Ι∆ΡΥΜΑ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ & ΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΚΩΝ ΕΡΕΥΝΩΝ FOUNDATION FOR ECONOMIC & INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH Τ. Καρατάσσου 11, 117 42 Αθήνα , T ηλ .: 210 92 11 200 -10, Fax: 210 92 33 977, www.iobe.gr 11 T. Karatas sou Str. , 117 42 Athens, Greece, Tel.: (+3 0) 210 92 11 200 -10, Fax: (+3 0) 210 92 33 977 TheThe GreekGreek EconomyEconomy underunder Reform:Reform: TurningTurning thethe TideTide Yannis Stournaras Professor of Economics, Dept. of Economics, University of Athens & General Director IOBE Spyros Travlos Consultant, Corporate Restructuring Nicholas Ventouris Economist – Research Associate IOBE The Lisbon Council, Brussels February 27, 2012 GreeceGreece needsneeds aa shiftshift inin aggregateaggregate supplysupply && inin aggregateaggregate demanddemand (through(through investment)investment) Competitiveness 200 180 SS ΄ 160 140 DD ΄ 120 Ο 100 DD 80 SS 60 EL 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920 Unemployment Rate 2 GrowthGrowth PotentialPotential –– PolicyPolicy SuggestionsSuggestions A. Access to the largest bail-out scheme and to €15bn from European Structural Funds B. Large potential from market liberalization, reforms, privatization and the development of idle state property C. Rising sectors and investment opportunities D. 10-year growth horizon needed – “Greece 2020” Business Plan: To account for the macroeconomic effects of reforms, privatization and the rebalancing of the Greek economy away from consumption and towards exports, import substitution & investment. To focus on sectors with comparative advantage (tourism, transportation (regional hub in Southeastern Europe), agriculture / fishery, green renewable energy, education, mineral resources, technology). Problems with the current policy mix • Despite improvement compared to 2009, Competitiveness & Unemployment recent large deviations from fiscal targets the road to convergence • Liquidity squeeze, credit crunch due to banking problems 5th MoU (December 2011) • Large increases in indirect taxation instead of drastic reduction in current expenditure • Drastic cuts in public investment to meet the deficit target Competitiveness Competitiveness 1st MoU (May 2010) • Very limited structural reforms (product, EL services, professions and labor markets still overregulated) Unemployment Rate • Very limited progress in removing barriers to private investment & entrepreneurship Inflation & Output gap Πληθωρισµός και παραγωγικό κενό (out of 250 barriers, less than 10% have 6 been removed) Real Effective 4 Exchange Rate • Very limited privatizations and no 2 Inflation CPI Labor Cost development of state lands 0 Outputπαραγωγικό Gap κενό 2010 -0.3 -7.0 -2 2011 0.9 -3.5 Price rigidities despite wage flexibility -4 -6 Recession larger than expected -8 -10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 44 Large potential benefits from reforms will provide new sources of growth and facilitate fiscal adjustment ce an ? nh s Potential Gains from Market Liberalization & the elimination of the investment e es ce n ee ive impediments: Gr tit n pe Ca m co Structural measures could produce benefits as large as 17% of GDP in the long run its (increase 10% of GDP within 5 years), according to the GIMF model calibrated by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) Long-term effects of increased competition in markets of non-tradable goods-services and deregulation in the labor market (% changes w.r.t pre-reforms period) Non-Tradable Sector Labor Market Overall Effect Effect Effect GDP 13.5 3.2 17.0 Private Consumption 15.5 3.7 19.6 Private Investment 12.4 2.8 15.6 Real wage 12.8 -0.6 12.2 Employment (hours) 1.5 3.4 4.8 Exports 8.4 2.0 10.5 Imports 6.4 1.7 8.3 Source: ΙΟΒΕ , estimations by calibrating the IMF DSGE model (GIMF) to Greek/Euro Area economic conditions. 55 Greece can quickly gain lost ground in structural competitiveness Loss of Structural Competitiveness Barriers to entrepreneurship (2008) 1 • IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook : Index scale of 0-6 from least to more restrictive 56 th position in 2011 (out of 59 countries) • World Economic Forum: 83 rd position in 2010 (out of 139 countries) • Doing Business Report (World Bank): 100 th position among 183 countries in 2011 As a result of overregulated goods, services & labor markets, and the more than 250 1 restrictions on private investment and Regulation of professional services (2008) entrepreneurship, the average profit Index scale of 0-6 from least to more restrictive margin in the non-tradable goods & services sector is 15% higher than the relevant eurozone margin, while in the labor market the margin is 10% higher (vs. eurozone) • Serious Investment Impediments: Environmental licensing, Land use legislation Sources: OECD Economic Surveys: Greece, AUG 2011 1 The reference year is 2008 for all countries. The product market regulation & indicators for Greece for 2011 are based on an intermediate update conducted in the context of the OECD survey, thus accounting for the recent reforms towards improving business environment and opening closed 6 professions Greece has lost cost competitiveness (relative unit labor cost) - but it is not alone Relative unit labor cost has increased by 19% during 2000-2010, but this is broadly in line with the performance of the periphery of the EU. 30% 25% 22% 20% 19% 19% 16% 12% 11% 10% 10% Increase in relative unit labor cost 0% (performance relative to the rest 35 industrial countries) -5% -10% -13% -20% -22% -30% -30% -40% d ly e 7 m al n n c -1 ce u g any UK a Ita ee Z n USA E Spain ra rtu m Jap Irela Gr F elgi o B P Ger 15.0% Relative unit labor cost (% y-o-y change) Greece 11.4% (performance relative to the rest 35 industrial countries) 10.0% 10.1% In 2010-2011 cost EZ-17 competitiveness has 4.2% 5.0% 3.2% 4.2% 4.8% 2.7% 1.8% improved significantly . 1.1% 0.7% 3.2% 4.0% 1.7% 2.4% -0.7% 1.6% 0.0% Relative Unit Labor Cost: -0.3% -3.2% -2.2% -2.4% -5.0% -6.7% -3.0% -3.9% 2005-2009: +7.5%, -4.5% 2010-2012f: -6.8% -7.6% -10.0% -10.4% -15.0% 5 02 08 11 000 2 2001 20 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 20 2009 2010 20 2012f Note: we account for the nominal unit labor cost 7 Source: European Commission Statistical Annex, Autumn 2011 Public debt evolution scenarios (IOBE estimates) Scenarios Baseline A B Scenario C D Debt / GDP 2020 210.6% 145.4% 123.1% 116.2% 102.0% Gen. Gov. Deficit (% of GDP) 2020 5.4% 1.4% 0.7% -0.6% -1.1% PSI 2012 (% of GDP) 0.0% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% Privatization Revenues (2014-2020) (% of GDP) 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 22.3% 27.9% Primary Surplus (avg 2014-2020) (% of GDP) 3.1% 3.1% 4.1% 5.1% 5.1% Nominal GDP growth rate (avg 2014-2020) 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.3% Scenario A assumes no privatization 240.0% revenues & no PSI . Debt / GDP (IOBE estimates) 219.9% 220.0% Scenario B additionally takes into account (assume an implicit interest rate 2012-2020 of 210.6% the PSI (95% participation, EUR 107bn debt 200.0% 3.5% - Scenario A: 4.4%) reduction), which results to a debt reduction of 180.0% 64pps of GDP. 164.7% 157.0% The Baseline Scenario additionally accounts 160.0% 144.9% for privatization revenues amounting to EUR 155.6% 145.4% 140.0% 47bn, resulting in a debt reduction of 22pps of 123.1% GDP. 120.0% 112.6% 116.2% 103.4% Scenario C additionally assumes a 1% 97.4% 100.0% 102.0% higher primary surplus vs. the baseline, Moreover, we assume that the bank recapitalization will Scenario A Scenario B reach EUR 40bn, which will not be later retrieved as resulting in a debt reduction of 7pps of GDP. 80.0% Baseline Scenario Scenario C Scenario D privatization revenue. Scenario D additionally assumes a 1% 60.0% higher nominal growth rate vs . the baseline, 0 3 4 6 7 9 0 3 6 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 02 0 05 0 08 0 0 0 11 0 12 0 15 0 18 2 0 2 0 01 2 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 0 14 2 2 0 2 0 2 2 0 2 0 resulting in a debt reduction by 14pps of GDP. 8 InvestmentInvestment InitiativesInitiatives –– UrgentUrgent needneed forfor aa GrowthGrowth MemorandumMemorandum Use EC Structural Funds to strengthen the privatization process – Boost private investments – Development of Public Real Estate Property – ‘Fast Track’ mentality Catalyst for solvency and growth: PRIORITY 1: • Infrastructure : Airports, Ports, Motorways, Touristic Facilities (marinas) Income will be generated from abroad • Energy : PPC, Public Gas Corporation, Hellenic Petroleum PRIORITY 2: • Telecommunications : Hellenic Telecommunications Organization, Frequency Spectrum Liberalization of the energy market / • Gaming : OPAP, Hellenic Casino of Parnitha, Hellenic Horse Racing Organization, State Lottery selling of lignite power stations • Banking Sector : ATEbank, Loan & Consignment Fund, Hellenic Postbank Privatizations PRIORITY 3: • Real Estate (state owned) The Greek State owns large real estate property • Other holdings : LARCO, TRAINOSE, Hellenic Defense Systems, Hellenic Vehicle Industry, Hellenic Post • Private – Public sector partnership : e.g. public hospital infrastructure currently operating below capacity Enhancing competitiveness: • New Opportunities : High-quality tourism, Medical Tourism • Higher traffic from Asia is one of the driving forces of this upward trend. The share of travelers to Greece from Asia to the total number of Tourism international arrivals, has more than doubled in just one year, thus making Asia the departure area with the second largest share, after Europe (c. 89% of total).