Transportation Trends and Emerging Technologies Final Report | October 2018 FOR THE NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS EXPRESSWAY SYSTEM Prepared for: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................................... i Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1-1 Expressway System Trends .............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1 Aging system .................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Comparison of available bridge condition, pavement condition, and pavement age of IDOT System and Tollway System ............................................................ 2-1 2.2 Slow Growth in Expressway Capacity .............................................................................. 2-2 2.3 Decline in Construction Purchasing Power of Gas Taxes and Vehicle Fees ..................... 2-2 2.4 Constrained Resources Leading toward User-Fee Solutions ........................................... 2-3 Passenger Transportation Trends ..................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Congestion and Reliability Trends ................................................................................... 3-1 3-2 3-3 3.2 Expressway Crash Trends ................................................................................................. 3-4 3.3 Continued Dominance of Short Trips............................................................................... 3-4 3.3.1 All Purpose .......................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3.2 Commuting ......................................................................................................... 3-6 3.4 Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth ........................................................................................ 3-6 3.4.1 Historic by Expressway ....................................................................................... 3-6 3.4.2 VMT by County/City of Chicago ........................................................................ 3-11 3.5 Transit ............................................................................................................................ 3-11 3.5.1 Increased Demand for Rail and Express Bus Services, including Bus-On-Shoulder, But Lower Demand for Local Buses .................................................................. 3-11 3.5.2 Lack of Funding for Operations ......................................................................... 3-14 Freight Transportation Trends .......................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Continued Dominance of Truck Traffic, but with Growing Intermodal Volumes ............ 4-1 4.2 Freight as an Increasing Proportion of VMT .................................................................... 4-1 4.3 Suburbanization and Ex-Urbanization of Freight Facilities .............................................. 4-2 4.4 Urban Freight Issues ........................................................................................................ 4-2 4.4.1 Access Issues for First and Last Miles ................................................................. 4-2 4.5 Truck Parking ................................................................................................................... 4-3 4.5.1 ATRI Survey of Truck Parking .............................................................................. 4-3 4.5.2 Time of Day of Pickups, Deliveries, and Truck Travel ......................................... 4-6 4.6 Residential and Business Delivery and Pickup, Larger Numbers of Smaller Trucks ........ 4-6 4.7 Bigger Loads for Over-The-Road Operations ................................................................... 4-6 4.8 Projected Changes in Truck Flows ................................................................................... 4-6 Environmental and Community Trends ............................................................................................ 5-1 5.1 Increased Flooding Potential ........................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Air Quality ........................................................................................................................ 5-1 5.3 Noise ................................................................................................................................ 5-2 5.4 Barrier Aspect of Expressway System .............................................................................. 5-2 5.5 Congestion Pricing - Traffic Spillover onto Surface Streets during Congestion ............... 5-2 5.6 Greenfield/Low-Density Development Trends ................................................................ 5-3 BI1004181146CHI i TRANSPORTATION TRENDS AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Emerging Technologies and Strategic Approaches ............................................................................ 6-1 6.1 Tunnel Technologies ........................................................................................................ 6-1 6.1.1 What It Is ............................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1.2 Current Technology and Future Trends .............................................................. 6-1 6.1.3 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 6-2 6.2 Cantilevered Facilities ...................................................................................................... 6-3 6.2.1 What It Is ............................................................................................................. 6-3 6.2.2 Current and Future Trends ................................................................................. 6-3 6.2.3 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 6-3 6.3 Pavement Technologies ................................................................................................... 6-4 6.3.1 What It Is ............................................................................................................. 6-4 6.3.2 Current Technology ............................................................................................ 6-4 6.3.3 Future Trends ...................................................................................................... 6-6 6.3.4 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 6-10 6.4 Bridge and Roadway Designs to Mitigate Increased Flood Risks .................................. 6-12 6.4.1 What It Is ........................................................................................................... 6-12 6.4.2 Current Technology .......................................................................................... 6-12 6.4.3 Future Trends .................................................................................................... 6-13 6.4.4 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 6-15 6.5 Transportation System Management Technologies ...................................................... 6-17 6.5.1 What It Is ........................................................................................................... 6-17 6.5.2 Current and Future Trends ............................................................................... 6-17 6.5.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 6-23 6.6 Automated and Connected Vehicle Technologies ......................................................... 6-24 6.6.1 What It Is ........................................................................................................... 6-24 6.6.2 Current and Future Trends ............................................................................... 6-24 6.6.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 6-29 6.6.4 CAV Research Studies ....................................................................................... 6-30 6.7 Electric Vehicle Technologies ......................................................................................... 6-30 6.7.1 What It Is ........................................................................................................... 6-30 6.7.2 Current and Future Trends ............................................................................... 6-30 6.7.3 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 6-32 6.8 Traffic Management Technologies for Passenger Vehicles ........................................... 6-33 6.8.1 What It Is ........................................................................................................... 6-33 6.8.2 Current and Future Trends ............................................................................... 6-33 6.8.3 Recommendations ...........................................................................................