Japanese Technology Evaluation Center JTEC JTEC Panel Report on Electronic Manufacturing and Packaging in Japan Michael J. Kelly, Chair William R. Boulton John A. Kukowski Eugene S. Meieran Michael Pecht John W. Peeples Rao R. Tummala February 1995 International Technology Research Institute R.D. Shelton, Director Geoffrey M. Holdridge, WTEC Director Loyola College in Maryland 4501 North Charles Street Baltimore, Maryland 21210-2699 JTEC PANEL ON ELECTRONIC MANUFACTURING AND PACKAGING IN JAPAN Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Commerce of the United States Government Dr. Michael J. Kelly (Chair) Dr. Michael Pecht Georgia Institute of Technology CALCE - EPRC Manufacturing Research Center University of Maryland 813 Ferst Drive College Park, MD 20742 Atlanta, GA 30332-0560 Dr. John Peeples Dr. William R. Boulton AT&T Center for International Commerce Global Information Solutions Auburn University West Columbia, SC Suite 109 Business Building 415 West Magnolia Ave. Dr. Rao Tummala Auburn, AL 36849 Georgia Institute of Technology Manufacturing Research Center Mr. John Kukowski 813 Ferst Drive Rochester Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30332-0560 Manufacturing Engineering Technology James E. Gleason Building - #9 78 Lom Memorial Drive Rochester, NY 14623-5604 Dr. Gene Meieran Intel Corporation 500 W. Chandler Boulevard MS - CH 2-23 Chandler, AZ 85226 INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE JTEC/WTEC PROGRAM The Japanese Technology Evaluation Center (JTEC) and its companion World Technology Evaluation Center (WTEC) at Loyola College provide assessments of foreign research and development in selected technologies under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). Loyola's International Technology Research Institute (ITRI), R.D. Shelton, Director, is the umbrella organization for JTEC and WTEC. Paul Herer, Senior Advisor for Planning and Technology Evaluation at NSF's Engineering Directorate, is NSF Program Director for JTEC and WTEC. Other U.S. government agencies that provide support for the program include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, and the Department of Defense. JTEC/WTEC's mission is to inform U.S. policy makers, strategic planners, and managers about the state of selected technologies in foreign countries in comparison to the United States. JTEC/WTEC assessments cover basic research, advanced development, and applications/commercialization. Small panels of about six technical experts conduct JTEC/WTEC assessments. Panelists are leading authorities in their field, technically active, and knowledgeable about U.S. and foreign research programs. As part of the assessment process, panels visit and carry out extensive discussions with foreign scientists and engineers in universities and in industry/government labs. The ITRI staff at Loyola College help select topics, recruit expert panelists, arrange study visits to foreign laboratories, organize workshop presentations, and finally, edit and disseminate the final reports. Dr. Michael J. DeHaemer Mr. Geoff Holdridge Dr. George Gamota Principal Investigator JTEC/WTEC Staff Director Senior Advisor to JTEC/WTEC Loyola College Loyola College Mitre Corporation Baltimore, MD 21210 Baltimore, MD 21210 Bedford, MA 01730 JTEC Panel on Electronic Manufacturing and Packaging in Japan FINAL REPORT February 1995 Michael J. Kelly, Chair William R. Boulton John A. Kukowski Eugene S. Meieran Michael Pecht John W. Peeples Rao R. Tummala William R. Boulton, Editor ISBN 1-883712-37-8 This document was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Advanced Research Projects Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Commerce of the United States Government under NSF Cooperative Agreement ENG-9217849, awarded to the International Technology Research Institute at Loyola College in Maryland. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Government, the authors' parent institutions, or Loyola College. ABSTRACT This report summarizes the status of electronic manufacturing and packaging technology in Japan in comparison to that in the United States, and its impact on competition in electronic manufacturing in general. In addition to electronic manufacturing technologies, the report covers technology and manufacturing infrastructure, electronics manufacturing and assembly, quality assurance and reliability in the Japanese electronics industry, and successful product realization strategies. The panel found that Japan leads the United States in almost every electronics packaging technology. Japan clearly has achieved a strategic advantage in electronics production and process technologies. Panel members believe that Japanese competitors could be leading U.S. firms by as much as a decade in some electronics process technologies. Japan has established this marked competitive advantage in electronics as a consequence of developing low-cost, high-volume consumer products. Japan’s infrastructure, and the remarkable cohesiveness of vision and purpose in government and industry, are key factors in the success of Japan’s electronics industry. Although Japan will continue to dominate consumer electronics in the foreseeable future, opportunities exist for the United States and other industrial countries to capture an increasingly large part of the market. The JTEC panel has identified no insurmountable barriers that would prevent the United States from regaining a significant share of the consumer electronics market; in fact, there is ample evidence that the United States needs to aggressively pursue high-volume, low-cost electronic assembly, because it is a critical path leading to high-performance electronic systems. JTEC/WTEC Michael J. DeHaemer, Principal Investigator, Director Geoffrey M. Holdridge, Staff Director and JTEC/WTEC Series Editor Bobby A. Williams, Assistant Director Catrina M. Foley, Secretary Aminah Batta, Editorial Assistant Patricia M.H. Johnson, Editor Advance Work performed by M. Gene Lim of SEAM International International Technology Research Institute at Loyola College R. D. Shelton, Director Copyright 1995 by Loyola College in Maryland except as otherwise noted. The U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive and nontransferable license to exercise all exclusive rights provided by copyright. The ISBN number for this report is 1-883712-37-8. This report is distributed by the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce as NTIS Report # PB95-188116. Information on ordering from NTIS and a list of JTEC/WTEC reports available from NTIS are included on the inside back cover of this report. i FOREWORD The National Science Foundation (NSF) has been involved in funding technology assessments comparing the United States and foreign countries since 1983. A sizable proportion of this activity has been in the Japanese Technology Evaluation Center (JTEC) and World Technology Evaluation Center (WTEC) programs. NSF has supported more than thirty JTEC and WTEC studies over a wide range of technical topics. As U.S. technological leadership is challenged in areas of previous dominance such as aeronautics, space, and nuclear power, many governmental and private organizations seek to set policies that will help maintain U.S. strengths. To do this effectively requires an understanding of the relative position of the United States and its competitors. The purpose of the JTEC/WTEC program is to assess research and development efforts in other countries in specific areas of technology, to compare these efforts and their results to U.S. research in the same areas, and to identify opportunities for international collaboration in precompetitive research. Many U.S. organizations support substantial data gathering and analysis efforts directed at nations such as Japan. But often the results of these studies are not widely available. At the same time, government and privately sponsored studies that are in the public domain tend to be "input" studies; that is, they provide enumeration of inputs to the research and development process, such as monetary expenditures, personnel data, and facilities, but do not provide an assessment of the quality or quantity of the outputs obtained. Studies of the outputs of the research and development process are more difficult to perform because they require a subjective analysis performed by individuals who are experts in the relevant technical fields. The NSF staff includes professionals with expertise in a wide range of disciplines. These individuals provide the technical expertise needed to assemble panels of experts that can perform competent, unbiased, technical reviews of research and development activities. Specific technologies, such as telecommunications, biotechnology, microelectromechanical systems, and nuclear power, are selected for study by government agencies that have an interest in obtaining the results of an assessment and are able to contribute to its funding. A typical assessment is sponsored by two to four agencies. In the first few years of the program, most of the studies focused on Japan, reflecting concern over Japan's growing economic prowess. Studies were largely defined by a few federal mission agencies that contributed most