A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Bernhardt, Lea; Dewenter, Ralf; Thomas, Tobias Working Paper Watchdog or loyal servant? Political media bias in US newscasts DICE Discussion Paper, No. 348 Provided in Cooperation with: Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) Suggested Citation: Bernhardt, Lea; Dewenter, Ralf; Thomas, Tobias (2020) : Watchdog or loyal servant? Political media bias in US newscasts, DICE Discussion Paper, No. 348, ISBN 978-3-86304-347-6, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Düsseldorf This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/222963 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu NO 348 Watchdog or Loyal Servant? Political Media Bias in US Newscasts Lea Bernhardt Ralf Dewenter Tobias Thomas August 2020 IMPRINT DICE DISCUSSION PAPER Published by: Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Universitätsstraße 1, 40225 Düsseldorf, Germany www.dice.hhu.de Editor: Prof. Dr. Hans-Theo Normann Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) Tel +49 (0) 211-81-15125, E-Mail [email protected] All rights reserved. Düsseldorf, Germany 2020. ISSN 2190-9938 (online) / ISBN 978-3-86304-347-6 The working papers published in the series constitute work in progress circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the authors’ own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the editor. Watchdog or Loyal Servant? Political Media Bias in US Newscasts Lea Bernhardt1, Ralf Dewenter2 & Tobias Thomas3 August 2020 We investigate if four leading, electronic news gathering organizations in the US – ABC News, CBS News, FOX News, and NBC News – fulfill their role as the fourth estate in the US democracy. Our analysis, using the Political Coverage Index (PCI) introduced by Dewenter et al (2020), is based on the tonality of their political coverage using 815,000 human-coded news items from 2001 through 2012. For our econometric analysis, we use panel regressions with media and time fixed effects. To account for endogeneity, we cut time spans around national elections out of our data. In the remaining data, elections can be seen as a purely exogenous event. Focusing on the entire media set, we find robust empirical results for an anti-government bias in media reporting: Under Republican presidents, political coverage tends to be more liberal, whereas it tends to be more conservative if the president is a Democrat. However, when focusing on each single news organization, interesting differences emerge: For CBS News and NBC News, we find robust empirical evidence of anti-government-bias. In contrast, FOX News is always much more critical of Democrats than of Republicans. Hence, FOX News can be seen as a more loyal servant to one party rather than acting as the fourth estate. In addition, we find no evidence that ABC News significantly changes its position depending on the presidency. Although descriptive statistics show a certain tendency toward government-critical reporting by ABC News, the variation is not statistically significant. Keywords: Political Coverage Index, government bias, tonality, media capture, US newscasts JEL: C43, D72, L82 Research Funding: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. 1 Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg, Department of Economics, Germany, [email protected]. 2 Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg, Department of Economics, Germany, [email protected]. 3 Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) at Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Germany, and Centre of Media Data and Society (CMDS) of the Central European University (CEU), Hungary, [email protected] 1 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 3 2. Related Literature .................................................................................................................................................... 5 3. The Political Positioning of the “Big Four” ..................................................................................................... 8 3.1 The Data: Political Media Coverage of ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC News ..................................... 8 3.2 The Political Coverage Index (PCI): A Tonality-Based Measure of Media Bias .................. 11 3.3 Application of the Media Data to the PCI ........................................................................................... 12 4. Do the Big Four serve as 4th Estate? ............................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Empirical Strategy ....................................................................................................................................... 15 4.1.1 Econometric Set Up ........................................................................................................................... 15 4.1.2 Identification Strategy...................................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Empirical Results ......................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2.1 Average Results on the Big Four .................................................................................................. 19 4.2.2 Detailed Results on ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC News ............................................................. 23 5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................ 26 References .......................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................................. 31 2 1. Introduction With the success of Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential elections, the media and its role in democracies are, once again, under scrutiny. For instance, on the one side, ABC News, CBS News, and NBC News are often seen to be at least slightly politically left biased and are regularly accused of spreading “fake news” from the US president’s perspective. On the other side, FOX News is often seen as politically right biased, spreading “fake news” from the perspective of the other side of the political spectrum. The strong and rising criticism of traditional media in the late 2010s, not just in the US, leads us to the question the role media play in the US democracy. In this context, a rather optimistic perspective can be traced back to parliamentary debate in 1787 in the United Kingdom on providing media access to the parliament. In this debate, Edmund Burke claimed that media form the “fourth estate” of government – going beyond the traditional three estates: The Lords Spiritual, the Lords Temporal, and the House of Commons. A less optimistic perspective is provided by Public Choice literature: For instance, Anderson and McLaren (2012) argue that media are owned by people with political and profit motives, who use their influence to change policy. Other authors argue that governments capture the media through policy decisions in their favor or by access to the news stories in order to maintain “a ‘cozy’ relationship with the media” (Besley and Prat, 2006, 720). In particular, the latter explanation of media capture implies that media outlets tend to be less critical of the government. The former explanation would lead us to expect that such pro-government bias exists among media outlets that are owned or edited by people aligned with the political party in power. In both cases, media would fail in fulfilling their role as the fourth estate. In this contribution, we analyze the role of four leading news gathering organizations in the US – ABC News, CBS News, FOX News, and NBC News – on its democracy on the basis of a huge amount of hand-coded media data that allows for focusing on the tonality of political reporting