Country Report September 2003 Pacific Islands September 2003 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. 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Pacific Islands 3 Summary September 2003 Outlook for 2003-04 Political instability and economic weakness will continue to hinder the development of the Pacific island nations, although there are hopes that greater Australian involvement in the region will provide fresh impetus to efforts aimed at dealing with some of the islands’ many problems. The political scene In a surprise development, Greg Urwin, an Australian former diplomat, has been appointed secretary-general designate of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). He will be the first non-Pacific islander to hold the post. Economic policy and the The prospect of a Pacific Economic and Political Community has raised interest domestic economy in the ideas of a regional single currency, and of Pacific Islanders being given greater rights to work in Australia. Tourist arrivals are set to rise in the second half of 2003. However, increased competition could spell trouble for some of the islands’ own airlines. Editors: Kate Allard (editor); Graham Richardson (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: August 29th 2003 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report September 2003 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2003 4 Pacific Islands Outlook for 2003-04 Instability and poor governance Political instability and economic weakness will continue to hinder the will hinder development development of the Pacific island nations. Poverty, racial tensions, law-and- order problems and poor governance are rife in countries such as the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji, and will deter much-needed foreign investment. The significant differences between the islands make generalisations difficult. However, overpopulation, environmental degradation, corruption, weak or non-existent growth, vulnerability to periodic cyclone damage and a proliferation of small arms mean that many island governments are finding it increasingly difficult to protect and provide for the most disadvantaged sections of their populations. The Economist Intelligence Unit remains pessimistic about the ability of existing governments in the region to address these issues. Greater Australian engagement Concern about instability in the region has increased since the bombing in Bali, raises hopes of progress Indonesia, in 2002 and, more recently, the bombing of a hotel in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. This has led the Australian government, in particular, to take far more interest in the affairs of the small island states, amid fears that the breakdown of their political systems could lead to infiltration by terrorists. There are hopes that greater Australian involvement in the region, as demonstrated by the country’s newfound willingness to intervene directly to prevent the Solomon Islands from descending further into lawlessness, will provide fresh impetus to efforts to deal with some of the islands’ many problems. The Australian prime minister, John Howard, has already spoken of his belief that the island nations should pool their limited resources to provide essential services, such as policing and air travel, and he has gone as far as to suggest that they could form a federal government. The appointment of an Australian diplomat as head of the main regional body, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), is likely to lead to further debate on such proposals, which are not without merit. However, the success of Australia’s greater engagement will depend in part on how sensitively the Australian government pushes such issues, as any heavy- handedness is likely to be poorly received by island governments anxious not to cede any sovereignty. Indeed, while island governments gave their blessing to the Australian-led intervention in the Solomon Islands, many politicians expressed fears of an Australian takeover in the region, suggesting that the action had lowered the bar to direct intervention and could lead Australia to intervene more readily in other troublespots. This would appear unlikely, given that the levels of lawlessness and social collapse in the Solomons are so much more serious than elsewhere. However, intervention in other island trouble- spots cannot be ruled out, should there be a sudden flare-up in one of the other island nations. Country Report September 2003 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2003 Pacific Islands 5 The island nations will depend The support of aid donors and financial institutions will be critical to the heavily on foreign aid development of the Pacific island nations, which for the most part lack the resources to extricate themselves from their current predicaments. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) will continue to provide financial and technical support for a broad range of projects and initiatives. Substantial funds will also be made available to Pacific island nations over the next few years under the Cotonou Agreement, an accord signed in June 2000 to succeed the Lomé Convention in setting out relations between the EU and the 78 African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states. These funds will be channelled into projects in areas such as fisheries, tourism, investment and trade facilitation. Many of the island nations will also benefit from funding and expertise via the donor programmes of Australia and New Zealand, both of which have experience in peacekeeping and strong links with many island communities through large expatriate populations. However, aid donors can only work through conventional channels, funding projects for capacity building, rewarding efforts to improve transparency and accountability, and advocating greater fiscal discipline, private-sector development and the facilitation of foreign investment. Any progress is, therefore, likely to be slow. Moreover, there is concern that aid is feeding a culture of dependency and blunting the incentive for structural reform. Financial aid is thus likely to become increasingly conditional on the achieve- ment by recipient counties of tangible progress in areas such as law and order, standards of governance and the reform of bloated public sectors. The political scene An Australian has been In a surprise development and a break with tradition, Greg Urwin, an appointed as secretary-general Australian and a former high commissioner to Fiji, Samoa and Vanuatu, was appointed secretary-general designate of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) at the organisation’s annual summit in mid-August. Mr Urwin will replace Noel Levi, from Papua New Guinea, who has already served two terms (under PIF rules tenure is limited to two three-year terms). The post of secretary-general, the top regional position, has always been filled by a Pacific islander, and the leaders of some of the smaller PIF member states, including Nauru and the Cook Islands, were unhappy at the aggressiveness of Australian lobbying for their candidate. Indeed, at one point the sub-group of six small island nations (comprising the Marshall Islands, the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Nauru and Niue) appeared to veto Mr Urwin’s appointment, suspicious