UNCONTROLLED RE-ENTRIES OF MASSIVE SPACE OBJECTS 4th International Space Debris Re-entry Workshop ESA/ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany, 28 February – 1 March 2018 Outline • Uncontrolled re-entries of massive space objects during the last decade • The uncontrolled re-entry of the Zenit second stage 2017-086D • Status and decay time evolution of the Chinese space station Tiangong-1 Premise Space hardware re-entries can be of two types CONTROLLED if the time of re-entry is controlled and the impact of debris is confined to a designated zone UNCONTROLLED if the time of re-entry and ground zone of impact are not controlled To characterize in a synthetic way the relevance of uncontrolled re-entries, a re-entry magnitude ΜR was defined at ISTI-CNR as follows ΜR = log10 [(dry mass of re-entering object in kg) / 100] + 0.3 ISTI-CNR uncontrolled re-entry magnitude scale definition Dry Mass M0 of the Re-entry re-entering object [kg] magnitude MR M0 ≤ 50 MR < 0 50 < M0 ≤ 500 0 ≤ MR < 1 500 < M0 ≤ 5000 1 ≤ MR < 2 5000 < M0 ≤ 50 000 2 ≤ MR < 3 50 000 < M0 ≤ 500 000 3 ≤ MR < 4 500 000 < M0 ≤ 5 000 000 4 ≤ MR < 5 Sources of data Orbit of re-entered objects: US Space-Track Organization (www.space-track.org) Mass of re-entered objects: ESA’s DISCOS Database (discosweb.esoc.esa.int); Gunter’s Space Page (space.skyrocket.de); Spaceflight101 (spaceflight101.com) Relevance of uncontrolled re-entries [2008 – 2017] Large (RCS > 1 m²) catalogued intact objects re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere during the last decade [2008 – 2017] . 366 rocket bodies (mass between ∼50 kg and ∼9 300 kg, 42 with mass < 500 kg) . 82 spacecraft (mass between ∼57 kg and ∼13 525 kg – launch mass including propellants, 14 with mass < 500 kg) −3 Ec ∼ 10 0 ≤ MR < 1 55 (12%) objects 2 ≤ MR < 3 −4 16 (4%) objects Ec ∼ 10 −4 Ec < 10 1 ≤ MR < 2 376 (84%) objects MR < 0 MR M0 Space Object 1 object [kg] 2.268 9300 SL-16 (2011-065B) 2.268 9300 SL-23 (2011-001C) 2.268 9300 SL-23 (2011-037D) Dry mass M0 of the Re-entry All intact Spacecraft Rocket 2.268 9300 SL-23 (2015-074C) 2.078 6100 DRAGON/FALCON9 (2010-026A) re-entering object [kg] magnitude MR objects bodies 2.078 6000 CZ-7 (2016-042E) 2.072 6000 CZ-7 (2017-021B) M0 ≤ 50 MR < 0 1 0 1 2.085 5916 PROGRESS-M 27M (2015-024A) 2.053 5668 UARS (1991-063B) 50 < M0 ≤ 500 0 ≤ MR < 1 55 (12%) 14 (17%) 41 (11%) 2.041 5502 CZ-2F (2008-047B) 2.041 5502 CZ-2F (2011-053B) 500 < M0 ≤ 5000 1 ≤ MR < 2 376 (84%) 66 (80.5%) 310 (85%) 2.041 5502 CZ-2F (2011-063B) 2.041 5502 CZ-2F (2012-032B) 5000 < M0 ≤ 9300 2 ≤ MR < 3 16 (4%) 2 (2.5%) 14 (4%) 2.04 5500 CZ-2F (2013-029B) 2.04 5500 CZ-2F (2016-057B) All re-entered intact objects 448 82 366 2.04 5500 CZ-2F (2016-061B) Re-entry frequency [2008-2017] Large catalogued intact objects with mass > 500 kg re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere between 2008 and 2017 . 324 rocket bodies (∼88% of large re-entered rocket bodies) . 68 spacecraft (∼83% of large re-entered spacecraft) R/B SC R/B+SC Mass > 500 kg 60 Average re-entries 48 50 44 45 per year 41 40 39 40 36 36 36 entered entered 40 . 32 rocket bodies - 34 32 34 33 34 34 30 28 28 . 7 spacecraft 30 24 . 39 intact objects 20 12 8 9 7 8 ∼1 intact object 10 4 4 4 6 6 Number of re every 1-2 weeks objects with mass > 500 kg > 500 mass with objects 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Observed solar flux F10.7 between January 2008 and January 2018 Re-entry frequency [2008-2017] Large catalogued intact objects with mass ≥ 3900 kg re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere between 2008 and 2017 . 40 rocket bodies (∼11% of large re-entered rocket bodies) . 4 spacecraft (∼5% of large re-entered spacecraft – For Phobos-Grunt the propellant mass is included) Mass ≥ 3900 kg R/B SC R/B+SC 10 9 9 Average re-entries per 8 7 year 6 6 6 entered - 6 5 5 5 . 4 rocket bodies 4 . < 1 spacecraft 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3900 kg . 4-5 intact objects 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 objects with mass > mass with objects 0 Number of re 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Space object INTLDES Re-entry Mass Inc [deg] epoch [kg] CZ-2F R/B 2008-047B 17/10/2008 5502 42.39 Large catalogued intact objects with mass > 5000 kg DRAGON/FALCON 9 2010-026A 27/06/2010 6100 34.48 . ∼ SL-23 R/B 2011-001C 19/03/2011 9300 51.39 14 rocket bodies ( 4% of large re-entered rocket bodies) SL-23 R/B 2011-037D 08/08/2011 9300 51.38 . 3 spacecraft (∼4% of large re-entered spacecraft) UARS 1991-063B 24/09/2011 5668 60.35 CZ-2F R/B* 2011-053B 10/10/2011 5500 42.78 . 1-2 intact objects per year CZ-2F R/B 2011-063B 08/11/2011 5502 42.77 SC R/B R/B+SC SL-16 R/B 2011-065B 22/11/2011 9300 51.42 8 PHOBOS-GRUNT 2011-065A 15/01/2012 13525 61.73 Mass > 5000 kg CZ-2F R/B 2012-032B 42.77 6 26/01/2012 5502 entered entered CZ-2F R/B 2013-029B 21/06/2013 5502 42.77 - 6 5 PROGRESS-M 27M 2015-024A 08/05/2015 7289 64.76 4 4 SL-23 R/B 2015-074C 02/01/2016 9300 51.36 4 CZ-7 R/B 2016-042E 28/07/2016 6000 40.79 5000 kg 2 CZ-2F R/B* 2016-057B 29/09/2016 5500 42.78 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CZ-2F R/B 2016-061B 04/11/2016 5500 42.77 CZ-7 R/B 2017-021B 18/05/2017 6000 42.76 > objects with mass Number of re 0 * Used to launch Tiangong-1 * Used to launch Tiangong-2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Re-entered mass [2008-2017] SC R/B R/B+SC 140000 121880 111967 120000 107955 102895 102471 99777 100000 89081 86542 89993 68725 72407 61721 79620 71691 80000 66942 70194 60585 64075 61195 60000 52812 Mass > 500 kg entered mass [kg] - 40000 18985 22851 22139 21413 19799 Re 20000 8140 8332 8909 12190 10496 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 R/B SC LARGE LARGE LARGE 50000 M > 50 kg M > 500 kg M > 5000 kg 38902 1 SL-16, 2 SL-23, 2 CZ-2F No. Mass No. Mass [kg] No. Mass 40000 [kg] [kg] 30000 Phobos-Grunt 26300 Rocket 366 754 142 324 744 637 14 93 808 bodies (83%) (83%) (78%) UARS Progress-M 27M 20000 Spacecraft 82 157 098 68 153 254 3 26 482 entered mass [kg] 13525 - (17%) (17%) (22%) 7289 Re 10000 5502 6100 5668 5502 5502 6000 Intact 448 911 240 392 897 891 17 120 290 0 objects 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mass > 5000 kg Orbital inclination of intact objects re-entered between 2008 and 2017 120 392 intact objects 100 with mass > 500 kg 80 60 40 Orbital inclination [deg] inclination Orbital 20 0 UARS JB-3 B ROSAT SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-8 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-3 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-8 R/B SL-4 R/B GSLV R/B SL-26 R/B SL-26 SL-23 R/B SL-23 CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F CZ-3C R/B CZ-3C R/B CZ-2C R/B CZ-3B R/B CZ-3B R/B CZ-3B CZ-4B R/B CZ-4B R/B CZ-4B CZ-4B R/B CZ-4B CZ-3A R/B CZ-3A R/B AVUM R/B SL-6 R/B(1) SL-6 R/B(2) SL-6 R/B(2) SL-6 R/B(2) SL-6 R/B(2) SL-6 SL-12 R/B(1) SL-12 DELTA 4 R/B DELTA 2 R/B DELTA 2 R/B ANTARES R/B ANTARES R/B ARIANE 5 R/B COSMOS 1222 MOLNIYA 3-43 MOLNIYA 1-42 MOLNIYA 1-92 MOLNIYA 3-46 MOLNIYA 3-51 MOLNIYA 1-44 MOLNIYA 3-45 DELTA 2 R/B(1) ARIANE 44L R/B ARIANE 44L R/B PROGRESS-M 27M PROGRESS-M 17 intact objects with mass > 5000 kg ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B ATLAS 3A CENTAUR R/B Mass > 500 kg ATLAS 2AS CENTAUR R/B 65 70 62 60 60 51 51 51 51 > 90° 70 18% 14 20 45 70 50 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 41 80°-90° 29 7% 4% 5% 18% > 90° 40 34 70°-80° 0 0% 11 11% 29 80°-90° 30 60°-70° 76 19% 3% 7% 20 50°-60° 108 28% 19 0 70°-80° 10 40°-50° 19 5% 5% 0% 60°-70° Orbital inclination [deg] 0 30°-40° 11 3% 50°-60° UARS 20°-30° 45 11% CZ-7 R/B CZ-7 R/B SL-16 R/BSL-16 R/BSL-23 R/BSL-23 R/BSL-23 CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B 10°-20° 14 4% 40°-50° 108 76 0°-10° 20 5% 28% 19% 30°-40° PHOBOS-GRUNT PROGRESS-M 27M DRAGON/FALCON 9 DRAGON/FALCON Latitude bands overflown [deg] 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 Latitude bands overflown re by bands overflown Latitude DELTA 2 R/B MOLNIYA 3-43 DELTA 2 R/B CZ-4B R/B SL-8 R/B SL-4 R/B CZ-2C R/B CZ-4B R/B SL-4 R/B CZ-4B R/B JB-3 B MOLNIYA 1-44 MOLNIYA 3-45 SL-8 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-3 R/B > 80° > COSMOS 1222 SL-4 R/B24% SL-4 R/B PROGRESS-M 27M > 70° > MOLNIYA 1-42 MOLNIYA 1-9225% SL-6 R/B(1) SL-6 R/B(2) > 60° > SL-6 R/B(2) 45% SL-6 R/B(2) ROSAT SL-6 R/B(2) > 50° > MOLNIYA 3-46 72% UARS CZ-3C R/B > 40° > SL-26 R/B 77% SL-4 R/B - SL-4 R/B objects [2008 entered SL-4 R/B > 30° > SL-4 R/B SL-12 R/B(1) 80% SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B > 20° > SL-4 R/B 91% SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B SL-4 R/B > 10° > SL-4 R/B 95% ANTARES R/B SL-4 R/B ANTARES R/B SL-23 R/B CZ-2F R/B CZ-2F R/B MOLNIYA 3-51 DELTA 2 R/B(1) CZ-3A R/B DELTA 4 R/B with mass >500 kg 392 intactobjects CZ-3B R/B CZ-3B R/B CZ-3A R/B - 2017] ATLAS 3A CENTAUR… ATLAS 2AS CENTAUR… ATLAS 5 CENTAUR R/B GSLV R/B CZ-3C R/B ARIANE 44L R/B ARIANE 44L R/B AVUM R/B ARIANE 5 R/B Sightings [2010-2017] Source: 2010 2011 2012 2013 http://www.aerospace.org 2014 2015 2016 2017 5 1 2 1 34 sightings (27 rocket bodies and 7 spacecraft) 4 out of 373 re-entries of large intact objects (299 6 rocket bodies and 74 spacecraft) between 2010 and 2017: i.e.