Public Disclosure Authorized CAMBODIA ECONOMIC WATCH Public Disclosure Authorized OCTOBER 2008 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ECONOMIC INSTITUTE of CAMBODIA Research Director : Sok Hach Project Team Leaders : Neou Seiha English Editor : Alanna Jorde Authors : Neou Seiha Chhun Dalin TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Abbreviations and Acronyms iii List of Tables and Figures v Foreword vi Executive Summary vii Part I: Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 1 1. Cambodian Economic Growth 3 1.1. Agriculture 4 1.2. Industry 6 1.3. Service 8 2. Trade, Investment and Productivity 11 2.1. External Trade and Capital Movements 11 2.2. Private Investment and Stocks of Capital 13 2.3. Productivity 14 3. Price and Monetary Development 17 3.1. Inflation 17 3.2. Exchange rate 18 3.3. Money supply 19 3.4. Interest rate 20 4. Fiscal Development and External Debt 23 4.1. Budget Revenue 23 4.2. Budget Expenditure 24 4.3. Budget Financing and External Debt 26 5. Labor Force, Incomes, and Poverty 29 5.1. Employment 29 5.2. Incomes 30 5.3. Poverty 30 EIC - Cambodia Economic Watch - October 2008 i Part II: Structural Reforms: Current Implementation and Prospects 33 6. Banking and Financial Sector Reform 35 6.1. Banking and Non Bank Finance 35 6.2. Microfinance 37 7. Public Financial Management Reform 39 7.1. Reform Outcomes: Revenue Collection and Budget Disbursement 39 7.2. Overall PFMRP Revisited and Process for Platform 2 40 8. Trade Reform 45 8.1. Economic Integration 45 8.2. Trade Facilitation 47 9. Public Administrative Reform 49 9.1. Central Administration Reform 49 9.2. Sub-National Administrative Reform 50 10. Legal and Judicial Reform 53 10.1. Achievements and Progress of Legal Reform 53 10.2. Judicial and Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) 54 11. Land and Natural Resource Reform 57 11.1. Land Reform 57 11.2. Forestry Reform 58 11.3. Fisheries Reform 59 Bibliographic References Appendix 1: Key Economic Indicators 63 Appendix 2: Key Structure Reforms 77 ii EIC - Cambodia Economic Watch - October 2008 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADR Alternative Dispute Resolution AEC ASEAN Economic Community ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nation BSP Budget Strategic Plan CAMEX Cambodia Stock Exchange Market CAR Council for Administrative Reform CDC Council for the Development of Cambodia CDRI Cambodia Development Resource Institute CED Custom Excise Department CIS Credit Information Sharing CLJR Council for Legal and Judicial Reform CMA Cambodia Microfinance Association CMDG Cambodia Millennium Development Goals COBRA Cambodian Offsite Bank Reporting for prompt corrective Action CoM Council of Minister CR Cambodian Riel CSES Cambodia Socio Economic Survey D&D Decentralization and Deconcentration EIC Economic Institute of Cambodia ELC Economic Land Concession EU European Union FA Fishery Administration FMIS Establishment of Financial Management Information System FSDS Financial Sector Development Strategy GDCC Government-Donor Coordination Committee GDP Gross Domestic Product HRD Human Resource Development HRM Human Resource Management HRMIS Human Resource Management Information System ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund JMI Joint Government-Donors Monitoring Indicators MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries MBPI Merit Based Pay Initiative MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance MFI Microfinance Institutions MIS Management Information System MLMUPC Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning, EIC - Cambodia Economic Watch - October 2008 iii and Construction MoC Ministry of Commerce MoH Ministry of Health MoJ Ministry of Justice NA National Assembly NBC National Bank of Cambodia NCDD National Committee for D&D NIS National Institute of Statistics NLDA National Authority for Land Dispute Resolution NSDP National Strategic Development Plan OWOs One-Window Offices PFMRP Public Financial Management Reform Program PMG Priority Mission Group PPD Public Procurement Department RGC Royal Government of Cambodia RSM Royal School of Magistracy SAD Single Administrative Document SCM Supreme Council of Magistracy SSC-TD&TR Sub-Steering Committee on Trade Development and Trade-Related Investment TFCP Trade Facilitation and Competitiveness Project TWGFE Technical Group on Forestry and Environment VND Vietnam Dong WB World Bank WEF World Economic Forum WTO World Trade Organization iv EIC - Cambodia Economic Watch - October 2008 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Cambodia's Real GDP Growth by Sector (%, 2000 prices) Table 1.2: Trends in the Agriculture Sector (% increase, 2000 prices) Table 1.3: Trends of Industry Sectors (% increase, 2000 prices) Table 1.4: Trends of Service Sectors (% increase, 2000 prices) Table 2.1: Cambodia's Balance of Payments (Million of US Dollar) Table 2.2: Approved Private Investment Projects* Table 2.3: Productivity of Workers (% Increase, US$2000 price) Table 3.1: Cambodia’s Monetary Survey (Billions of Riel) Table 3.2: Cambodia’s Interest Rate (% per annum, end of period) Table 4.1: Cambodia’s Central Government Revenue (Billion of riel) Table 4.2: Cambodia’s Central Government Expenditure (Billions of Riel) Table 4.3: Cambodia’s Financing Budget (Billion of Riel) Table 5.1: Cambodia's Population and Labor Force (000's) Table 6.1: Interest Rates as of June 2008 Table 6.2: Overall Achievements in Banking Sector, Insurance Industry, and Financial Market (As of August 2008) Table 7.1: Indicators Tracking PFMRP Progress Table 7.2: PFM Objectives and Key Indicators Table 8.1: Status of Remaining WTO-related Laws Table 8.2: Trading Across Borders Table 10.1: Adopted Legal Texts in Third Legislature by the NA Table 10.2: Progress on the Remaining Fundamental Draft Laws LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Cambodia’s Consumer Price Index (December 2002=100) Figure 3.2: Cambodian riel against US$, Thai baht, and Vietnamese dong (December 2002=100) EIC - Cambodia Economic Watch - October 2008 v FOREWORD With the aim of providing a broad-based economic analysis to policy makers and stakeholders, the Economic Institute of Cambodia (EIC) has great pleasure in presenting the latest issue of “Cambodia Economic Watch”. This EIC series of publications not only serves as a policy-oriented research paper, but also as a reference for all readers who wish to gain a snapshot of the Cambodian economy or monitor its development. As in previous issues, this edition presents the latest economic performance and prospects based on the analysis of current data from many reliable sources. It takes an in-depth look at the trends of the main economic indicators and the progress of reform policies. It also highlights the urgent measures that need to be taken to address any of the problems encountered. In brief, two main phenomena have been noted in 2008. Firstly, the double digit economic growth rate could not be maintained due to slower growth expected for garment industry and negative growth rate anticipated for construction sector; despite tourism sector and financial sector remain relatively strong. These trends are likely to carry over 2009, and thus a lower economic growth rate is also expected accordantly. Secondly, inflation rate is doubled to that of 2007 because of soar in food prices and impressive increase in transportation, household good and medical care. Increase of prices of crude oil and food price in the international market and depreciation of the US dollar, as well as dependency on imported consumer goods, are main reasons for this huge inflation. We would like to thank the World Bank for its generous support. Special thanks to Chea Huot and his team for their invaluable comments, to Dane Hor, Chhim Rothsothea, and EIC research assistants for their excellent assistance, to all EIC staff for their enthusiasm, and to other institutions and individuals too numerous to list. Sok Hach, Director Economic Institute of Cambodia vi EIC - Cambodia Economic Watch - October 2008 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic Growth Besides the fourth consecutive year of double digit economic growth realized in 2007, data from 2005 to 2007 also showed a successive decline in the rate of economic growth in Cambodia from 13.3 percent in 2005 to 10.2 percent in 2007. Available data for the first nine months of 2008 and current local and global economic trends suggest that Cambodia’s economic growth is likely to continue to slow significantly in 2008. Cambodia’s two main economic growth-supporting industries, garments and construction, are continuing their downward trend in 2008. External factors, such as fears of a recession in the US and the anticipated end of safeguarding measures, which were imposed by the US and EU against Chinese exports, are adversely affecting the growth of Cambodia’s garment industry. Residential construction growth is expected to slow to a negative rate in 2008 and spark bubble risks, given drops in prices expected for residential construction and land, and housing loan credit restrictions. In the meantime, the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Cambodia is continuing to increase steadily, but at a slightly slower pace because of the global economic slowdown as well as current dispute along Thai and Cambodian border. The financial sector is still booming. And, the agricultural sector remains strong thanks to optimal weather conditions and expanding markets for agro-products. Still, investment in agro-industry has remained slim in 2008. In combination with soaring prices for imported raw materials and consumer goods during the year, Cambodia is expected to enjoy only moderate economic growth of 7 percent in 2008, 3.2 percent-point lower than that of 2007. The downward trend is likely to carry over to 2009, when the economic growth rate is expected to slow to about 6 percent. The anticipated launch of a Cambodia Stock Exchange Market and exploitation of the extractive industries such as oil and gas continue to attract attention and draw big investors to Cambodia. Cambodia’s economic growth could be speeded up if significant progress is made in critical reforms. These reforms, together with effective anti-corruption policies, would improve the economic and investment environment and potentially spur even higher economic growth.