RESEARCH North Sydney awaits the completion Gross face rents in North Sydney Investment volumes across the of over 145,000 sq m of new office continued to rise in conjunction with North Shore markets totalled $2.14 space, which will bolster absorption falling incentives over the past 12 billion, with over 80% of capital levels and deliver new entrants to months. The short term supply drought coming from offshore buyers in the the market over the next two years. will see rental growth remain strong. 12 months to January 2019. NORTH SHORE OFFICE MARCH 2019 RESEARCH 8 6 7 5 2 Nest 1 3 4 17 10 19 9 15 13 18 16 11 14 12 Source of Map: Knight Frank Source of Map: Knight Frank North Sydney Macquarie Park/North Ryde 100 Mount St - 40,600m² [NBN Co]^ 45-61 Waterloo Road - Bld C - 35,000m² [GPNSW] 11-17 Khartoum Rd - 52,000m² 1 9 17 Dexus - Q2 2019 - 85% committed John Holland - Q4 2019 - 70% committed Stockland - Mooted 2 1 Denison St - 65,021m² [Nine Entertainment]# 10 Stage 2 97 Waterloo Rd -15,000m² [Schneider] 18 Epicentre at Riverside, 6-8 Julius Ave - 34,194m² Winten Property - H2 2020 - 50% committed Goodman - H2 2020 ISPT - Mooted 3 118 Mount St - 21,000m² [Zurich] 11 39 Delhi Rd - 30,000m² 19 45-61 Waterloo Road Bld - A,B,D,E,F - 82,000m² Zurich - H2 2020 - 75% committed Stockland - Mooted John Holland - Mooted 4 73 Miller Street - 19,000m² 12 1 Rivett Rd (Stage 2) - 11,380m² ProeprtyLink - H1 2020 Pathway Property - Mooted 13 396 Lane Cove Rd - 76,100m² Crows Nest/St Leonards Frasers Property / Winten Property Group - Mooted 5 472-486 Pacific Hwy - 4,600m2 14 29-35 Epping Rd -14,500m² Mirvac - Q4 2019 Harvey Norman Holdings - Mooted 15 76 RNS Hospital site - 25,000 m² [NSW Govt. 100%] 271 Lane Cove Rd - c.34,000m² NSW Government - H12021 Mirvac - Mooted 16 7 88 Christie St (Fronting Pacific Hwy) - 17,000m²** 8-10 University Ave - c.50,000m² * JQZ - 2020+ Macquarie University - Early Feasibility 8 Lot 3, Broadcast Way, Artarmon - 14,000m² > DA Approved Site 2 Record development activity The boom in new developments over the Over 145,000 sq m of new and Although no new supply was added to coming two years represents the largest refurbished office stock in North the North Sydney market in 2018, the supply addition over any two year period Sydney is set to come online over precinct is transforming. Over the next for the North Sydney market. The last the next two years, with 50% two years, the 145,000 sq m of record period was between 2009 and already pre-committed this commercial works currently in the 2010 when 78,000 sq m was added. expected to increase over the next pipeline is due to reach completion. The Although new supply will see a short- six months. three major projects under construction; term rise in backfill space, it is expected St Leonards recorded its highest 100 Mount Street (41,600 sq m, 85% to be a drawcard for tenants relocating six monthly absorption rate since pre-committed to NBN Co and Laing from neighbouring North Shore markets 2006, with 11,512 sq m of positive O’Rourke - Q2 2019), 1 Denison Street and the Sydney CBD. net absorption recorded over the (65,021 sq m, 30% pre-committed to six month period to January 2019. Nine Entertainment and SAP - Mid 2020) and 118 Mount Street (21,000 sq Prime and secondary markets in m, 75% pre-committed to Zurich—Late Chatswood recorded net effective 2020). rental growth of 12.1% and 9.5% FIGURE 1 respectively over the past 12 In addition to new development, North Sydney Office Supply months. landlords are repositioning existing Per six month period (000’ sq m) Macquarie Park recorded its assets with major refurbishment plans 80,000 lowest overall vacancy rate since also underway. 73 Miller Street (15,000 2005 of 4.8%, down from 5.6%, sq m) is expected to be withdrawn from 60,000 six months prior. mid-2019 to undergo a full 40,000 refurbishment, including an expansion in its office floor area to 17,500 sq m when 20,000 it comes back online from mid-2020. The refurbishment will see major tenant 0 NSW Department of Health relocate to -20,000 100 Christie Street in St Leonards on a short-term lease. -40,000 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Gross Supply Withdrawals Net Supply Senior Analyst Source: Knight Frank Research/PCA TABLE 1 North Shore Office Market Indicators as at January 2019 Total Vacancy Annual Net Avg Net Average Outgoings Core Market Market Grade Stock Rate Absorption Face Rent Incentive ($/sq m) Yield (%) (sq m)^ (%)^ (sq m)^ ($/sq m) (%)* North Sydney Prime 262,215 3.5 12,781 792 133 21.4 4.75 - 5.50 North Sydney Secondary 547,215 8.3 -16,867 653 129 19.9 5.25 - 5.50 North Sydney Total Market 809,430 6.8 -4,086 698 131 20.4 4.75 - 5.50 Crows Nest/St Leonards Prime 102,699 1.9 14,187 596 130 21.3 5.25 - 6.00 Crows Nest/St Leonards Secondary 204,182 8.2 415 540 105 22.3 5.75 - 6.25 Crows Nest/St Leonards Total Market 306,881 6.1 14,602 559 118 21.9 5.25 - 6.25 Chatswood Prime 157,412 3.9 4,000 539 128 21.3 5.25 - 6.00 Chatswood Secondary 121,507 9.1 -2,355 470 107 22.0 5.50 - 6.00 Chatswood Total Market 278,919 6.2 1,645 509 119 21.6 5.25 - 6.25 Macquarie Park Prime 644,824 3.5 3,582 398 100 22.0‡ 5.75 - 6.00 Macquarie Park Secondary 214,210 8.7 725 335 100 20.0‡ 6.00 - 6.50 Macquarie Park/North Ryde Total Market 859,034 4.8 4,307 382 100 21.5‡ 5.75 - 6.50 Source: Knight Frank Research/PCA * Incentives are on a Gross basis ‡ Incentives are on a Net basis ^ As at January 2019 Note. Average data is on a weighted basis. Yield ranges reflect the average lower and upper yields for a select basket of office assets in each market and grade Grade: Prime includes modern and A-Grade stock whilst Secondary includes B, C and D quality Grade. 3 NORTH SHORE OFFICE MARCH 2019 RESEARCH Tenant relocations temper (5,600 sq m), Nine Entertainment (15,500 Rental growth continues absorption levels sq m), NBN (20,000 sqm), Lang O’Rouke Low prime vacancy in North Sydney, in Absorption levels across the North (4,600 sq m) and Zurich (15,750 sq m), conjunction with office rents running at a Sydney market in the six months to there are a number of large tenant 28% (gross basis) discount to the January 2019 measured negative 4,644 mandates in the market that will have Sydney CBD, has underpinned prime sq m, resulting in negative absorption positive implications for absorption levels rental growth. Average prime gross face annually of 4,086 sq m. Whilst the first over the next 24 months. Tenants rents have increased by 4.7% over the half of 2018 saw strong absorption levels currently seeking options in North Sydney past year to $925/sq m ($792/ sq m net in the prime market of 16,347 sq m, this include Ooh Media (5,000 sq m), UGL face) as at January 2019. In addition, was not the case in the second half of Group (7,500 sq m), Microsoft (10,000 sq average prime incentives dropped 160 2018 with negative absorption of 3,566 m) and Fairfax Media (5,000 sq m). bps to 21.4%, resulting in gross effective sq m, which primarily stemmed from rental growth of 8.6% YoY. MasterCard vacating its largest North Vacancy remains below Sydney office at 100 Arthur Street and historical average In the secondary market, average gross relocating to 72 Christie Street, St The North Sydney overall vacancy rate face rents have risen by 5.5% YoY to Leonards. increased slightly in the six months to $782/sq m ($653/sq m net face) as at January 2019 from a 16 year low of 6.3% January 2019. Average secondary In the secondary market negative to 6.8%. Tenant relocation and negative incentives have dropped from 22% to 19 absorption levels were recorded for the absorption over the second half of 2018 -20% YoY, as at January 2019, boosting sixth consecutive period, with absorption has underpinned the uptick in vacancy. gross effective rents by 8.3% to measure totaling negative 1,078 sq m for the six Whilst vacancy has increased, it is still $626/sq m. months to January 2019. The negative 182bps below the 10-year average of absorption levels continue to be driven 8.6%. Record level of investment by the withdrawals of stock for Investment volumes into the North alternative uses. The withdrawal of 160 In the prime market, vacancy levels Sydney office market in 2018 reached Pacific Highway (1,000 sq m) for increased from 2.1% to 3.5% in the six the highest level in a decade with $1.58 residential conversion, in addition to months to January 2019. Within the prime billion transacting, a 90% increase on MasterCard vacating its second (smaller) market, Premium Grade vacancy has 2017 volumes.