BUYING PEACE: AMNESTY AS A TOOL IN ENDING CIVIL WARS Lesley-Ann Daniels DOCTORAL THESIS UPF 2015 THESIS DIRECTOR Dr Abel Escribà-Folch DEPARTMENT: POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ii Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisor, Abel Escribà-Folch, for his patience through all the U-turns, his common-sense through the draft (and daft) ideas, and his excellent insights and support through everything. I also extend my gratitude to the following: o The Institut Català Internacional per la Pau (ICIP) and the Catalan government for the grant that has supported me through these years; o My university, the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), for grants over the years to do fieldwork and attend conferences. I am also grateful for the wide number of top- quality training courses I have been able to attend. They all helped make me a better researcher; o The Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals (IBEI) for providing me with a stimulating and supportive working environment and for access to inspirational colleagues; o Louise Mallinder for generously sharing the data from her Amnesty Laws Database; o Helga Malmin Binningsbø, Miriam Bradley, Aina Gallego, Scott Gates, and Cyanne Loyle who have generously given of their time to comment on earlier drafts; o Laia Balcells, Derek Beach, Mark Freeman, Rafael Grasa, Stathis N. Kalyvas, Yannis Karagiannis, Arie Kruglanski, Louise Mallinder, Diego Muro, Leigh A. Payne, and Jack L. Snyder for discussion of early ideas; o Rafael Grasa for support and contacts for the field work in Colombia; o My colleagues at UPF who have helped with technical queries and commented on earlier drafts at the thesis seminars, especially Lea Pessin. I particularly thank Sanjin Uležić for moral support; o Elsy Morales and Adalberto Narvaez for their hospitality during my stay in Colombia, and to Jackeline Narvaez for generously making it possible. o Finally, I thank Gustau Catalan since I owe him many, for endless support mixed with reality checks. And a huge thank you to Alex and Marina, who have suffered from a missing mother, sometimes physically, sometimes mentally, more often than they wanted. You have been great. iii iv Abstract This thesis examines the use of amnesty as a tool for ending civil wars. The thesis is innovative in its focus on amnesties during civil wars and their impact on conflict termination. I examine the conditions under which governments grant amnesties, and the various mechanisms through which amnesty acts as an incentive to stop fighting. I then study how international laws and norms against impunity for atrocious crimes influences the use of amnesty. The thesis combines in-depth quantitative and qualitative analysis by using statistical analysis of all conflict episodes from 1975-2011, as well as an intensive study of the peace negotiations in Colombia. The thesis has a number of innovative findings. I show that governments are more likely to use amnesty as an instrument of war, and they use it to pick off weaker groups with whom it is easier to settle. Secondly, I find that amnesties are effective both as a direct incentive, but also because they give the government military advantages. Thirdly, I demonstrate that governments balance amnesty against other transitional justice measures to avoid giving political concessions. The thesis makes various contributions to different literatures. To the transitional justice literature, I bring a comprehensive study of amnesty during civil war, and empirical findings on its determinants and effectiveness. To the civil war literature, I bring a theory of amnesty as an incentive in conflict termination, and a model of the impact of legal intervention as an external action. Overall, this thesis offers both a comprehensive study and theoretical insights into the use of amnesty during civil war. v Resum Aquesta tesis examina la utilització d’amnisties com a eines per a finalitzar guerres civils. La tesis és innovadora pel seu enfoc específic sobre amnisties en guerres civils i el seu impacte en la finalització del conflicte. Examino les condicions sota les quals els goberns atorguen amnisties, així com els mecanismes pels quals les amnisties actúen com a incentiu per deixar la lluita. A continuació estudio com les lleis i normatives internacionals contra la impunitat per atrocitats contra la humanitat influeix sobre l’us de les amnisties. La tesis combina anàlisis en profunditat quantitatius i qualitatius, incloent una anàlisis estadística de tots els episodis de conflicte en el període 1975-2011, així com un estudi a fons de les negociacions de pau a Colòmbia. Aquesta tesis presenta resultats innovadors. Demostro que els governs són proclius a fer servir les amnisties com a armes de guerra, amb la intenció de dividir i separar els grups rivals més febles, amb els quals és més fàcil arribar a acords. En segon lloc, trobo que les amnisties efectivament funcionen no sols com a incentius directes, sinò també perquè dónen avantatges militars als governs. En tercer lloc, demostro que els govern utilitzen les amnisties com una mesura més per a evitar concessions polítiques més costoses. Aquesta tesis contribueix a dues branques de la bibliografia política. A l’àrea de justícia transicional, hi aporto un estudi exhaustiu de les amnisties en guerres civils, amb resultats empírics sobre els seus factors determinants i efectivitat. A la literatura en guerres civils, hi aporto una teoria sobre la utilització d’amnisties com a eines en la terminació de conflictes, i un model sobre l’impacte de les intervencions legals externes. En conjunt, aquesta tesis presenta un estudi a fons i noves idees teòriques sobre l’us d’amnisties en guerres civils. vi Table of contents Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. iii Abstract .................................................................................................................................. v Resum ................................................................................................................................... vi Table of contents .................................................................................................................. vii Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 Amnesties as a tool in ending civil war ............................................................................. 1 What is amnesty? ............................................................................................................... 3 Justification for the research .............................................................................................. 6 The literature on amnesty................................................................................................. 10 Reviewing the argument .................................................................................................. 16 Paper 1 ..................................................................................................................................... 23 Instrument of war, instrument of peace: The strategic use of amnesty during civil wars ....... 25 Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 25 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 26 Theoretical framework ..................................................................................................... 28 Data and methods ............................................................................................................. 35 Results .............................................................................................................................. 39 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 45 Paper 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 47 Buying Peace: Can Amnesty to Rebels during Civil Wars Reduce or End Conflict? ............. 49 Abstract ............................................................................................................................ 49 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 50 Theoretical Framework .................................................................................................... 52 Data and methods ............................................................................................................. 58 vii Results .............................................................................................................................. 63 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 74 Paper 3 ..................................................................................................................................... 77 The invisible seat at the table: Negotiating peace under the shadow of the International Criminal Court ......................................................................................................................... 79 Abstract ...........................................................................................................................