Diplomats and diplomacy: Assessing the influence of experience in the implementation of U.S. foreign policy by Justin Eric Kidd B.S., Louisiana State University, 1988 M.S., Florida Institute of Technology, 1998 M.M.A., Marine Corps University, 2003 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies Program College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2018 Abstract In 2008, Ambassador’s Neumann and Pickering wrote letters to Senator’s Obama and McCain, with recommendations on qualifications for US Ambassador’s. Both Senator’s had recently received their party’s nomination for President, and Neumann and Pickering took the opportunity to suggest qualifications they believed were necessary for US ambassadors to perform their diplomatic tasks better. Their letters suggested that career ambassadors perform better, and they recommended that political appointees be limited to ten percent. The historical average has been roughly thirty percent. They also recommended that ambassadors have previous regional experience, and be knowledgeable about the countries in which they would be assigned, as well as speak the local language. What their letters were missing was evidence these traits actually make a difference in how well ambassadors perform their roles. In fact, this evidence is missing from the extant literature describing ambassadorial roles and responsibilities. This dissertation seeks to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze Neumann’s and Pickering’s qualifications, marking the first time this important subject has been examined using social science methodology. Diplomats and diplomacy: Assessing the influence of experience in the implementation of U.S. foreign policy by Justin Eric Kidd B.S., Louisiana State University, 1988 M.S., Florida Institute of Technology, 1998 M.M.A., Marine Corps University, 2003 A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies Program College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2018 Approved by: Major Professor Jeffrey Pickering Copyright © Justin Eric Kidd 2018. Abstract In 2008, Ambassador’s Neumann and Pickering wrote letters to Senator’s Obama and McCain, with recommendations on qualifications for US Ambassador’s. Both Senator’s had recently received their party’s nomination for President, and Neumann and Pickering took the opportunity to suggest qualifications they believed were necessary for US ambassadors to perform their diplomatic tasks better. Their letters suggested that career ambassadors perform better, and they recommended that political appointees be limited to ten percent. The historical average has been roughly thirty percent. They also recommended that ambassadors have previous regional experience, and be knowledgeable about the countries in which they would be assigned, as well as speak the local language. What their letters were missing was evidence these traits actually make a difference in how well ambassadors perform their roles. In fact, this evidence is missing from the extant literature describing ambassadorial roles and responsibilities. This dissertation seeks to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze Neumann’s and Pickering’s qualifications, marking the first time this important subject has been examined using social science methodology. Table of Contents List of Tables ...................................................................................................................xi List of Graphs ................................................................................................................. xii List of Charts ................................................................................................................. xiii Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................... xiv Dedication ..................................................................................................................... xvi Chapter 1: Introduction and Statement of the Problem ................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 Statement of the Problem ................................................................................ 5 1.1.2 Purpose of the Study ....................................................................................... 6 1.1.3 Research Design ............................................................................................. 7 1.1.4 The Study ........................................................................................................ 9 1.1.5 Significance of the Study ............................................................................... 10 1.1.6 Organization of the Study .............................................................................. 12 Chapter 2: Literature Review ......................................................................................... 13 Section I ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Section II Importance of an ambassador .............................................................. 19 2.2.1 The complexities of the foreign policy environment ....................................... 19 2.2.2 Maintaining contact with Washington ............................................................. 20 2.2.3 There is more to the role of Ambassador than diplomacy .............................. 21 2.3 Section III Potential limitations of career ambassadors ........................................ 22 2.3.1 Organizational Culture at the Department of State ........................................ 22 2.3.2 A preference for the status quo ..................................................................... 24 2.3.3 Limited training and education ....................................................................... 27 2.3.4 The danger of clientitis ................................................................................... 29 2.3.5 Resistance to change .................................................................................... 31 vi 2.4.1 Presidents are not immune from a lack of expertness ................................... 36 2.4.2 The case for career Foreign Service Ambassadors ....................................... 38 2.4.3 The case for non-career political appointed Ambassadors ............................ 41 2.5 Attributes needed for success of either career or political appointees ................. 45 2.5.1 Executive performance and the managerial crisis ......................................... 45 2.5.2 Standardization through objective performance criteria ................................. 47 2.6 Research Design.................................................................................................. 50 2.6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 50 2.6.2 The study ....................................................................................................... 51 2.6.3 The Research Design .................................................................................... 53 2.6.4 Case study using a structured, focused comparison approach ..................... 56 2.6.5 Examining cooperation during a crisis – Yom Kippur and the oil embargo .... 57 2.6.6 Case Selection .............................................................................................. 58 Chapter 3: Statistical Analysis ....................................................................................... 60 Section I ..................................................................................................................... 60 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 60 3.1.1 Research Variables, Datasets, and Methods ................................................. 61 3.1.2 The dependent variable ................................................................................. 61 3.1.3 The independent variables and attributes ...................................................... 62 3.1.4 The control variables ..................................................................................... 64 3.1.5 The datasets .................................................................................................. 65 3.2 Section II .............................................................................................................. 67 3.2.1 Descriptive Statistics ...................................................................................... 67 3.2.2 Statistical Analysis ......................................................................................... 72 3.2.3 Statistical analysis of the upper conflict range of COPDAB data (SV9-15) .... 80 3.2.4 Statistical analysis of the lower cooperation range of COPDAB data (SV2-8)86 3.3 Summary of findings ............................................................................................ 91 3.3.1 Discussion and Analysis ................................................................................ 92 vii