SUSTAINABLE ENERGY ACCESS PLANNING A CASE STUDY AUGUST 2018 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK SU STAINABLE ENERGY ACCESS PLANNING A CASE STUDY AUGUST 2018 AsIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2018 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2018. ISBN 978-92-9261-040-1 (print), 978-92-9261-041-8 (electronic) Publication Stock No. TCS189194 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS189194 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. 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Foreword iii Contents Figures and Tables v Foreword xi Acknowledgment xii Abbreviations xiii Weights and Measures xiv Executive Summary xv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objective of Study 2 1.3 Plan of the Report 2 2 Methodology and Data 4 2.1 Methodology 4 2.2 Data 7 3 Demographic and Energy Profile of Pyuthan District 8 3.1 Introduction 8 3.2 Energy Access Situation in Pyuthan District 10 3.3 Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector 12 3.4 Key Findings 16 4 Energy Resource Assessment 18 4.1 Introduction 18 4.2 Methodology 19 4.3 Biomass Energy Resources 19 4.4 New Renewable Energy Sources 25 4.5 Petroleum Products 29 4.6 Other Rural Energy Technologies 29 4.7 Key Findings and Limitations 30 5 Energy Poverty Analysis 32 5.1 Introduction 32 5.2 Methodology 32 5.3 Results 38 5.4 Key Findings and Limitations 46 6 Energy Demand Assessment 48 6.1 Introduction 48 6.2 Methodology 48 6.3 Household Energy Demand 53 6.4 Key Findings and Limitations 59 iii iv Contents 7 Sustainability Analysis of Energy Access Programs 62 7.1 Introduction 62 7.2 Methodology 62 7.3 Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Supply Options 64 7.4 Sustainability Assessment of Cleaner Cooking Options 71 7.5 Key Findings and Limitations 73 8 Cost Assessment and Technology Choice for Electricity Access 75 8.1 Introduction 75 8.2 Methodology 75 8.3 Electricity Supply Options: Technical Characteristics and Costs 78 8.4 Power Generation Capacity Requirements 81 8.5 Cost of Providing Electricity Access 86 8.6 Key Findings and Limitations 95 9 Cost and Technology Assessments of Cleaner Cooking Options 98 9.1 Introduction 98 9.2 Methodology and Data 98 9.3 Results 101 9.4 Key Findings and Limitations 109 10 Benefits of Energy Access Programs 111 10.1 Introduction 111 10.2 Methodology 111 10.3 Benefits of Electricity Access 113 10.4 Benefits of Access to Cleaner Cooking 121 10.5 Effects on Energy and Electricity Inequality 124 10.6 Key Findings and Limitations 129 11 Affordability of Energy Access Programs and Policy Implications 131 11.1 Introduction 131 11.2 Methodology and Data 131 11.3 Assessment of Present and Future Levels of Energy Burden 136 11.4 Level of Support Needed for Energy Access Affordability 142 11.5 Role of Upfront Cost in Affordability 147 11.6 Key Findings and Final Remarks 148 12 Insights and Implications for Energy Access Program Development 151 12.1 Key Findings and Insights 151 12.2 Policy and Program Implementation Implications 160 12.3 Limitations of the Study 161 References 163 Appendixes 166 Foreword v Figures and Tables Figures 2.1 Elements of the Sustainable Energy Access Planning Framework 5 2.2 Sustainable Energy Access Planning Framework Overall Flow diagram 6 3.1 Map of Pyuthan 8 3.2 Electricity Access Status in Pyuthan District, 2014 (Considering Solar Home Systems) 11 3.3 Electrification of Households by Type of Supply System, 2014 11 3.4 Electricity Access Status in Pyuthan by Village Development Committee 12 3.5 Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector by Fuel Type, 2014 13 3.6 Residential Sector Energy Demand by End Use, 2014 14 3.7 Structure of Fuel consumption for Cooking in Pyuthan, 2014 15 3.8 Structure of Fuel Consumption for Lighting in Pyuthan, 2014 15 3.9 Percentage of Households by Type of Fuel Used for Cooking, 2014 16 5.1 Flow Diagram to Identify Energy-Poor Households 33 5.2 Distribution of Households Based on Their Electricity Consumption Level in Pyuthan, 2014 39 5.3 Percentage of Electricity Poor Households in Pyuthan District (Based on Levels of Useful Energy Consumption) 40 5.4 Distribution of Households by Tier Based on Technology and Fuel Used for Cooking, 2014 41 5.5 Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index by Income Quintile in Pyuthan District 45 5.6 Headcount vs. Intensity of Energy Poverty for Income Quintiles in Pyuthan 45 6.1 Steps in Estimating the Energy Demand of Energy-Poor Households 51 6.2 Estimating the Energy Demand of Non-Energy-Poor Households 52 6.3 Projected Electricity Demand of Pyuthan District in 2017 under the Base and Electricity Access Cases 57 6.4 Projected Electricity Demand of Pyuthan District in 2022 under the Base and Electricity Access Cases 57 6.5 Projected Electricity Demand of Pyuthan District in 2030 under the Base and Electricity Access Cases 58 6.6 Cooking Energy Demand Projection for Pyuthan District under the Base Case 59 7.1 Overall Methodological Flowchart for Sustainability Analysis 63 7.2 Sustainability Comparison of Alternative Electricity Access Options using Multiattribute Average Scoring Approach 67 7.3 Energy Sustainability Index of Electricity Generation Technologies 70 7.4 Sustainability Comparison of Alternative Cooking Access Options 73 8.1 Overall Methodological Framework for Cost Assessment 78 8.2 Incremental Electricity Access Cost for Pyuthan in 2022 (Considering Demand Increment from the Base Case) 93 v vi Figures and Tables 8.3 Incremental Electricity Access Cost for Pyuthan in 2022 (Considering Total Demand Increment from One Level of Access to the Next Higher Level) 94 9.1 Share of Cooking Energy Mix by Technology in Pyuthan, 2014 101 9.2 Incremental Energy Access Cost Curve for Cooking in Pyuthan with Cleaner Biomass Options Only, 2017 106 9.3 Incremental Energy Access Cost Curve for Cooking in Pyuthan with Cleaner Biomass Options Only, 2030 106 9.4 Incremental Energy Access Cost Curve for Cooking in Pyuthan, 2017 with Cleaner Biomass and Nonbiomass Options 108 9.5 Incremental Energy Access Cost Curve for Cooking in Pyuthan, 2030 with Cleaner Biomass and Nonbiomass Options 108 10.1 Lorenz Curves for Electricity Consumption, 2017 127 10.2 Lorenz Curve for Electricity Consumption, 2022 127 10.3 Lorenz Curve for Electricity Consumption, 2030 128 11.1 Upfront Cost of Cooking and Lighting in Different Energy Access Tiers 136 Tables 3.1 Population, Growth Rate, and Household Size in Village Development Committees of Pyuthan District 9 4.1 Village Development Committee Fuelwood Potential in Pyuthan 20 4.2 Village Development Committee Agricultural Residue Potential in Pyuthan 22 4.3 Estimated Animal Dung Production and Associated Energy Potential for each Village Development Committee in Pyuthan District, 2014 24 4.4 Estimated Biogas Potential for each Village Development Committee in Pyuthan District, 2014 28 5.1 Multitier Framework for Household Electricity Access 35 5.2 Definition of Tiers based on Household Electricity Consumption 35 5.3 Multitier Framework for Household Cooking Solutions 36 5.4 Dimensions and Respective Variables with Cut-offs, Including Relative Weights 37 5.5 Average Electricity Consumption of Households at Different Tiers in Pyuthan District, 2014 39 5.6 Useful Cooking Energy Consumption per Capita by Income Decile 42 5.7 Percentage of Energy-Poor Households and their Level of Useful Energy Consumption for Cooking for each Village Development Committee 42 5.8 Categorization of Village Development Committees by Energy Poverty Level based on Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index 44 6.1 Targeted Levels of Electricity Access in Selected Years under Different Scenarios 55 6.2 Energy Consumption by Fuel Type under the Base Case (thousand