AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS’ RESILIENCE TO DAMAGE: DETERMINATION OF INDEX OF SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOUNT KILIMANJARO, TANZANIA. Shirima Kelvine MSc. (Climate Change and Sustainable Development) Thesis University of Dar es Salaam May, 2014 AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS’ RESILIENCE TO DAMAGE: DETERMINATION OF INDEX OF SUSCEPTIBILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOUNT KILIMANJARO, TANZANIA. By Kelvine Shirima A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science (Climate Change and Sustainable Development) of the University of Dar es Salaam University of Dar-es-Salaam November, 2014 i CERTIFICATION The undersigned certifies that he has read and hereby recommends for acceptance by the University of Dar es Salaam a dissertation entitled: Agro-Ecosystems’ Resilience to Damage: Determination of Index of Susceptibility to Climate Change in Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Climate Change and Sustainable Development) of the Centre of Climate Change Studies, University of Dar es Salaam. ……………………………………………………… Prof. Claude G. Mung’ong’o (Supervisor) Date.................................... ............................................................................... Dr. Tino Johanson ……………………………………………… (Supervisor) Date………………………….. ……………………………………………. ii DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT I, Shirima Kelvine, declare that out of quotes and other people’s work of which I have consulted and acknowledged this thesis is the result of my original research work. This work has not been presented and will not be presented to any other University for a similar or any other degree award. Signature……………………………………. This dissertation is a copyright material protected under the Berne Convention, the Copyright Act of 1999 and other international and national enactments, in that behalf of the intellectual property. It may not be reproduced by any means, in full or part, except for short extracts in fair dealing, research or private study, critical scholarly review or discourse with an acknowledgement, without the written permission of the Directorate of Postgraduate Studies, on behalf of both the author and the University of Dar-es – Salaam. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost I give my humble gratitude to Almighty God for keeping me healthy and strong to accomplish this cumbersome task. I would also like to pass my sincere gratitude to International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) as a host of Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services and Food Security in Eastern Africa (CHIESA) project funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland to provide financial support. I also like to thanks my supervisors, Professor C. Mung’ong’o and Dr. Tino Johansson for their support and their tireless guidance from the beginning to the end of this research work. My gratitude extends to the University of Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro regional officers and Moshi rural district officers who helped on acquisition of permission to undertake this research. My gratitude is further extended to my research assistant Innocent Kessy for his effort of working tirelessly from the beginning of field data collection, without forgetting all my field assistants, the key informants and local government authorities of South Kirua Vunjo for their support to acquire the required and valid data for the research under subject. This work is not a function of only the mentioned people above, rather there are multitudes of people of whom I have not mentioned, but all in all I give them my special thanks where ever they are, may God give them with his grace for their contribution on this research. iv ABSTRACT This paper assesses maize-coffee-banana agro-ecosystems’ resilience to damage as well as computing the social-ecological vulnerability index to climate change on the southern slope of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. The study focused on identifying agronomic practices and assessing their impacts on agro-ecosystems’ resilience; examine the socio- economic status of the farmers in the region and its impacts on agro-ecosystems; and examine the agro-ecosystems’ natural resilience and assess social-ecological vulnerability index to the impacts of climate change. About 400 households was covered in this household survey with response rate of 97% where by farmers were asked on their farming practices and systems, key informants and transect walk was also employed in gathering necessary information. Study was carried out at a specific designed transect for a selected part of Kilimanjaro region between Kisangesangeni-Miwaleni (700 m.a.s.l) and Makunduchi/Kirua Vunjo (1600 m.a.s.l) of about 21.7 km long at the southern part of Mount Kilimanjaro in Moshi rural district. The study shows a significant variation in agronomic practices with altitude and lack of sufficient agro-ecosystem resilience framing like conservation agriculture including agro-forestry, conservation tillage, contouring and terracing, mulching, Mix- intercropping, and fallowing to mention a few; pest and disease control, soil conservation infrastructure, and off farm diversification were also key challenge to farmers. Social-ecological and economic Parameters was used in computation of vulnerability index. Because of variation in altitude which associates with different in microclimate and soils, the vulnerability also varied with altitude. Elements like household cooking energy (94.8%), agriculture as main source of household income (94.5%), off farm contribution to the household (34%) etc. has shown to have some implication on household on choosing alternatives options on adaptations. v TABLE CONTENTS CERTIFICATION .......................................................................................................................... i DECLARATION AND COPYRIGHT ........................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................................. iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... iv TABLE CONTENTS ...................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF PLATES ........................................................................... 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LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................... x INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Statement of the research problem .......................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objective of the study .............................................................................................................. 5 1.3.1 Specific objectives ................................................................................................................ 5 1.3.2 Research questions ................................................................................................................ 6 1.4 Significance of the Study ......................................................................................................... 6 LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Agriculture and Climate Change in Tanzania .......................................................................... 7 2.3 Agro-Ecosystem and Social-Ecological Resilience ................................................................. 9 2.4 Index of Behaviour-Based Indicators on Agro-Ecosystems Resilience ................................. 10 2.4.1 Socially self-organized ........................................................................................................ 11 2.4.2 Ecologically self-regulated ................................................................................................. 11 2.4.3 Appropriately connected ..................................................................................................... 12 2.4.4 High degree of functional and response diversity ............................................................... 12 2.4.5 High degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity ............................................................. 13 MATERIAL AND METHODS ................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2 Study area............................................................................................................................... 14 vi 3.2.1 Geographical location