University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biological and Marine Sciences 2020-10-21 Horizon Scanning to Predict and Prioritize Invasive Alien Species With the Potential to Threaten Human Health and Economies on Cyprus Peyton, JM http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/16718 10.3389/fevo.2020.566281 Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Frontiers Media SA All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. 1 Horizon scanning to predict and prioritise invasive alien species with the potential to threaten 2 human health and economies on Cyprus 3 Peyton, J. M.1*, Martinou, A.F5,13,18, Adriaens, T.2, Chartosia, N.3, Karachle, P. K.4, Rabitsch, W.6, 4 Tricarico, E.7, Arianoutsou, M.8, Bacher, S.9, Bazos, I.8, Brundu, G.10, Bruno-McClung, E.5, 5 Charalambidou, I.11, Demetriou, M.12, Galanidi, M.14, Galil, B.15, Guillem, R.16, Hadjiafxentis, K.17, 6 Hadjioannou, L.18, Hadjistylli, M.19, Hall-Spencer, J.M. 20, Jimenez, C.18, Johnstone, G.21, Kleitou, P.20,23, 7 Kletou, D.23, Koukkoularidou, D.17, Leontiou, S.24, Maczey, N.25, Michailidis, N.26, Mountford, J. O.1, 8 Papatheodoulou, A.27, Pescott, O.L. 1, Phanis, C.28, Preda, C.29, Rorke, S. 1, Shaw, R. H.25, Solarz, W.30, 9 Taylor, C.5, Trajanovski, S.31, Tziortzis, I.32, Tzirkalli, E.33, Uludag, A.34, Vimercati, G.9, Zdraveski, K.35, 10 Zenetos, A.4 and Roy, H. E.1 11 12 1 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK 13 2 Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Havenlaan 88 bus 73, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium, 14 ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7268-4200 15 3 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, 1 Panepistimiou Str., 2109 Aglantzia, 16 Nicosia, Cyprus 17 4 Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters, 18 46.7 km Athens Sounio ave., P.O. Box 712, 19013 Anavyssos Attiki, Greece, ORCID ID (Voula): 0000- 19 0002-6934-1773, ORCID ID (Argyro) /0000-0003-2670-042X 20 5 Joint Services Health Unit Cyprus, BFC RAF Akrotiri BFPO 57 21 6 Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Wien, Austria 22 7 Department of Biology, University of Florence, Via Madonna del Piano 6, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino 23 (FI), Italy; Orcid: 0000-0002-7392-0794 24 8Department of Ecology and Systematics, Faculty of Biology, National and Kapodistrian University of 25 Athens, 15784 Greece, margarita ORCID ID: 0000-0002-6743-9240 Iannis - Orcid ID - 26 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8498-7505 27 9 Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 10, 1700 Friborg, Switzerland; 28 ORCID Bacher: 0000-0001-5147-7165 – Gio - https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2419-8088 29 10 University of Sassari, Department of Agriculture, Viale Italia 39, 07100 Sassari, Italy - ORCID: 0000- 30 0003-3076-4098 31 11 Department of Life and Health Sciences, School of Sciences and Engineering, University of Nicosia, 32 2417, Nicosia, Cyprus; ORCID: 0000-0003-3154-4169 33 12 Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus 34 14 Ustun Energy Engineering LLC, Marine Ecology Division, Teknopark Izmir A1/49, Urla, Izmir 0000- 35 0003-3648-6666 (Marika Galanidi) 36 15 The Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel 37 16 Gibraltar Botanic Gardens, The Alameda. Red Sands Road, Gibraltar GX11 1AA 38 17 Department of Agriculture, Louki Akrita, 1412 Nicosia, Cyprus 39 18 Enalia Physis Environmental Research Centre, Acropoleos 2, Aglantzia 2101, Lefkosia, Cyprus 40 ORCID: 0000-0003-3413-6662 (CJ) 0000-0001-5864-5467 (LH) 41 19 Department of Environment, 20-22 28th Octovriou Ave, 2414 Engomi, Lefkosia, Cyprus - ORCID: 42 0000-0002-9084-173X 43 20 Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK 44 ORCID: 0000-0002-6915-2518 45 21 Sovereign Base Area Administration, Environmental Department, Episkopi, BFPO 53 46 23 Marine and Environmental Research (MER) Lab Ltd, 202 Amathountos Avenue, Marina Gardens, 47 Block B, Limassol 4533, Cyprus - ORCID PK: 0000-0002-9168-4721; DK: 0000-0001-6052-1607 48 24 School of Pure and Applied Sciences, Open University of Cyprus, PO Box 12794, 2252, Nicosia, 49 Cyprus 50 25 Cabi, Bakeham Lane, Egham, TW20 9TY, UK – RS - ORCID: 0000-0003-0805-1841 51 26 Department of Fisheries and Marine Research, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and 52 Environment, 101 Vithleem Str., 1416 Strovolos, Nicosia, Cyprus 53 27 I.A.CO Environmental & Water Consultants, P.O. Box 28401, Nicosia 2094, Cyprus 54 28 Cyprus Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport and Youth, Kimonos and Thoukididou crn, 1434 55 Nicosia 56 29 Department of Natural Sciences, Ovidius University of Constanta, 1 Universitatii Alley, Building B, 57 900470, Constanta, Romania; orcid.org/0000-0002-3513-7344 58 30 Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Al. Mickiewicza 33, 31-120 Kraków, 59 Poland 60 31 Hydrobiological Institute Ohrid. Naum Ohridski 50. 6000, Ohrid, North Macedonia 61 (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0682-8568) 62 32 Water Development Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment. 63 Kennedy Avenue 100-110, Pallouriotissa, 1047 Nicosia, Cyprus. ORCID: 0000-0002-9315-7773 64 33 Department of Biological Applications and Technology, University of Ioannina, 45110, Ioannina, 65 Greece, ORCID: 0000-0002-7839-2150 66 34 Plant Protection Department, Faculty of Agriculture, ÇOMÜ, Çanakkale, Turkey. ORCID ID: 0000- 67 0002-7137-2616 68 35 PI Galicica National Park. Velestovski pat bb. 6000, Ohrid, North Macedonia 69 (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5934-4292) 70 *Corresponding author: J Peyton ([email protected]) 71 72 Abstract 73 Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are known to be a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem function 74 and there is increasing evidence of their impacts on human health and economies globally. We 75 undertook horizon scanning using expert-elicitation, to predict arrivals of IAS that could have 76 adverse human health or economic impacts on the island of Cyprus. Three hundred and twenty five 77 IAS comprising 89 plants, 37 freshwater animals, 61 terrestrial invertebrates, 93 terrestrial 78 vertebrates and 45 marine species, were assessed during a two-day workshop involving forty-two 79 participants both present in person at the workshop and through email correspondence, to derive 80 two ranked lists: 1. IAS with potential human health impacts (20 species) and 2. IAS with potential 81 economic impacts (50 species ranked in bands of 1-10, 11-20, 21-50). Five species of mosquitoes 82 (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Aedes flavopictus, Aedes japonicus and Culex quinquefasciatus) 83 were considered a potential threat to both human health and economies. It was evident that the IAS 84 identified through this process could potentially arrive through many pathways (25 and 23 pathways 85 were noted for the top 20 IAS on the human health and economic impact lists respectively). 86 Contaminant on plants, pet / aquarium / terrarium species (including live food for such species), 87 hitchhikers in or on aeroplanes, hitchhikers in or on ship / boats and vehicles were the main pathways 88 that arose across both lists. We discuss the relevance of horizon scanning lists to inform biosecurity 89 policies and communication on IAS, highlighting the importance of increasing understanding 90 amongst all stakeholders, including the public, to reduce the risks associated with IAS on the horizon. 91 92 Key words 93 Prevention; policy; negative impact, Mediterranean Sea, introduction pathways, communication. 94 95 Introduction 96 Invasive alien species (IAS), species introduced either intentionally or unintentionally by humans 97 outside of their native range, and causing negative impacts to biodiversity, ecosystem services, 98 economy and / or society, are a major concern globally (Russell et al. 2017, Pauchard et al. 2018, 99 Díaz et al. 2019, Stoett et al. 2019). There is growing evidence of adverse effects of IAS on ecosystem 100 function (Schindler et al. 2015, Vilà and Hulme 2017), ecosystem services (such as crop production, 101 timber provision, seafood and recreation) and to economies and human health (Schindler et al. 102 2015, Martinou and Roy 2018). 103 IAS can have direct negative impacts on human health through disease transmission, for example 104 certain mosquito species (Moore and Mitchell 1997) or through having highly allergenic pollen as is 105 the case with some plants (Samson et al. 2017, Lazzaro et al. 2018). There are also examples of 106 poisonous or venomous marine IAS causing direct health impacts, e.g. the venomous striped eel 107 catfish Plosotus lineatus was responsible for 10 % of the marine organism related injuries 108 experienced by fishermen off the coast of Israel (Gweta et al. 2008). Additionally, the presence of 109 IAS can have indirect health impacts that might, for example, be caused by loss of agricultural 110 production and food security or by causing traffic accidents (Schindler et al. 2015). Economically, 111 costs of direct impacts and management of IAS to agriculture, forestry and fisheries were estimated 112 at minimum €12.5 billion in Europe in 2012, but this was considered a conservative estimate 113 (Kettunen et al. 2009). In Great Britain, the cost to the economy incurred by IAS was estimated at 114 £1.7 billion in 2010 (Williams et al. 2010). 115 Predicting the arrival of IAS and prioritising their prevention are seen as critical for informing 116 biosecurity and management of such species (Shine et al.