Government of Kenya THE 2011/12 SHORT RAINS SEASON ASSESSMENT REPORT Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) Collaborative report of the Kenya Food Security Steering Group: Office of the President, Office of the Prime Minister, Ministries of State for Development of Northern Kenya and other Arid Lands, Agriculture, Livestock Development, Fisheries Development, Water and Irrigation, Public Health and Sanitation, Medical Services, and Education, National Drought Management Authority, WFP/VAM, FEWS NET, FAO, CARE-Kenya, UNICEF, OCHA, Oxfam GB, UNDP, World Vision; with financial support from the Government of Kenya, FAO and WFP. Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Scope of the October-December, 2011 short rains food security assessments ..................... 3 1.2 Findings................................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Short Rains Performance and Prospects for The 2012 Long Rains ...................................... 7 1.4 National Maize Supply Situation .......................................................................................... 8 1.5 Food Price Trends ................................................................................................................. 9 1.6 Options for Response .......................................................................................................... 10 1.7 Priority Interventions .......................................................................................................... 11 2.0 Food Security Assessment Methodology ............................................................................. 12 2.1 Background and Objectives ................................................................................................ 12 2.2 The Approach...................................................................................................................... 13 3.0 Food Security Analysis by Livelihood Cluster ................................................................... 14 3.1 The Northwest Pastoral Livelihood Cluster ........................................................................ 14 3.2 The Eastern Pastoral Livelihood Cluster ............................................................................ 19 3.3 The Agropastoral Livelihood Cluster ................................................................................. 23 3.4 The South Eastern Marginal Agriculture Cluster ............................................................... 28 3.5 The Coastal Marginal Agricultural Livelihood Cluster ...................................................... 33 4.0 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 38 5.0 Proposed Emergency Sectoral Interventions ..................................................................... 39 5.1 Agriculture Sector – Priority Interventions, March-August 2012 ...................................... 39 5.2 Livestock Sector – Priority Interventions, March-August 2012 ......................................... 39 5.3 Water Sector – Priority Interventions, March-August 2012 ............................................... 40 5.4 Education Sector – Priority Interventions, March-August 2012 ........................................ 40 5.5 Health and Nutrition Sector – Priority Interventions, March-August 2012........................ 41 5.6 Markets and Trade Sector – Priority Interventions, March-August 2012 .......................... 41 5.7 Food Sector – Priority interventions, March-August 2012 ................................................. 42 2 1.0 Executive Summary 1.1 Scope of the October-December, 2011 short rains food security assessments The multi-sectoral 2011/12 short rains were conducted by a joint team comprising of the Government of Kenya (GoK), United Nations (UN), Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and district level teams in 29 districts within the pastoral, agro-pastoral, and southeast and coastal marginal agricultural livelihood zones. While taking into account the performance of rainfall in the three preceding seasons, teams assessed impacts of 2011 short rains on water quality and access; crop and livestock production; nutrition and health; markets and trade; and education. Teams also considered impacts of other hazards such as conflicts, floods, crop pests and high food prices, together with ongoing food and non-food interventions, to assess the level of food availability and access at household level. The teams recommended necessary cross sectoral interventions aimed at addressing immediate short term food security needs and at the same time proposed key medium to long term interventions necessary for tackling food insecurity in a sustainable manner. 1.2 Findings 1.2.1 Numbers and categories of the food insecure According to the assessment findings, the food security status of pastoralists, agropastoralists and marginal agricultural farmers has improved considerably after early onset and above average 2011 short rains in many areas. As a result, Emergency food insecurity has ended, and about 2.2 million people are now classified in either the Crisis or Stressed Phases of food insecurity, down from the previous 3.75 million people. The availability of water, browse and pasture has markedly increased, leading to Figure 1.1: Trends in Numbers Requiring Emergency Cross-Sectoral Interventions significant improvement in livestock productivity. The 70-80 percent of 4,000,000 livestock that migrated has returned 3,500,000 and is currently situated in wet 3,000,000 season grazing areas, near 2,500,000 settlements. Households are 2,000,000 1,500,000 accessing milk though quantities are people of Number below normal as most livestock are 1,000,000 in gestation. The harvesting of short 500,000 rains crops has just concluded 0 March March March March March March leading to improved food access, March August August August August August August particularly in the southeast and 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 coastal marginal agricultural Source: KFSSG lowlands and the agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Conflict incidences over resources have markedly declined in many places. Ongoing interventions that have contributed to improvements in food security include food distribution to 3.75 million people by World Food Program (WFP) through general food distribution, food for assets, cash for assets and unconditional cash transfer modalities; school feeding to 584,000 pupils; supplementary feeding to 100,000 beneficiaries; blanket supplementary feeding program targeting 586,000; and hunger safety net to 60,000 households. 3 The Government and other non-governmental organizations are also providing other assistance programs including food to the food insecure populations. Figure 1.1 shows the trend of population requiring emergency assistance since 2006. Detailed analyses of the factors that have influenced changes in food security classification are in the sections that follow. 1.2.2 Areas classified in the Crisis Phase (IPC Phase 3) About 250,000 people are classified in the Crisis Phase. The households that are classified in the Crisis Phase are described as experiencing significant food consumption gaps with high or above usual rate of malnutrition. Alternatively, household groups in Crisis are marginally able to meet minimum food needs, only with irreversible coping strategies such as liquidating livelihood assets or diverting expenses from essential non-food items. According to the assessment findings, household groups in the Crisis Phase are situated in localized areas of northeastern and northwestern pastoral including Wajir, Mandera, Moyale, Marsabit, Turkana, Tana River and Mwingi as shown in figure 1.2. Though household groups in Crisis received above average rains (Figure 1.3) that led to significant improvements in availability of pasture, browse and water, they have not been able to benefit from enhanced livestock productivity due to low livestock asset holdings. The majority of pastoralists in Crisis include the very poor that usually have low livestock holdings, which have declined by 20-30 percent due to heightened sales and losses through mortalities following successive droughts between 2006 and 2011, for instance in Ijara, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa. Affected households are only able to access less than half a liter of milk per day, compared to 2-3 liters in normal times. Meanwhile, improvements in households purchasing capacities, due to the 90-130 percent above average livestock prices, is not benefiting households in Crisis that are currently building their herds rather than selling livestock. Other factors that are driving the Crisis level of food insecurity in the northeast pastoral are conflicts, insecurity and crop failure in the agro-pastoral zones located in Wajir and Mandera. Insecurity along the Kenya-Somalia border is disrupting market supply routes leading to below normal supply of food and other important items. In addition, transport and transaction costs have increased considerably due to high risk associated with operating within the zone. Conflicts have displaced about 4,200 households from northeast Moyale, into southern Ethiopia and northwest Wajir. The displaced households have increased pressure on water and grazing resources in areas where they have fled to, leading to