An MIT Energy Initiative Workshop Report MIT-CSIS ENERGY-WATER-LAND NEXUS WORKSHOP May 6–7, 2013 An MIT Energy Initiative Workshop Report MIT-CSIS ENERGY-WATER-LAND NEXUS WORKSHOP MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 1 2 MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 PREFACE About the MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop The availability of water and land resources is increasingly recognized as one of the next big issues facing the energy industry. On May 6 and 7, 2013, the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) held an Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop at the Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington, DC. The goal for the workshop was to develop a research agenda around the energy-water-land nexus, and to identify the important challenges to be addressed through university, industry, and government collaboration. The workshop was hosted by MITEI’s Director, Professor Robert Armstrong, and Dr. Francis O’Sullivan, MITEI Director for Research and Analysis. The workshop brought together the expertise and insights of nearly 200 researchers from many of the 13 universities that have been partners in BP’s Energy Sustainability Challenge (ESC) program, along with other leading experts with knowledge and understanding of the technology, economics, policy, and systems issues that accompany the energy-water-land nexus. This event grew out of the ESC program, a multi-year, multi-university research program, funded by MITEI Founding Member BP. About the ESC In 2010, BP initiated the ESC Program to study the linkages between energy production, energy use and natural resources — particularly water, land, and minerals. The central goal of ESC has been to address the question: How will natural resource constraints affect the way we produce and use energy in the future? This work was motivated by the realization that future commercial and policy decision making on issues concerning the energy-water-land nexus needed a very strong technical base of understanding. BP’s ESC Program, in collaboration with 13 university research partners, including MIT, Princeton, San Diego, Berkeley, Illinois, Texas, Tsinghua, Sao Paolo, and Cambridge University, has worked to develop this enhanced technical understanding of the issues pertaining to the energy-water-land nexus. Findings have been made available to practitioners through peer-reviewed journal publications and a series of BP-published handbooks, as well as through a range of tools and models. For more information about BP’s ESC Program, visit http://www.bp.com/energysustainabilitychallenge. About MITEI MITEI pairs MIT’s world-class research teams with key players across the innovation spectrum to help accomplish two important goals: improving today’s energy systems and transforming tomorrow’s global energy marketplace. MITEI is also a resource for industry, policy makers, and the public — providing unbiased analysis and service as an honest broker for industry and government. MITEI’s educational offerings combine depth with multidiscipline breadth, making MIT’s campus an energy-learning laboratory. Through research, analysis, and education, MITEI is working to fi nd answers that reinvent our energy world. For more information about MITEI, visit http://mitei.mit.edu. MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS MITEI wishes to thank BP and the Center for Strategic International Studies for their generous support of the MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop. MITEI also thanks the moderators, panelists, and participants who fi lled this day-and-a-half program with spirited discussion, thought-provoking debate, and substantive information. 4 MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 CONTENTS –3 PREFACE REPORT ON MIT-CSIS ENERGY-WATER-LAND NEXUS WORKSHOP –7 INTRODUCTION KEY ISSUES AND THEMES –9 SESSION 1 The energy sustainability challenge Keynote Address: Dr. Ellen Williams, BP 12 SESSION 2 Climate change and what it means for regional water resources and land availability Session Keynote: Dr. John Reilly, MIT Joint Program 15 SESSION 3 Global change and the challenges of supporting a growing planet Session Keynote: Dr. Thomas Hertel, Purdue University 18 SESSION 4 The governance of water in resource-stressed regions – Case studies on the US Southwest, China, and the Middle East Session Keynote: Dr. Barton Thompson, Stanford University and Dr. David Victor, University of California San Diego 22 SESSION 5 Water and electricity Session Keynote: Dr. Bryan Hannegan, EPRI 24 SESSION 6 The future of biofuel and food production in the context of climate change and emerging resource stresses Session Keynote: Dr. Heather Youngs, Energy Biosciences Institute, UC Berkeley, CA 26 SESSION 7 Water and contemporary hydrocarbon production Session Keynote: Dr. Francis O’Sullivan, MIT 30 SESSION 8 Defi ning the research agenda for the energy-water-land nexus 32 WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS 34 KEYNOTE SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES 38 APPENDICES: White papers by keynote speakers MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 5 6 MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop INTRODUCTION Francis O’Sullivan and Raanan Miller, MIT Energy Initiative Population growth and rising income levels will present a major challenge for mankind in meeting the world’s growing energy needs over the coming decades. The scale of the challenge is espe- cially apparent when the expanding energy demand is viewed in the context of the fi nite, increas- ingly expensive, and carbon-polluting fossil resources that support the majority of today’s energy supply. The simple availability and cost of energy resources are just part of an even more com- plex story. Contemporary energy production is dependent on other natural resources, particularly water, land, and non-energy resource minerals. Serious questions arise regarding the ways that this expanding energy demand will impact these resources going forward. The energy system’s impact on water, particularly fresh water, and land is further complicated by climate change, which is affecting fresh water availability and land productivity across multiple spatial scales, and which is, of course, ultimately being driven by carbon emissions from the energy system. Although much of the contemporary discussion regarding the energy-water-land nexus is focused on future challenges, many parts of the world are seeing water and land resources that are already stressed, impacting our ability to produce energy. The 2014 US National Climate Assessment report highlights how climate change is negatively affecting both water availability and land productivity across the United States. It points out that, for the case of water particu- larly, droughts and increasing stress levels are already impacting our nation’s ability to produce energy. The report also highlights the risks to the energy infrastructure that are emerging as a result of climate change. Other regions of the world are also facing challenges today at the energy-water-land nexus. Dramatic economic growth coupled with China’s expanding and migrating population is placing an increasingly greater demand on its energy system and on the limited fresh water resources in the eastern regions of the country. Unconventional gas production has recently provided a tangible example of an energy-water confl ict in China. While much of China is arid, competing water demand from non-energy users might prompt the government to place limits on the amount of unconventional gas resource in the Szechwan Basin that can be exploited over the coming years. Given that in almost every conceivable future scenario global energy demand increases, it is likely that energy-related water demand also will grow. If current fossil-based energy pathways and tech nology paradigms continue to dominate supply as analysis suggests, then energy’s water needs will likely rise faster than demand for energy itself, given that future production will be forced to move to lower-quality, more water-intensive, “unconventional” resource types. In important energy-producing regions which are already — or projected to become — water stressed, it seems likely that, in the future, energy production’s water demands will come into greater confl ict with the water demands of other sectors, particularly those of agriculture and municipalities. As it was made clear during the workshop, history teaches that crises relating to natural resources are rarely addressed effectively in a proactive, forward-looking manner. A crisis typically needs to materialize before meaningful policy action is taken. It seems very likely that this scenario will play out in the case of water for energy, particularly in countries without central MIT Energy Initiative Report on MIT-CSIS Energy-Water-Land Nexus Workshop | May 6–7, 2013 7 control and overarching regulatory structures for water management, and where non-energy water users represent powerful regional political constituencies. As such, the energy sector must proactively focus on reducing its water intensity. This is espe- cially necessary given the likelihood of increased confl ict surrounding access to water resources; the likelihood that effective policy will not be implemented nor regulatory action taken prior to a crisis manifesting, see Session 4; and the energy sector’s (sometimes) limited political infl uence relative to other major water users. Fortunately, technology can provide an effective pathway to lower water intensity. These technologies must also be economically compelling for them to be adopted. Today, technologies exist that can dramatically reduce the water requirements of major energy pathways; however, in many instances, the relative economics of these solutions means that operators choose not to implement them. Take, for example, thermal-based electricity generation. Today’s thermal plants (particularly in the United States) use once-through or tower- cooled systems to shed heat as part of their thermodynamic cycles.