We need PRS (Proper Residential Schemes) CHANCERY HOUSE, LIVERPOO L LIVERPOOL RESIDENTIAL UPDATE QUARTER 3 2015 For regular updates, news and offers follow us on: Twitter.com/cityresidential Facebook.com/cityresidential City Residential City Residential is Liverpool’s award winning, premier residential agent specialising in city living in Liverpool and across the Northwest. In addition to having one of the largest residential teams in Liverpool we are also recognised as one of the leading northwest residential specialists with our consultancy services respected throughout the industry. Operating from Liverpool’s most prominent and modern showroom we offer the full range of residential services across the Merseyside and Greater Manchester regions: • Sales • New Build Sales/advice/consultancy • Lettings/Management • PRS (Private Rented Sector) advice/consultancy • Finance/Mortgages • Investors Buying Service • Property Consultancy /Market Research • Student deals, finance and restructuring • Bulk Deals & Investment Properties • Ground Rent/Freehold Investments • Serviced Apartment deals/leases For further information contact Alan Bevan on 0151 231 6100 or 07970 498187 [email protected] www.cityresidential.co.uk Philharmonic Rise A stunning development of 4 & 5 Bedroom townhouses located on Falkner Street in the heart of the Georgian/Canning quarter of the city. ONE house remaining in 1 st Phase Showhouse January 2016 Prices from £495,000 A development by Sole Selling Agent All enquiries Call us on 0151 231 6100 [email protected] Market Summary Sales • Prices up 1.05% on quarter and 5.32% annually. • City in desperate need of “Proper Residential Schemes” • No sign of buy to let drop off after Budget attack on tax & wear and tear reliefs Lettings • Prices up 0.59% on quarter and 4.91% on year. • Quality schemes seeing the biggest rental rises • PRS rents in The Keel prove there is a market for better quality lettings stock Population Analysis • Huge increase in population as 2,500 student beds brought online during quarter • City Centre core population nearly 40,000 and wider population approaching 45,000 Sales and Completions Analysis • .Poor quarter for completions although sales pipeline levels suggest better final quarter Student Market • 2,500 beds delivered for 2015/2016 term start • Occupancy/rents appear to have held up well across most schemes • Student review to be approved by LCC cabinet in October with no moratorium • BlackRock student fund purchases Hope Street Apartments scheme in £30m deal Freehold/Ground Rents • .Market strength continues although concerns over interest rate rises weighing on pricing Finance & Mortgage • Normal mortgage rates rise throughout quarter as interest rate expectations rise • Buy to Let rates drop as more lenders look to this sector for growth Auction Results • More stock sold in The Reach with 2 beds still being bought at less than £100,000 • Yields continue to drop although based upon historic rents not market rents Liverpool Development Update • Albany development now all sold • Chinatown extension scheme announced by PHD1 • Seven Capital on site at Wellington Buildings, The Strand completion for May 2016 • Chancery House scheme developers now on site with completion set for Sep 2016 Private Rented Sector • The Keel PRS scheme completed with well over 50% of the scheme let/occupied • Promenade Estate’s Baltic scheme sold to VISTA UK Real Estate in £50 million + deal Liverpool City Centre/Docklands Pricing AVERAGE PRICES SALES City Centre Apartment Size Average Price % Change % Change Type (Square ft) 3 Months 12 Months 1 Bed 550 £105,000 1.06% 4.74% 2 Bed 625 £130,600 1.87% 6.08% 2 Bed 2 Bath 725 £144,800 2.12% 4.88% 2 Bed Duplex 900 £164,560 1.05% 3.73% 2 Bed Penthouse 1200 £218,800 1.39% 5.11% Average £152,752 1.50% 4.91% SALES Docklands Apartment Size Average Price % Change % Change Type (Square ft) 3 Months 12 Months 1 Bed 550 £117,600 0.34% 4.55% 2 Bed 625 £151,100 0.95% 6.38% 2 Bed 2 Bath 725 £165,000 0.18% 4.98% 2 Bed Duplex 900 £200,600 1.01% 8.23% 2 Bed Penthouse 1200 £266,000 0.57% 4.55% Average £180,060 0.61% 5.74% Figures include parking where available LETTINGS City Centre Apartment Size Average % Change % Change Type (Square ft) Rental 3 Months 12 Months 1 Bed 550 £605 0.83% 3.27% 2 Bed 625 £718 0.42% 4.69% 2 Bed 2 Bath 725 £768 1.05% 4.40% 2 Bed Duplex 900 £833 0.24% 6.54% 2 Bed Penthouse 1200 £1,106 0.00% 6.55% Average £806 0.51% 5.09% LETTINGS Docklands Apartment Size Average % Change % Change Type (Square ft) Rental 3 Months 12 Months 1 Bed 550 £617 0.82% 3.73% 2 Bed 625 £690 0.58% 4.57% 2 Bed 2 Bath 725 £753 0.67% 5.20% 2 Bed Duplex 900 £817 1.24% 4.53% 2 Bed Penthouse 1200 £1,069 0.00% 5.63% Average £789 0.66% 4.73% Figures assume parking where available and furnished to a decent standard Liverpool City Centre/Docks Averages Apartment % Change % Change Type 3 Months 12 Months Sales 1.05% 5.32% Lettings 0.59% 4.91% The sales figures are based upon a sample of apartments in the city/docklands and the prices that would be achieved in today’s market conditions. They are not based on completed sales as the sample size would to be too low and could well result in wild variations in price. The lettings figures are based upon market evidence. For each location a sample of 5 developments is used ranging from luxury to basic. CHANCERY HOUSE Chancery House, Paradise Street, Liverpool, L1 3HE A stunning new residential development comprising the conversion of the former Gordon Smith Institute seaman’s refuge together with a striking new build addition . • Range of 1, 2 and 3 bed apartments LIVERPOOL ONE • Grade 2 listed building built in 1899 • Adjoining Liverpool One • Short walk to Albert Dock/Echo Arena • Prices from only £125,000 • Launching January 2016 Enquires to ALBERT 0151 231 6100 DOCK [email protected] www.chanceryhouseliverpool.co.uk Residential Sales The market in Liverpool city centre continued to push ahead towards the end of the 3 rd quarter after a somewhat quieter summer period. We saw prices increase by an average of 1.05% over the three months to 30 th September 2015 and an annual increase of 5.32%. This compares with the Halifax price index showing a quarterly increase of 2.0% and annually 8.6%. Nationwide have reported more disappointing figures with a quarterly change of just 0.5% and an annual increase of 3.8%. Perhaps most surprising was the quarterly fall in the northwest market of 0.5%. We highlighted in our last report the “levelling of the playing field between homeowners and investors” created by the chancellor’s first true blue budget in 20 years. The changes which included a more onerous tax charge on landlords (through the restriction on tax relief to basic rate) and the proposed changes to the wear and tear allowances are expected to have an impact on the buy to let market. Although the full effect of these changes will not be felt until 2020 we would expect to see some initial reaction from investors either concerned or believing that it will not affect them/the market. The initial response from both new and existing investors is that they appear generally unconcerned as to the proposals and are continuing to invest in the city in increasing numbers/amounts. We continue to see a huge and growing amount of interest in the Liverpool city centre market from outsiders, whether they are individual buyers or large institutional funds. We have discussed PRS at length and the announcement that VISTA have agreed to purchase the Promenade Estates Baltic Village scheme for £50m highlights the growing attractiveness of the city as a place to invest long term money in residential projects. Interestingly however one or two “commentators” are beginning to suggest that we are developing too much residential and that we are at risk of the market overheating. Whist we do believe that there are certain types of schemes, location and product that may well begin to oversupply (should all of the pipeline get built) there still remains an area of the market that continues to be massively undersupplied which we are calling “proper residential stock”. So what do we mean by “proper residential schemes” and why in our opinion is it so undersupplied? We’ve discussed at length the huge increase in interest in Liverpool as a place to live and lack of new build development geared towards this type of buyer. Whilst the other type of PRS (Private Rented Sector) will offer a great range of rental stock for this growing demand, who is going to build those apartments that are being sought by these new buyers? The other issue that will exaggerate this imbalance is the fact that the majority of what was built in Liverpool City Centre (as with many other northern cities) during the last boom of 2002-2007 was not of particularly great quality and was often designed for the buy to let investor/speculator. With a limited supply of good quality residential schemes, the majority of what is being built is geared towards the investment market and a huge and growing demand for “proper residential schemes”; you can see why we are particularly excited about this sector of the market. The main issue we face is who is going to tap into this market? Initially it will be niche developers who have the funding to develop smaller schemes but hopefully this will be supplemented with larger developers realising the market is undersupplied.