selecting organizations conducting initial safety assessment s and commissioning secondary safety assessments will be changed from the city/county/district governments to the city/provincial governments. Inadequate safety assessment reporting will