Valuing the Tarkine: A Systematic Quantification of Optimal Land Use and Potential Conflict Compromise by Jennifer Diana Evans BA (Env. des.), BArch. Hons. Institute for Regional Development and School of Land and Food A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Tasmania, October 2016 Declaration of originality This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for a degree or diploma by the University or any other institution, except by way of background information and duly acknowledged in the thesis, and to the best of my knowledge and belief no material previously published or written by another person except where due acknowledgement is made in the text of the thesis, nor does the thesis contain any material that infringes copyright. Signature Jennifer Diana Evans, BA (Env. des.), BArch. Hons. Date 26 October, 2016 ii Statement of Authority of Access This thesis may be made available for loan and limited copying and communication in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. Signature Jennifer Diana Evans, BA (Env. des.), BArch. Hons. Date 26 October, 2016 iii Statement of Ethical Conduct The research associated with this thesis abides by the international and Australian codes on human and animal experimentation, the guidelines by the Australian Government’s Office of the Gene Technology Regulator and the rulings of the Safety, Ethics and Institutional Biosafety Committees of the University. Signature: Jennifer Diana Evans, BA (Env. des.), BArch. Hons. Date: 26 October, 2016 iv Abstract Ecosystems continue to deplete as global demand for natural resources force land use change and cause environmental conflict. Optimal land use that considers both the significance of ecosystems and the sustainable human consumption of natural resources is required. Thus, the primary aim of the thesis was to develop an integrated approach to resolving land use conflict using the Tarkine as an exemplar. Land use change and environmental conflict are influenced by complex socio-economic factors and necessitate systematic resolution practices that address deep disagreement on values. This thesis fills a research gap by providing a systematic quantification of optimal land use and potential conflict compromise that integrates attitudes, preferences and economic values. The spatial patterns of optimal land use in the Tarkine are established using two approaches: a) the a priori approach to determine the different levels of significance and the relative worth of values and b) the a posteriori approach to determine the importance of values to people. The heritage importance of conservation values in the Tarkine was determined using their level of significance, legal recognition of importance, area in relation to Tasmania, Australia and the world, rarity, and distinctiveness. Aboriginal cultural heritage, coastal interdigitation, rainforest river landscapes and wild Dasyuridae habitats may meet criteria for World Heritage listing. Aboriginal cultural heritage, biodiversity and wilderness values may increase in the future. The international significance of the Aboriginal cultural landscape in the Tarkine has not been fully determined. Cost-benefit analysis, variable discount rates, time frames and output multipliers were used to calculate economic values. There is high economic potential for carbon and tourism development in the Tarkine, and localised potential for mining. However, the application of output multipliers changes the results creating large areas of forest with greater economic value than tourism and carbon combined. A novel reciprocal triangulation of data using attitudes and participant mapping found that conflict is multidimensional; that informed discussion of values leads to increased willingness to compromise potential outcomes; and, that variation in such willingness is predictable. A practical example suggests a way forward to resolve conflict in the Tarkine through applying a second iteration of the research findings to quantify future trade-offs and advance conflict resolution processes. v Acknowledgments I wish to express my sincerest appreciation to the many people who have assisted me throughout the course of my PhD. Foremost, I give my deepest gratitude to Distinguished Professor Jamie Kirkpatrick, whose exemplary supervision, rigorous questioning and compassionate encouragement resulted in a collaboration of ideas and enduring friendship. He has shown me a path of new possibilities and a way of thinking that inspired me and maintained my belief in the importance of the research. I would also like to especially thank Dr Kerry Bridle for her honest and insightful cosupervison. She has been an excellent sounding board; readily challenged my assumptions, and gave me sincere pastoral care and friendship that sustained me through the years of my PhD journey. Dr Bridle was of enormous assistance with the community workshops. I am grateful for the quality supervision of Professor Janelle Allison. Professor Allison asked the big questions, kept my work on track and gave me invaluable advice on developing my skills in meaningful writing. Dr Fleur Fallon is acknowledged as my early supervisor in the initial establishment of the scope of the research. Thank you goes to Associate Professor Robyn Eversole, for her support and guidance as my graduate research coordinator, providing a kind ear and gentle timely persuasion when needed. Sharon Dennis was of great assistance with her cultural guidance in the engagement of the Tasmanian Aboriginal community and individuals. She facilitated respectful research relationships with Tasmanian Aboriginal people and provided cultural debriefing with participants, for which I am very grateful. I would like to thank Karen Eyles for helping me find my way around ArcGIS, teaching me creative and flexible ways to harness its power and provoking me to think about what I was trying to achieve. Thank you to Dr Rohan Nelson for his comments on a draft manuscript and to Dr Christine Angel for her editing and fine attention to detail on corrections to this thesis. vi This research project was funded by the Elite Research Scholarship program of the University of Tasmania, through the Institute for Regional Development at the Cradle Coast Campus. I would also like to thank Dr Bob Mesibov, Dr Ian McFarlane, Dr Jim Stockton, Dr Richard Donaghey, Dr Pete Hay, Associate Professor Natasha Cica, Dr Nicholas Clements, Geoff Coles and David Green for their interest in the research, sharing of their knowledge and collegial discussions. A special thank you goes to the research participants, who dedicated a day out of their lives to contribute to the research and participated in the workshops with goodwill and honesty. Thanks to the Parks and Wildlife Service Tasmania, Forestry Tasmania, Cradle Coast NRM, the Wilderness Society and Save the Tarkine, who supported the research by dedicating staff time to participate. Thank you to my colleagues at the Institute for Regional Development: Dr Cherie Hawkins and Dr Clayton Hawkins for their mentoring and assistance in navigating the many phases of my PhD experience. Thanks to my fellow PhD candidates at the Institute for Regional Development: Mary Duniam, Emma Lee and Sahar Shahpari for your laughter, passion, inspiring dedication and friendship. Finally, heartfelt thanks goes to my mother Kathleen, father Maurice, and son Evan for their steadfast encouragement and belief in me, and accepting the sacrifices I made to complete this PhD. Biggest thank you to my partner Jen, for the countless hours of companionship during our exploration of the Tarkine that inspired this PhD, and for her sacrifices and support while on this PhD journey. vii Table of Contents Declaration of originality ii Statement of Authority of Access iii Statement of Ethical Conduct iv Abstract v Acknowledgments vi Table of Contents viii List of Figures and Tables xiii List of Plates xix List of Abbreviations xxi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.1.1 Environmental conflicts and land use change 1 1.1.2 Environmental conflict in the Tarkine 2 1.1.3 Current approaches to resolving land use conflict 7 1.1.4 Addressing the research gap using the Tarkine as a case study 8 1.2 Research aims and structure 10 1.3 Conceptual context 12 1.4 Methodological context 14 1.5 Structure of thesis 17 Chapter 2 Assessing the heritage importance of conservation values in the Tarkine 20 2.1 Chapter overview 20 2.2 Introduction 20 2.3 Methods 25 viii 2.3.1 Identifying conservation values in the Tarkine 25 2.3.2 Determining levels of significance 25 2.4 Results 40 2.4.1 Internationally significant conservation values 40 2.4.2 Nationally significant conservation values 41 2.4.3 Conservation values of State significance 42 2.4.4 Regionally significant conservation values 42 2.4.5 Concentrated areas of conservation values 42 2.4.6 Combined significance and concentration of conservation values 52 2.5 Discussion 54 2.5.1 World Heritage significance of conservation values 54 2.5.2 Contestation of wilderness values and their significance 56 2.5.3 Representation of values using the simple additive weighted method 57 2.5.4 Aboriginal cultural landscape values 58 Chapter 3 Determining the pattern of optimal economic use in the Tarkine 60 3.1 Chapter overview 60 3.2 Introduction 60 3.3 Methods 62 3.3.1 Data collection 62 3.3.2 Data analysis 63 3.3.3 Valuing the existing mineral resource 73 3.3.4 Identifying economic value of prospective mineral areas 77 3.3.5 Prospective