Floods Risks Following Wildland Fires a Case Study: Plain, Washington

Floods Risks Following Wildland Fires a Case Study: Plain, Washington

Floods Risks following Wildland Fires A Case Study: Plain, Washington A B Cover: Counter clockwise from the 2017 Google map image A near Plain WA illustrates a probable managed forest scenario. Clockwise from the 2006 image of the same area, B offers an unmanaged scenario. The low intensity prescribed burn picture was taken off the sanjuanheadwaters.org web page. The high intensity fire picture is of the 2006 Tripod Fire Complex taken off the Inciweb.org web site. See report for other picture sources. Table of Contents Introduction/Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 9 Research Approach ................................................................................................................................... 9 Forest Stresses and Resilience ................................................................................................................ 10 Scenarios ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 Risk Reduction and Uncertainty ............................................................................................................. 12 Background ................................................................................................................................................. 13 Fire Regimes ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Forests ................................................................................... 15 Fire Effects on the Ecosystem ................................................................................................................. 17 Fuel Management ................................................................................................................................... 18 Post-fire Rehabilitation ........................................................................................................................... 19 Soil Immobilization Treatments .............................................................................................................. 19 Channel Treatments ............................................................................................................................... 20 Streambank Protection ........................................................................................................................... 20 Reforestation .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Adaptive cycle .................................................................................................................................... 20 Study Area ................................................................................................................................................... 22 Policy Framework ................................................................................................................................... 22 Chelan County Comprehensive Plan .................................................................................................. 22 Chelan County Multi-Jurisdiction Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................... 24 Fire Adapted Communities (FAC) ....................................................................................................... 25 Firewise Communities Neighbor to Neighbor .................................................................................... 25 Scenario Planning ........................................................................................................................................ 26 Scenario Futures ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................................... 27 Flooding .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Flood risk mapping ............................................................................................................................. 28 Determination of discharge ............................................................................................................... 28 Population .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Scenario Futures ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Public Process ............................................................................................................................................. 34 Workshop ............................................................................................................................................... 34 Round 1: Community Values and Direction ........................................................................................... 35 Values ................................................................................................................................................. 35 Goals ................................................................................................................................................... 36 Round 2: Future Conditions (Four Scenarios) ........................................................................................ 36 Discussions ......................................................................................................................................... 36 Scenario 1: Local Renewal ................................................................................................................. 37 Impacted Values ................................................................................................................................. 40 Scenario 2: Community Transformation ............................................................................................ 43 Scenario 3: Local Reorganization ....................................................................................................... 48 Community Review and Comment Process ....................................................................................... 59 Round 3: Strategies................................................................................................................................. 59 Commonalities apparent from all scenarios ...................................................................................... 59 Major Themes .................................................................................................................................... 59 Risk Reduction Approaches Common to All Scenarios ...................................................................... 60 Reducing fire risk to life and property................................................................................................ 60 Pathways that would reduce choices of future actions ..................................................................... 61 Survey ................................................................................................................................................. 62 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................. 63 Uncertainties .......................................................................................................................................... 63 Addressing Uncertain Futures ................................................................................................................ 63 References .................................................................................................................................................. 65 Appendix A: First Steering Committee Meeting Participant List ................................................................ 72 Appendix B: Second Steering Committee Meeting Participant List............................................................ 73 Appendix C: Workshop Participant List....................................................................................................... 74 Appendix D: Wildfires as Drivers................................................................................................................. 75 Appendix E: Projecting Post-Wildfire Flooding Exposure & Vulnerability .................................................. 77 Appendix F: Workshop Meeting Notes ....................................................................................................... 81 Appendix G: Survey ................................................................................................................................... 101 Appendix H: Improvement ........................................................................................................................ 109 Figure 1: Study area: Community of Plain, WA ............................................................................................

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