Evaluation of Regional SLAMM Results to Establish a Consistent Framework of Data and Models Prepared for the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative June, 2015 Minor Revisions, March 2016 Evaluation of Regional SLAMM Results to Establish a Consistent Framework of Data and Models Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................................................... 3 Model Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 5 SLAMM Application Methods ....................................................................................................................... 7 Study Area ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Model Time steps .................................................................................................................................... 11 Sea Level Rise Scenarios .......................................................................................................................... 11 Gap Study Area Input Raster Preparation............................................................................................... 11 Elevation Data ..................................................................................................................................... 12 Slope Layer .......................................................................................................................................... 12 Elevation correction ............................................................................................................................ 12 Wetland Layers and translation to SLAMM wetland categories ........................................................ 12 Dikes and Impoundments ................................................................................................................... 13 Percent Impervious ............................................................................................................................. 13 Gap Study Areas Parameterization ......................................................................................................... 14 Erosion Rates....................................................................................................................................... 14 Historic sea level rise rates ................................................................................................................. 15 Tide Ranges ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Salt Elevation ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Accretion Rates ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Model Calibration ................................................................................................................................... 25 Elevation Pre-processor .......................................................................................................................... 26 Freshwater Flow Polygons ...................................................................................................................... 26 Flooded Swamp ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Considerations for individual study areas ............................................................................................... 27 Study Area 1 – Monroe County, FL ..................................................................................................... 27 Study Area 2 – Naples, FL .................................................................................................................... 28 Study Area 3 – Sarasota, FL ................................................................................................................. 28 Study Area 4 – Upstream Tampa, FL ................................................................................................... 28 Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. ii Study Area 5 – Lake Rousseau, FL ....................................................................................................... 28 Study Area 6 – Near Gainesville, FL .................................................................................................... 28 Study Area 7 – Upstream Lower Suwannee River, FL ......................................................................... 29 Study Area 8 – Tallahassee to Steinhatchee, FL.................................................................................. 29 Study Area 9 – St. Joe Bay and Carabelle, Florida ............................................................................... 29 Study Area 10 – Upstream Pensacola, FL ............................................................................................ 29 Study Areas 11 and 13 – Upstream Perdido, FL .................................................................................. 29 Study Area 12 – Upstream Mobile River, AL ....................................................................................... 29 Study Area 14 – Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana ............................................................................ 29 Study Area 16 – Dry Tortugas, Florida ................................................................................................ 29 Study Area 17 – Louisiana Chenier Plain ............................................................................................. 30 Study Area 18 – Galveston Bay, Texas ................................................................................................ 30 Study Area 19 – Matagorda and San Antonio Bays, Texas ................................................................. 30 Study Area 20 – Baffin Bay, South Texas ............................................................................................ 30 Study Area 21 – South of Tampa, FL ................................................................................................... 31 Focal Species Approach .......................................................................................................................... 31 Results and Discussion ................................................................................................................................ 33 Seaside Sparrow .................................................................................................................................. 44 Mottled Duck ...................................................................................................................................... 48 Black Skimmer ..................................................................................................................................... 62 Conclusions and Perspectives ..................................................................................................................... 71 Recommended Data Uses and Caveats .............................................................................................. 71 References .................................................................................................................................................. 73 Appendix A – Elevation Data Sources ....................................................................................................... A-1 Appendix B – Landcover Data Sources ...................................................................................................... B-1 Appendix C – Parameters for New Study Areas ......................................................................................... C-1 Appendix D – Focal Species Analysis Statistics ......................................................................................... D-1 Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. iii List of Figures Figure 1. Project Study Area ......................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2. Study Area Boundaries ................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 3. New Study Areas in Florida ............................................................................................................ 8 Figure 4. New Study Areas in Northern Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana ................................. 9 Figure 5. New Study Areas in Texas .............................................................................................................. 9 Figure 6. Average historical SLR trends data in the Gulf from NOAA Gauge Station ................................. 15 Figure 7. 30-day inundation height vs. great diurnal tide range for Florida ............................................... 16 Figure 8. Accretion Locations (yellow stars) in Study Area which could be assigned locations ................. 18 Figure 9. Derived MEM3 model with Louisiana-specific regularly-flooded