Investigation into the Scope for the Transport Sector to Switch to Electric Vehicles and Plug- in Hybrid Vehicles October 2008 Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform: Department for Transport Investigation into the Scope for the Transport Sector to Switch to Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles October 2008 This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party BERR & DfT Investigation into the Scope for the Transport Sector to Switch to Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Contents Page Executive Summary..............................................................................................................................i Key Findings.........................................................................................................................................i Recommendations..............................................................................................................................iii 1Introduction 1 1.1Background ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2Overview of Electric Vehicle Technology Development ..................................................... 3 1.3The Current UK Market ..................................................................................................... 3 2Scenarios 5 2.1Summary ........................................................................................................................... 5 2.2Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.3General Discussion – Scenarios ........................................................................................ 6 2.4Uptake Scenarios – Business As Usual ............................................................................ 6 2.5Mid-Range Scenario .......................................................................................................... 8 2.6Uptake Scenario – High-Range ......................................................................................... 9 2.7Uptake Scenario – Extreme Range ................................................................................. 11 3Comparison of Life Cycle Emissions and Environmental Impacts of EVs and ICVs 13 3.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 13 3.2Climate and Air Quality Impacts ...................................................................................... 14 3.3Resources and Waste ..................................................................................................... 19 3.4Impacts to Water ............................................................................................................. 23 3.5Impacts to People ............................................................................................................ 24 3.6Review ............................................................................................................................. 26 4Battery Technology 28 4.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 28 4.2Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 28 4.3Cost and Performance Requirements for EVs and PHEVs ............................................. 28 4.4Available Battery Technologies ....................................................................................... 30 4.5Lithium-ion Battery Technology – Introduction ................................................................. 31 4.6Lithium-ion Battery Technology – Cell Chemistry ............................................................ 32 4.7Lithium-ion Battery Technology – Safety ......................................................................... 32 4.8Lithium-ion Battery Technology – Current and Projected Cost ........................................ 33 4.9Lithium-ion Battery Technology – Potential for Cost Reduction ....................................... 34 4.10Lithium-ion Battery Technology – Lifetime and Performance ........................................ 35 4.11Implications for the UK Battery Sector ........................................................................... 36 5Charging Infrastructure 38 5.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 38 BERR & DfT Investigation into the Scope for the Transport Sector to Switch to Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles 5.2Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 38 5.3Home Charging ............................................................................................................... 38 5.4Public Charging Points .................................................................................................... 38 5.5Commercial Vehicle – Depot Charging ............................................................................ 38 5.6Fast Charging Stations .................................................................................................... 39 5.7Battery Exchange ............................................................................................................ 39 6Electricity Generation and Grid Impacts 40 6.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 40 6.2Operation of the Grid System .......................................................................................... 40 6.3Connection to Electricity Distribution Network ................................................................. 42 6.4Grid Impact ...................................................................................................................... 42 6.5Electricity Demand – discussion ...................................................................................... 43 6.6Vehicle Storage Capacity ................................................................................................ 44 6.7Energy Costs ................................................................................................................... 45 7UK Business Opportunities 47 7.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 47 7.2Overview ......................................................................................................................... 47 7.3Existing UK EV & PHEV Expertise .................................................................................. 48 7.4UK Business Opportunities .............................................................................................. 49 7.5Potential Consequences of Inaction ................................................................................ 50 8Barriers and Incentives 52 8.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 52 8.2Barriers ............................................................................................................................ 52 8.3Incentives ........................................................................................................................ 56 9Adoption Routes 60 9.1Summary ......................................................................................................................... 60 9.2Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 60 9.3Approaches to Electric Vehicle Introduction .................................................................... 60 10Findings 66 11Recommendations 68 12Glossary 71 Appendices Life Cycle Assessment Data Life Cycle of a Lithium Ion Battery Key Players European & World, with a UK Presence Companies Contacted in this Study V2G - Vehicle to Grid BERR & DfT Investigation into the Scope for the Transport Sector to Switch to Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles BERR & DfT Investigation into the Scope for the Transport Sector to Switch to Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Executive Summary This study, jointly undertaken by Arup and Cenex on behalf of the Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) and the Department for Transport (DfT), has investigated the scope for the transport sector to switch to vehicles powered through electricity from the grid in the period until 2030. Road based transport currently accounts for approximately 22 per cent of the UK CO2 emissions and therefore reducing the reliance on carbon based fuels in this sector is seen as a priority. As highlighted in the King Review of Low-Carbon Cars, road based CO2 emissions reductions will come from a number of different sources including the development of alternative fuels such as hydrogen, continuing improvements in internal combustion engine efficiency and the wider rollout of hybrid powertrains, and lightweighting of vehicles. The report was commissioned to provide a better understanding of the contribution that the