www.ssoar.info Presidential Election in Belarus: Tensions Are Likely to Prevail Rácz, András Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Stellungnahme / comment Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Rácz, A. (2020). Presidential Election in Belarus: Tensions Are Likely to Prevail. (DGAP Commentary, 22). Berlin: Forschungsinstitut der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V.. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168- ssoar-69227-1 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer CC BY-NC-ND Lizenz This document is made available under a CC BY-NC-ND Licence (Namensnennung-Nicht-kommerziell-Keine Bearbeitung) zur (Attribution-Non Comercial-NoDerivatives). For more Information Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den CC-Lizenzen finden see: Sie hier: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.de German Council on Foreign Relations No. 22 August 2020 COMMENTARY Presidential Election in Belarus Tensions Are Likely to Prevail The impending presidential elec- was created, it is questionable whether tion in Belarus on August 9, 2020, and how it will perform after the vote. is highly likely to result in the smooth The same political machinery that was victory of incumbent Alexandr designed to effectively handle a largely Lukashenko. Despite this fact, the passive population will then need to unprecedented – and still growing – cope with an active, mobilized elector- politicization of Belarusian society ate, which demands more representa- András Rácz Senior Research Fellow on Russia, constitutes a challenge to the regime tion and cannot be repressed due to Robert Bosch Center for Central that will not fade even after a clear- current geopolitical considerations. In and Eastern Europe, Russia, and cut election. The resulting tensions order to counterbalance growing pres- Central Asia will require more diplomatic atten- sure from Russia after its illegal annex- tion from Germany and the Europe- ation of Crimea in 2014, Lukashenko’s an Union. regime has needed to improve its pre- viously icy relations with the West. From the perspective of President Severe repression would, therefore, be Alexandr Lukashenko, who has been counterproductive. ruling Belarus for 26 years, the stage is well set for another victory. None of the three most powerful potential op- PLEASE NOTE: position leaders are allowed to par- The Republic of Belarus rec- ticipate in the election this Sunday. ognizes two official languages, Nevertheless, with his popular support Belarusian and Russian. The hitting a historical low and after an un- choice of transliterating Belaru- precedented mobilization of Belarusian sian names on the basis of their society, Lukashenko’s regime is facing Russian equivalents was made a real dilemma. While the Belarusian here in order to help the wider political system, which was skillfully public more easily comprehend developed over the last two decades to the situation in Belarus; thus, it ensure the continuity of Lukashenko’s does not represent any political power, is still highly likely to deliver or other preference. the official election results for which it No. 22 | 2 COMMENTARY Presidential Election in Belarus: Tensions Are Likely to Prevail Only a few weeks after EU-Belarus visa to the ballots, their popularity and po- Belarus. As yet, violence has remained facilitation came into force on July 1, tential to mobilize voters are miniscule individually targeted, and no mass 2020, the impending presidential elec- compared either to Lukashenko or crackdown have taken place. tion now poses a significant challenge any of these three banned opposition to the cautious normalization that has figures. In addition, the regime has ensured been developing between the Europe- that election observation will be lim- an Union and Belarus. Especially given Still, there is a fourth opposition can- ited. Because the Belarusian Foreign Germany’s presidency of the EU Coun- didate indeed worth noting: Svetlana Ministry sent its invitation to the Or- cil, German diplomacy, which has al- Tikhanovskaya, the wife of banned ganization for Security and Coopera- ready played an important role in this candidate Sergei Tikhanovksy, who tion in Europe so late that long-term process, will be needed more than ever made a brave, sudden move to be- international observation was made in the aftermath of this election – par- come an official presidential can- impossible, the OSCE is not send- ticularly if any major crisis occurs. didate in his stead. Unprecedented ing observers. Moreover, Belarus’s crowds of tens of thousands of people CEC limited domestic observation by have attended Tikhanovskaya’s rallies, claiming the need to maintain social “THREE LADIES” REPLACE in which she appears together with distancing due to the COVID-19 pan- THE ESTABLISHED Veronika Tsepkalo, the wife of banned demic. The regime has also established POLITICAL OPPOSITION candidate Valery Tsepkalo, and Maria many other administrative measures to Kolesnikova, the former campaign ensure the expected result. The biggest challenge to Lukashen- manager of Babariko. By joining forces, ko’s system is not the traditional politi- these “three ladies” have two key ad- Because it is forbidden to publish elec- cal opposition but rather the increased vantages. First, they are not members tion-related opinion polls in Belarus, political activism of Belarusian soci- of the old Belarusian democratic op- no data-based comparison between ety that is fueled by economic hard- position, which has been defeated in the candidates is possible. Still, several ship as well as the regime’s denials of every previous election. Second, they unofficial surveys, as well as the pub- the COVID-19 pandemic. Even when can be bolstered by the backers of lished numbers of signatures collected Lukashenko’s regime made it impos- Babariko and Tsepkalo, genuine, bot- to nominate candidates, indicate that sible for the three most powerful po- tom-up politicians who have already the president’s popularity is relatively tential opposition candidates – blogger proven themselves in business and low, particularly in Minsk. Meanwhile, Sergei Tikhanovksy, former regime in- politics and enjoy the grassroots sup- mass attendance at the gatherings sider Viktor Babariko, and former Be- port of wide segments of Belarusian of the three ladies demonstrate that larusian ambassador to Washington society. From this perspective, one they are indeed popular and have sub- Valery Tsepkalo – to run in the elec- can see similarities to the recent elec- stantial potential to mobilize voters. tion, it could not prevent bottom-up tions of Slovakian President Zuzana Since people have taken to the streets mobilization. Čaputová or Ukrainian President for a last-minute presidential candi- Volodymyr Zelenskyi, both of whom date joined by two other women who Tikhanovksy could not register as a were political newcomers who suc- are not even on the ballot, it is unlike- candidate because he has been in ad- cessfully challenged both the incum- ly that this protest mood will disappear ministrative arrest since May 6, 2020. bents and opposition. after the election. Therefore, the at- Babariko, who previously headed the mosphere poses a serious challenge to Belgazprombank, was arrested on So far, the regime has employed both Lukashenko’s system. fraud-related charges on June 18 and information deterrence and demon- banned from registering. Tsepkalo, strative use of force in order to pre- who also founded Belarus’s Hi-Tech vent further political mobilization. POST-ELECTION Park, was prevented from running. In Supporters of the opposition have PERIOD IS OF CRUCIAL his case, the Central Elections Com- been abducted from busy streets by IMPORTANCE mission (CEC) invalidated so ma- officers in plain clothes, and hundreds ny of the 160,000 signatures that he are getting arrested on administrative The Belarusian opposition has tra- submitted to recommend his candi- charges. While state television aired ditionally organized large-scale dacy that he could not pass the nom- news about a brutal riot police unit demonstrations in Minsk on the eve ination threshold of 100,000. Although that is fanatically loyal to Lukashenko, of presidential elections. The pro- three other opposition candidates the president himself has sworn pub- tests in 2006 and 2010 were smashed; (Andrei Dmitriev, Anna Konopatskaya, licly that he will prevent any Maidan- even prominent opposition politicians and Sergei Cherechen) did make it on- type scenario from taking place in were beaten and arrested. In the post- No. 22 | 3 COMMENTARY Presidential Election in Belarus: Tensions Are Likely to Prevail Crimea geopolitical context, howev- abroad and the Belarusian military best interest of the EU and Germany to er, Belarusian authorities have been would need to be ready to “prevent an foster Belarus’s accession to the WTO. a lot less repressive. The fact that the escalation.” 2015 presidential election was managed If a major crackdown takes place or smoothly, without any major crack- Whatever the real reason for the pres- people are imprisoned on political downs, paved the way for the EU to lift ence of those Russians in Belarus was – charges, the EU needs an answer that most of its sanctions on Belarus in 2016. a plausible explanation is that they were acts as a strong deterrent, preventing en route to a mission in a third country a further deterioration of the situation Consequently, how the regime will – Lukashenko apparently decided to in- while not negating the results of the handle the opposition in the few days strumentalize the incident in both do- normalization process. After an ini- left until the August 9 election – and mestic and foreign policy. By blaming tial response from High Representative particularly thereafter – is crucially Tikhanovsky, he delivered a blow to the Josep Borrell, the European Council important. Geopolitical consider- opposition. By accusing Russia, he cre- could follow up on the statement made ations could still point to a relatively ated a narrative that he could later use on June 1, 2020, by Robert Biedroń, light-handed treatment of election- both at home and in Moscow.